I think that's a fair point, but I think the bigger issue is personnel based, it's an issue of roster construction. Can we at least agree that most players in the NBA shouldn't be taking midrange shots? There was a point in the game last night where JJ Reddick was about to shoot a 3 above the break, but there was a defender flying at him full speed. Reddick faked the shot as the defender flew by him, took one dribble inside the 3 point line, and shot a wide open 22 footer and swished it. The play got posted to twitter with a lot of comments like "rockets take note" and "I wish the rockets were smart enough to do this." The reason I say this is personnel based is because I want to ask the question, what percent do you think Houston shooters make that shot? Someone on twitter suggested Reddick probably hits it 55% of the time, I think that's a decent approximation. That's a great play, a 55% 2 pointer is a shot that any offense wants. But we don't have Reddick on our team, or anything close to it. How often do our guys make that exact same shot? I think House, Shumpert, or PJ Tucker hit that shot under 40% of the time. I think Gordon and Harden hit it under 45% of the time. And I think THIS is the reason that we don't take these kinds of shots. One of the biggest myths on this board is that Harden is a great midrange player. If you look at Hardens midrange numbers, or Eric Gordon from when he was in New Orleans, neither of these guys have ever been efficient midrange shooters at any point in their careers. This is back when they used to practice them every day and shoot a bunch of them every game. I think with Harden it's a major case of being fooled by the eye test, because anyone who watched the Rockets back in the McHale days remembers him knocking down those step back jumpers like it's nothing. But as I said, I think we are/were fooled by the eye test. The point I'm trying to make here is that, while the midrange game isn't completely dead, for our team it mostly is, and I don't think that's the wrong decision. We do not have good midrange shooters on our team. It's tough to watch Curry, Durant, or Klay knock them down with ease and feel like our offense is missing a big piece of something. But I would argue there are maybe 25 or 30 guys at most that can knock down those shots at a high enough percentage for it to be good offense. I think Chris Paul is one of them, and that's why he takes a lot of those shots. So, I think this "simplistic" implementation of Moreyball is more of a roster issue than a decision making (or coaching) issue.
The only change I would make is for Harden and specifically Harden to take the 10-15 ft jumper if he's open from time to time. Just to keep the defense honest. Analogous to a high passing attack football team that runs the ball every now and then to keep the defense honest. Prevents the offense from becoming too predictable. Related to that, I bet if Morey were a football GM, he'd have his team pass every single down and go for it on every manageable 4th down.
yes most players shouldn't be routinely taking midrange Js and our roster definitely is an issue. But even if you're a 35% midrange shooter (when covered, probably higher if uncontested), just occasionally displaying willingness to launch from the mid area puts different pressure on the defense. It doesn't even have to be that often; just don't completely discard huge chunks of the basketball court because if you do that, now you've willfully limited yourself and the defenses will certainly take advantage of that. And if the Rockets want to run this simplified version of Moreyball against weaker competition that's all good. But it won't work against better teams with better coaches and scouts, because now you've shown them all of your cards and they will adjust their defensive schemes accordingly. Maybe the team needs to be a little more flexible when they're going against other elite opponents, and inject an element of surprise for a few games to throw them for a loop. It's at least worth a try.
What you're saying here is that, if we started shooting low percentage midrange shots, the defense would adjust. In theory, if we start shooting those shots, the defense will be forced to adjust the way they defend us, and these adjustments would give us a little bit more space in other spots. We can both agree here that this would be a good thing. But, what it really boils down to is this - can we hit those midrange shots at a high enough rate that it forces the defense to adjust? And I think this is where we are just going to have to agree to disagree. I think your answer to this question is "of course they would", but I think the answer is "probably not." I don't think we have the right players on our roster to hit those shots at a high enough percentage that the defense would change at all.
I'm in favor of 1 player on the court at a time being designated and allowed to shoot out of the key 2's on the regular. That way it can mix the opponents defense up, the players know exactly who who it is & it wont cause too much conflict with the root of our style.
Harden, for instance, shot 44.4% from 10-16 ft and 46.7% from 3-10 ft this season. CP3 shot 46.9% from 10-16ft and 55.1% from 16-24ft. Gerald Green shot 48.6% from 3-10 ft and 42.9% from 16-24ft. Compare that to Kawhi's number (half of his made shots are mid Js): 46.4% from 3-10ft, 47.2% from 10-16ft, and 44% from 16-24 ft. I agree that EG and Austin Rivers shouldn't be taking midrange jumpers, but even for them, when left completely uncovered, a pull up from near the free throw line shouldn't be out of option. In the end, 40% of any shot is enough to make the defense respect your shot attempt, and when not heavily contested, we do have few players that can shoot better than that from the mid area.
Very interesting reasoning, the psychological impact of missing many 3's in a row is something not talked about. I mean, if I'm a player allowed only to shoot 3's, and I'm missing them BADLY, how can I be confident in my shot?? Why not try a fake and get inside the arc to shot 2's even if it's "statistically " inefficient??? I'm convinced if they had tried to shot some midrange last year vs Warriors -instead of launching too many threes and miss them- they would've won even if the game was obviously rigged. There are some aspects missing in Morey analytics for sure, but unfortunately they don't want to try something different.
AWESOME basically 'the analytics' forgets that midrange is not only a mere 2pt shoot .. its a UNIQUE device for tuning your aiming mechanism...(amongst several other things) the same way harden needs to dribble a couple of times before launching a 3pter for higher accuracy sometimes you need closer shots before you launch 10 3s in a row... you need to feel the basket and see the ball going through the net... looking at everything through shot efficiency lenses is foolishness....its like never drinking a coffee or a drink at local caffe shop because its cheaper (more efficient) at home....
Couldn't agree more, if I'm not mistaken, probabilities and variables are part of the analytics, so Morey should know that even if 3>2, shots may not fall from 3, thus making it more evident that you should try shooting 2's. Same thing for a player getting hot, they give him the ball more often assuming he'll make the shots. So the opposite is true, when you're cold from 3 or the defense gives you WIDE open 2's, SHOOT THEM!
People clearly know Houston Rockets wont take mid range shots. It helps a lot for rival team's defense plan.
How to guard Rockets? Easy. Defending their threes and Capela. Done! No need to worry about the area between downtown and lane. They dont take mid range shots!!!
I'm starting to strongly consider trading Capella for a more versatile center who can shot 3 and create his own shot
That article sums things up nicely. The Rockets are trying to build an offense off FT attempts. NBA fans hate watching FT contests. The league will do what it can to shut that down. That’s why we are seeing fixed games. They are going to discourage the NBA from becoming what Morey is trying to exploit.
