First real threat in the Atlantic is on its way. This storm could be one to start following by mid next week in regards to the Gulf. http://www.brevardtimes.com/2018/07/noaa-hurricane-beryl-projected-path-spaghetti-models/
No storm-related deaths for Hurricane Lane from what I read. Which is great. But, I'm a little surprised. It was a heavy flooding event like Harvey and Harvey killed 3 dozen people.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/l...nt-in-the-gulf-this-coming-week/285-590132681 “The European model, long championed as one of the better models, takes a healthy tropical storm into southeast Louisiana very early Wednesday morning south of New Orleans. Upon landfall, the systems path is blocked by a building area of high pressure to the north and the remnants of that system would then move along the coast towards southeast Texas with the center of whatever remains parked over Houston very early Friday morning, pre dawn. The system is still in the area all the way through Sunday morning before moving southwest towards Laredo on Tuesday morning.” Something to keep an eye on this week...
Its been a very quiet year so far. No hurricanes in the Atlantic during the month of Aug. We may only see one hurricane come ashore in the US for the month of September.
I think what I was reading about this one---not to ignore the lashing the Carolinas are about to take---is how it could stall out a bit, with no steering currents. I'm not saying "Harvey-style." Anyway, we're probably in for another wet weekend to cap a rainy week.
Florence the Machine has already blown up to a Cat 4 this morning -- I'm betting we have a big C5 sometime today.
Isaac's track takes it along Latitude 15N Maybe be in GOM by next Monday. Things have really fired up now.
Disturbance 37 Advisory 1 Chance of Development: 70 percent. Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Monday September 10, 2018 Current Location: 19N, 86W Geographic Reference: Over the Northwest Caribbean Movement: Northwest at 10 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 50 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Key Points 1. Whether or not the disturbance develops, it will produce gusty wind, heavy squalls, and rough seas across the northwest Gulf lease areas on from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. 2. Heavy rain is likely for the mid to upper Texas coast on Thursday and Friday. Our Forecast Squalls associated with Disturbance 37 over the northwest Caribbean Sea have become more concentrated over the past 12 hours, which is a sign that development chances are increasing. The disturbance will be tracking across the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 24 hours and emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow evening. Once in the Gulf, it will encounter an environment that would be a little more favorable for development. We think that there is about a 70 percent chance that this disturbance will develop a circulation center and become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm before it moves ashore into the lower Texas coast near Corpus Christi late Friday afternoon. The disturbance will spread heavy squalls into the northwest Gulf lease areas by Wednesday afternoon. These squalls may produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and locally rough seas, regardless of whether or not the disturbance develops into a tropical depression or storm. The system should move inland into the lower to mid Texas coast on Friday afternoon/evening, quite possibly as a weak tropical storm. The main threat inland across Texas will be from heavy rainfall, not wind. Expected Impacts Offshore Offshore Texas: Squalls moving into the deepwater areas during the afternoon on Wednesday and spreading northwest to the coast on Thursday afternoon. Wind gusts to 60 mph in heavier squalls, along with locally rough seas. Expected Impacts Inland Lower to Middle Texas Coast: Heavy showers and thunderstorms moving ashore Thursday and Friday, resulting in localized flooding issues and travel delays. Our next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT Meteorologist: Chris Hebert Forecast Confidence: Average The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
