Stephen A. Smith: CP3 is the biggest loser of the offseason. Thunder is better than Houston.

LMAO @swyyyguy
Your Mavs are 200/1

 

got this from Reddit...Kevin Pelton's RPM projections still have us 2nd in the West

"Before adding Anthony, the Thunder came in a surprising fifth in West projections using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) despite dealing for Paul George earlier this summer. Anthony hasn't rated particularly well by RPM, but he does project better than departed Oklahoma City reserves Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott.

So much how does the Thunder's projection improve? And what can that tell us about the West playoff race? Let's take a look.

Projecting Oklahoma City's rotation

The first question we have to ask to project the Thunder is how Billy Donovan will set up his new rotation, which has changed dramatically with the arrival of Anthony and George via trade and Raymond Felton and Patrick Patterson via free agency.

Dealing Kanter does leave Oklahoma City without a backup to starting center Steven Adams. I've projected that rookie Dakari Johnson (eight minutes per game) and veteran Nick Collison (three minutes per game) will get some of Kanter's playing time, with the rest going to smaller lineups featuring either Patterson or Jerami Grant as a center.

Because Anthony figures to play regularly and perhaps even start at power forward -- a position he told reporters at Monday's media day he embraces playing for the Thunder -- Donovan probably will need to go small to find enough minutes for Patterson and Grant. Making those changes and giving Anthony 33 minutes per game, down a bit from his 2016-17 average of 34.3, yields the following rotation and RPM projections:

Projected Thunder Rotation

PLAYER MPG RPM

Paul George 36 2.7

Russell Westbrook 34 4.8

Carmelo Anthony 33 -0.1

Steven Adams 30 1.6

Andre Roberson 30 1.3

Patrick Patterson 20 1.9

Jerami Grant 19 -2.3

Alex Abrines 18 -1.1

Raymond Felton 18 -2.4

Kyle Singler 8 -2.2

Dakari Johnson 8 -1.1

Nick Collison 3 -1.3

Projecting the Thunder

The most surprising aspect of the original RPM projection for the Thunder was their ranking 16th in projected defensive rating, having finished with the NBA's 10th-best defense in 2016-17. A second unit of Kanter (minus-1.1 projected defensive RPM, particularly poor for a center) and McDermott (minus-2.3) was a key factor in that weak projection.

So despite the fact that Anthony (minus-1.7) is no stopper himself, Oklahoma City's defensive projection improves to 14th in the league. With weaker offensive big men taking the minutes played by Kanter (plus-1.4 projected offensive RPM), the Thunder don't improve as much offensively from the swap as you might think, adding just a tenth of a point per 100 possessions to their fourth-ranked offensive projection.

The combination gives Oklahoma City the projected point differential of a team that would win between 50 and 51 games on average, an improvement of about one win over the Thunder's projection before the trade.(Note that neither of these projections factor in schedule, which probably will cost Oklahoma City about half a win in terms of point differential because the Western Conference is more competitive than the East.)

While that might not seem like much, recall that the recent debate over Anthony's finish in ESPN's #NBArank highlighted the fact that he's no longer as productive as he once was. Though it's certainly possible Anthony will be more effective in a smaller role with the Thunder, that's not the kind of adjustment RPM projections are capable of making.

(It's worth noting that my SCHOENE projection system does adjust players' efficiency based on changes in their usage rates, and SCHOENE actually projects Oklahoma City slightly worse, with a point differential that would typically translate in 49 to 50 wins.)

Where should Carmelo Anthony and OKC rank in the West?

Projecting the top of the West standings

All right, let's return to the West to see how the Thunder now compare to the rest of the challengers to the defending champion Golden State Warriors.

Best In The West RPM Projections

TEAM | NET RATING | WINS

1. Golden State | 9.3 | 62.2
   
   
2. Houston | 5.9 | 55.2
   
   
3. San Antonio | 4.4 | 52.0
   
   
4. Oklahoma City | 3.9 | 50.5
   
   
5. Minnesota | 3.7 | 49.9
   

The slight improvement from the Anthony trade is enough to push Oklahoma City ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves for the fourth-best projection in the West. The Thunder are within striking distance of the San Antonio Spurs, whose projected net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating) is just 0.5 points per 100 possessions better. But RPM still forecasts the Houston Rockets as the greatest threat to the Warriors, at least during the regular season, far ahead of any other West team save Golden State. Of course, RPM projections are only a starting point. Besides the fact that injuries, midseason moves and unexpected performance will alter teams' outlooks, RPM is an imperfect estimate of player value that doesn't take on-court chemistry into account. So it's certainly possible that the Thunder could emerge as the West's second-best team. At least for the regular season, however, RPM suggests that adding Anthony might not be enough to bring Oklahoma City level with Houston."

 

Make a thread Bro, this is fantastic stuff and accurate to where the league really stands, and how Daryl Morey really thinks.

 

Disappointing stuff from Stephen A and Max K. They are simply dead wrong and this season will quickly prove it. GSW and HOU are head and shoulders above SAS, OKC and MIN.

They are vastly overrating the overrated Spurs and the doodoo chemistry that will plague OKC, as well as the terrible Thibs offense out in MIN.

 

Do u have the link for that? I could only find their BPI for Sept 19

 

alright

 

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...trengthen-summer-blockbuster-acquisitions-nba

Rockets still 2nd in Vegas odds in WC.

 

Colin Cowherd >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Screamin A + Max Kell + Skip Brainless

 

Cowturd sounds like such a nerd but I have been agreeing with him an awful lot the past year or so

 

Colin is always there to be the contrarian so I'm always skeptical of his opinions even if I agree with them.

 

In a list compiled by Sporting News of players who took at least 65 shots in last minute
of games with a difference of 3 or fewer points shots Paul George ranked dead last
in eFG with 18.9%(total of 23 players), Westbrook ranked 21(tied exactly with overated Kobe) and Carmelo was right in front of him. Got to like your chances if you keep it close although with three guys you got to think at least one will do better. Your boy CP ranked 3rd in reg FG but 1 for 8 3pt dropped him down to 8th. These were totaled over last 5 seasons. All the players were well known major or minor stars. I am dubious about OKC
for this and other issues(coaching,bench) but melo and PG need to prove something this yr. so who knows.

 

You are a habitually skeptical mu fukka

 

I think I am a Skeptical Optimist leaning more toward habitually Optimistic. Not a mu fukka though.

 

Yo dawg, we all mu fukkas one way or another

 

Too much to ask Stephen to rest his hole......