Of course the season's not over. As much as it hurts to watch tonight's loss, we can retake the AL West lead tomorrow Keuchel >>> Perez
The team is competing for a playoff spot after years of mediocrity, and some people are b****ing like championships happen overnight. Doesn't work like that, son. At least now you can tell who are the bandwagoners and who are the real fans. I've gone to 4 games already the past month and a half and will go to two more. Those that are gonna boo shouldn't show even show up to the game at all. It's pathetic especially considering that the team has lost by two runs in the first game of the series and one run last night. It's not like they're getting blown out. I think this team is gonna go through growing pains before it can take that next big step. However, the season isn't over. If worst comes to worst, they can still compete for a wildcard spot, which last time I checked it still counts as the post-season. Be thankful that they're playing meaningful games this late in the season after being the doormat of baseball for the past few years or gtfo.
Thanks for starting this thread. It is nice to read through some rational thoughts and not have to filter every other post or in some cases 5-6 posts in a row. I obviously don't post much, but I do lurk on here to get my Astros fix. I've been living overseas for a few years, so it's hard to catch many games, but this year has been a lot of fun and I try to watch whenever there's a day game back in the US. The season is far from over, but it's been a frustrating few weeks. It seems like if we had a little bit better luck in some of these one run games we would have salted this thing away already. We have suffered a lot of injuries at an inopportune time. Also, I think Springer was really missed and we'd still have a 3-4 game cushion had he been in the line-up all summer. My biggest problem during this rough patch has been Hinch's refusal to use some of the younger bullpen arms. Harris has been great all year and I understand dancing with who brung ya, but he seems to have hit a wall while we have capable young guys with live arms not being used. I hope we regain and hold onto the division lead. That said, a back door entry via the second wildcard wouldn't be so bad. I like our chances in 1 game against the Yankees and would prefer to get the Royals over the Blue Jays. Maybe losing the division would actually set us up for a better playoff run...
I've largely been avoiding the forum for the last few days. The tough losses are frustrating enough. I don't need to compound that by coming on here and seeing constant negative posts from guys who never posted anything on here until a few weeks ago. And the posts aren't discussion posts, they are "this guy/team sucks" posts, which add nothing. Of course the season isn't over. We're 1/2 game back with 3 weeks left, not to mention we still have 5 left with Texas. This team is capable of getting hot and going on a good stretch. We could also melt down entirely, but nothing is assured either way. Those of us reasonable types realize this without being told, and the complainers love to complain, so a thread like this isn't gonna stop them. We were all expecting poor posters to come along with success, but it's frustrating nonetheless, this used to be a place for good baseball discussion.
anyone that thinks it's over hasn't been watching astros baseball this year. Twins lost so have to keep an eye on that too.
Love the thread idea; thanks, Nick. This team is who we thought they were...a young, inexperienced team with obvious holes. That doesn't mean "--- sucks", or "Hinch can't manage", etc. They have played above their heads all season and while it would really suck to lose it now at the end, I'm very proud of this team, the coaching, and upper management. Lots to be excited about. They've got to get over the hump with this Rangers club. The young kids gotta take their lumps in the beginning...that's how they'll improve, keeping in mind that many of the players for the Rangers are playoff (and World Series) tested. We are not. But now it's time to start returning the favor and laying it on them. We've played them pretty tight in most games...just gotta get over the hump. I have Keuchel going deep in the game tonight. Time to tighten his grip around that award they give to pitchers at the end of the season (won't jinx it by naming it).
The funny thing is... if you look at traditional metrics like pythagorean record, run differential, staff ERA, and defensive metrics... this team is actually UNDER-achieving (not playing over their heads). Things like youth, inexperience, "getting tight", morale, injury prone-ness, "luck"... unmeasurable/unquantifiable aspects that simply cannot be accounted for until you play the games seem to be out-weighing what is "supposed" to be happening right now. (which certainly adds to the frustration). This front office is still gaining much needed experience/life lessons in how to win consistently at the major league level. We all know that Luhnow can rebuild a minor league system. He's done it before, he did it here, he'll continue to excel at it. This was his first trade deadline where he was a GM of a buyer. This is the first September where he's the GM during a pennant race. I don't expect him to get it right the first time around (and the plan is, this is not the last time they're going to have this chance). Hell, we've already seen him adjust some of his previous "mantras" as he's gotten more adept at seeing what works on paper and what works in reality.
How old are you? You'd pay money to go to a game to boo your home team who is in a pennant race for the first time in a decade? Seriously? WTF?
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If you were told at the beginning of the year that we would be a half game out of first with 17 games to play there isn't anyone who wouldn't take that (especially given how they played the past four yrs). This is a young team who's learning how to win (especially in Sept during a playoff race). They've been in these games, and I've been impressed that there's NO quit in these guys. Really missing Gomez as his bat has been heating up as of late. Hopefully Keuchel can pitch a gem tonight, and we can get him some runs.
I don't think enough fans appreciate the many advantages of being the chased as opposed to the chaser. The Rangers have been on a tremendous tear, finally clawed their way to first place and... they could lose it and be back in second place in just a few hours. Even if the Rangers sweep, the lead is still easily surmountable if they don't maintain this relentless streak. That emotional roller coaster is really tough - and it's one of the reasons I admire the '04 and '05 Astro teams. It's not easy. That high degree of difficulty is why I've held firm that I think the Astros will eventually prevail. Watching these two games - which have been phenomenally exciting, btw - the Rangers are not a better team; I just think they've been lucky, which you need. They've been terrible in the field but it hasn't bitten them yet (Odor's scoop at 2B Monday night was a game-saver). And then there've been little things - like Rasmus' shot Monday night hitting Moreland. If that gets by him, two runs score; instead, just one does. Hopefully, those things even out these next five games.
If you remove the blow-outs (10+ run differentials, which greatly favor the Astros - they've blown out a lot of teams; the Rangers have been blown-out a lot), these teams are much closer in terms of "normal" games (which I think is a failing of pythagorean, frankly). As much as the advanced metrics have provided a much greater understanding of the game... at the end of the day, I think this is going to come down to whoever is playing best last. Right now, it's clearly Arlington. That could change literally starting tonight.
Of course, blowouts do get built into the formula and skew things over smaller sample sizes... but in the end, its not entirely responsible for 162 game season run differentials. The Astros have underachieved compared to their expected record... you also don't get to be a bipolar home/road team without feeling the consequences.
underachieving The Astros as a team are underachieving by virtually every progressive measure. That is what is frustrating. The run differential, defense and pitching all are exceptional. The Astros are 6-7 games under .500 in 1 run games and that only adds to the frustration. Now the Astros have had comeback wins this season and until around the all star break the Astros were doing quite well in 1 run games. That trend has shifted. Part of that is the pen, part of that is luck and part of that is poor offensive execution. Regardless it has gotten to the point where fans almost assume a 1 run loss. coaching Hinch does not appear to have a good aptitude when it comes to strategic decisions and handling line ups and his pen. The pen has been very good for a majority of the year and it has been easy for Hinch to go to his pen. I didn't like him not keeping a hot hand in the game out of the pen, switching guys out often. However it worked. It has not worked so well lately and the handling of the pen has not been optimal. The regular pen guys have struggled. Michael Feliz and VV should be pitching more out of the pen. lineup Just too much high strikeout garbage in the lineup with Valbuena, Gattis, Carter for a majority of the season. Holes all over the line up. The Astros went and got Gomez and he is an upgrade when he is in the line up. However there is no excuse for not getting a 1st baseman at the deadline. Ideally the Astros would have enough offense to play Marisnick in center. His defense is about as good as anyone in the game, and he is a spark stealing bases. future The Astros are still favorites IMO. They have a far better run differential, a better defense and a better rotation. It is really hard to figure what this team will do in the playoffs.
Blowouts ARE part of the game though. That is like me saying, well if we take the 2-3 blowouts McHugh had this year, his era is about 3.
A team winning/losing by 10+ runs is a random, ultimately meaningless anomaly (this isn't the BCS; a win is a win). If a team has a disproportionate # of blowouts in either direction - which is also random - it actually moves the needle quite a bit. I broke it down earlier (so the numbers are not 100% current): the Astros' pythagorean, minus their blow outs, drops by 9 full games (86-win pace). The Rangers (who, keep in mind, have a 16-run loss, among a slew of other blow-outs) improve by 6 wins (82). Yes, the Astros are still better - but +4 tells a much different story than +18, which is ultimately achieved by virtue of 10 games (the Astros six blowout wins + the Rangers' net-four blow-out losses).
They're random anomalies, though - significant of nothing other than one team being much better than another one on particular day. They're not sustainable, nor are they exclusive to only good teams. A 1-0 win counts the same as a 10-0 win; but pythagorean rewards the 10-0 game.
