I don't think that's always true. I don't think Republicans would have all united around Jeb Bush. We'll never know, but if Republicans staunchly throughout history just blindly support whoever they would win a lot more elections. I think Trump closely aligns with the GOP base more than people want to admit, that's why they are crazy for him moreso than say Jeb Bush. Disagree. I think the 2018 midterms is pretty solid proof that the Democrats are fired up for this election. Now, that can change by the time election date rolls around. Again, we really have to stop with this "This is what Moderates want to hear and this is what Moderates want," as they do not all want the same thing. Instead, they should focus on what people in swing states wan to hear as that is more important Also, with the whole compromise thing, the GOP didn't run on compromise. They ran on the idea that they were going to win and they were going ram through judges without compromise, they were going to ram through policy without compromise, and they were going to build a wall whether the other side wanted it or not. Never any talk then that they needed to compromise with the left or moderates...yet these same 'moderates' that voted for Obama flip to Trump, not because he compromised, because they felt he was going to tackle issues important to them. What they need to do is tell these voters why a Wall isn't going to stop immigration and why M4A is going to help them right now and not later. If they just become republican lite than I'm not sure why anyone would vote for them over the republican...other than Trump being a terrible person but we dont know what effect that will have until voting day I guess.
This is exactly it. But I think people are being unfair to the Democratic nominees because they are going by what they are saying to the base The primary is all about getting the base behind you. I think a lot of these messages will change once someone wins and the ticket shapes up but it is always about messaging and branding, which the GOP is just better at right now. I don't know how they deal with the paranoia and the cult that Trump has built around himself..I don't think there is much to be done about that right now.
People are making this election way too complicated. In case we've forgotten, we've had an election since 2016 that can be used as a model. We had the highest midterm turnout in 2018 in 100 years, and 60 million people voted for Democratic house members. That compares to 45 million voting for the GOP in the red wave in 2010. These people didn't come out to vote because they all suddenly loved liberal ideology or because the Democrats were promoting some new agenda. They came out as a repudiation of Trump. In liberal areas, they voted for progressives. In red areas, Dems pulled off stunning upsets with Democratic moderates. Young people who never voted came out in droves. Suburban and women Republicans voted in large numbers for Democrats. Basically, the whole country united against one idea: Trump is terrible. The result was one of the biggest political waves in history. There is zero reason to change that formula. You win with turnout and flipping suburban districts. Any Dem candidate does the former because it's all about Trump. But only certain ones do the latter. The House was supposed to be gerrymandered so much that it was impossible for Dems to win it until 2022 after a new round of redistricting. They didn't just win it with turnout - they also won it by flipping tons of lifelong GOP voters. Those people aren't liberals and they don't want massive economic change. They just don't want Trump - Dems just need to not give them a reason to go back, and they will win the election in a landslide.
Well, I agree! The Democratic nominee SHOULD tackle Immigration, they need to as it is important to voters they will need to get in swing states. So they have to find a message that resonates with those voters AND doesn't piss off their base or make their base think they are being a sellout. As for the racist thing, see, I didn't say it was about race for a majority of voters, I said that Trump's guy, Miller, is very likely to be a racist and he is constructing the immigration policy and that for him it is about race. Now you can say I can't prove that because he's never come out and said "I'm trying to keep certain races of people out of America," but the guy points people to read The Camp of Saints which is perhaps one of the more racist books in history so...yeah...and Trump keeps this guy on whose history is very interesting when it comes to this subject. I don't think Miller's agenda is just upholding immigration laws.
No - they did it partly because they didn't trust Hillary on a personal level (sound familiar to today?). And the rest (the working class midwest that stunned Dems) was because he tacked hard to the middle or even left on trade. That's how you win people from the other side.
Self sabotage and people living in a bubble because of self selected media and social circles. It happens on the right as well. It will cost the Democrats the 2020 election. Reminds me of Democrats in 1972.
I got this opinion from the wiki about Obama-Trump voters... In summary, these people wanted change, Clinton didn't offer it and Trump did. He offered to drastically eliminate Immigration and he offered to replace ACA with something better and of course like Obama he promised to change Washington and "Drain the Swamp" as he called it. I really don't think Democrats win if they run someone whose whole thing is "I'm not Trump." I think any candidate needs to have strong policy reasons to drive out voters. Everyone always mentions the Brexit vote as "See, that's what happens when you go too far left!" is it really? Boris went pretty far right (in a country where Obama would be right wing at that) and promised massive change, leaving the EU is a massive deal and that's what got people excited to vote. Corbyn offered more of the same really, more dancing around Brexit, while Boris offered definites "This is what we will do. This is how we do it." People like that in general. Also, as I said, I don't know how Trump's likeability will play out in the polls. Comparing him to Clinton is not fair, he's more charismatic than her, that much is clear. I think running an entire election on hoping that people just dislike Trump enough that they won't vote for him is a mistake...because a lot of people may just hold their nose and vote for him anyways. Instead, use that as an asset, but still, build a strong platform that inspires hope and change for the future.
Lol NO. Biden is a moderate candidate, and his campaign has hinted multiple times that he will seek a women for VP, and likely a woman of color. Every dem plays identity politic game. They have to. If Biden or Bernie, pick other old white men for their VP because they are the most qualified, they will be smeared for being sexist and too white. I hate it, I agree it should be most qualified. That’s not how it works and it is NOT a progressive vs moderate thing, it’s a Democrat thing. You know how many times Bernie was asked (told) “ hey your an old white man how about you F off so we can have a more diverse candidate “ MANY times.
The Republicans played identity politics in 2016. The nomination of Pence was to appeal to bible thumpers that had concerns about the fact that Trump broke all their rules
Christian identiy politics lol. It’s nothing new, both sides have always done what’s makes the ticket look best, it’s playing politics. Dems want to be diverse, Republicans want to be Christian.
Focus on hope, and how the GOP has failed, talk about the ballooning deficit, how the Tax cuts for the Rich only have screwed over America. Have a plan that taxes the rich more - but lowers taxes for Middle income and poor people - show how it benefits the country. DD
It's funny to me that when certain posters want to look at elections to learn lessons from they totally ignore 2016 in that calculus If there was ever a candidate who could be beaten simply by "not being him", it's Trump, but history teaches us this is not enough. "Back to normal" is not a rallying cry for the swingstate voter. You have to give people something to vote for, not simply something to vote against. Granted, Trump is so odious that may work, but it's not something I'm willing to bet the house on. Further, even if it does work in 2020 it sets a very poor precedent for 2024 and beyond thus opening the door for the next conservative homewrecker. This is the problem with thinking Trump is just an aberration. There are more Republican disasters out there who would cause just as much damage to our country only with a little more class and tact. We need to focus on more than just getting rid of Trump. There's a long game to be played here as well.
Exactly. Plus, people knew Trump was a horrible person going into 2016. It's not like people thought he was a saint going against Clinton. He even insulted a gold star family while running for president upon saying numerous other dumb things and this is ignoring the history he had with corruption in 2016. Let's remember that at the time we had prominent Republicans speaking ill of his character and that did not matter to Trump voters, they make that very clear. Now, a lot has changed from 2016-20, it looks like Trump may has lost some people, but it's dangerous to rely on that. We really have no idea the effect Trump's likeability will have on election day. Democrats should assume that they will have to beat him on policies, let his bad character be a bonus to their campaign, not a feature.
The biggest problem for Dems is the economy is on fire. It may not be on fire for everyone, but its on fire for enough people that it will be hard to upset. People vote with their wallets. People will talk about unfairness, the 1%, and divergent wealth generation, but the thing is: just about everybody is doing better, even if they are not doing as well as "the rich". In 2016, a lot of people felt left behind by the economy. They may have had a job, but not gotten a raise in a while. The weren't "feeling" the good economy. That is way less of an issue in 2019 believe it or not. Most people are feeling the benefits of the economy right now. Even if there are pockets that are not, a critical mass of people benefiting from the economy has been reached and that's hard to beat with any candidate, especially a candidate that proposed to upend the whole system and risk everything.
Trump lost by 3 million votes to the least popular and most distrusted Democratic candidate in generations. He won by eeking out wins that even his own campaign didn't expect in places where his message on trade resonated - by stealing votes from the left. The lesson to be learned from that is not "blow the whole thing up" and go further left, especially when the economy is good and people are content with their lives. Against any normal Republican, this is an impossible to win election. The entire opportunity for Dems to win this election is the intense personal hatred for Trump and the conversion of traditional GOP voters to the Dems, which we saw in 2018. This is not an issues election, and the only way to lose is to try to make it one. 2018 shows us otherwise. It was a historic rallying cry.
The 2016 situation hasn't changed much. Those who felt disaffected then are no better now, and most of them are worse off. About 1 in 5 Americans are doing, technically, better. 1 in 100 are doing very, very well. That's not good.
