The Republican Party's White Strategy shows it hasn't learned from California. Effect on the next 40

Northside Storm · Jun 22, 2016

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/07/the-white-strategy/485612/

From 1994 to 1998, in other words, California Republicans rebelled against Latino immigration in many of the ways Ann Coulter now hopes America as a whole will. What has happened since is instructive.

When Wilson announced his presidential campaign, California was a Republican-leaning state. Between the end of World War II and the end of the Cold War, it had gone to the Republican presidential candidate nine out of 11 times and elected a Republican governor seven out of 11 times. Republicans controlled the governor’s mansion, the state assembly, and a majority of statewide elected offices. And while the state’s growing Latino population posed a challenge to GOP dominance, Latinos had shown themselves willing to vote Republican in substantial numbers. According to exit polls, Ronald Reagan won 44 percent of California Latinos in 1984. Republican Governor George Deukmejian won 46 percent in 1986. Pete Wilson himself won 47 percent in 1990. During the Reagan and George H. W. Bush years, according to a study by the political scientists Shaun Bowler, Stephen P. Nicholson, and Gary M. Segura, “Latinos in California had been drifting toward the GOP.”

But all of that changed after the GOP began targeting Latino immigrants. Feeling themselves under assault, California Latinos registered to vote in epic numbers. From 1994 to 2004, according to Latino America, by Segura and Matt A. Barreto, the voter-registration rate among California Latinos grew 69 percent—more than twice as fast as the state’s Latino population. Latino voters also swung sharply against the GOP. Republicans, who had lost the Latino vote by six points in the 1990 gubernatorial race, lost it by 46 points in 1994, then by 61 points in 1998. Before the passage of Proposition 187 in 1994, California Latinos were four points more likely to identify as Democrats than as Republicans. After Proposition 227 passed in 1998, the margin reached 51 points. The GOP’s anti-immigrant efforts appear to have alienated young white voters, too. (Throughout this essay, I will consider Latinos as a distinct racial group separate from whites, as a majority of Latinos now consider themselves, even though the census does not.)

Almost two decades later, the California Republican Party still has not recovered. Latinos—who now constitute almost 40 percent of California’s population and more than a quarter of its eligible voters—have voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1996 by at least 40 points. Democrats today control every statewide elected office, and make up close to two-thirds of the state Senate and assembly, along with almost three-quarters of California’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives.
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The Latino share of the U.S. population, by contrast, is rising fast. From 1990 to 2014, it almost doubled, from 9 percent to more than 17 percent. And while the rate of growth has slowed, the census still predicts that Latinos will reach almost 30 percent of the population by 2060.
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Perhaps the best evidence that America as a whole is experiencing a California-style flip away from nativist politics is the reaction to Trump’s candidacy itself. As in California in the 1990s, Republican nativism is sparking a surge in Latino voter registration. Since Trump entered the race last summer, the number of immigrants becoming American citizens in Texas has risen from 1,200 a month to 2,200 a month, and a higher percentage of the newly naturalized is registering to vote. The trend is similar nationwide.

And as in California in the 1990s, Latinos have unified across ancestral, generational, and class lines against the GOP standard-bearer. According to polling of registered voters by the firm Latino Decisions, Trump’s unfavorability rating is 88 percent among foreign-born Latinos, and 86 percent among Latinos born in the U.S. Among Latinos who earn less than $40,000 a year, it is 90 percent, and among those who earn more than $80,000 a year, it is 85 percent. Among Mexican Americans, Trump’s unfavorability rating is 90 percent. Among Cuban Americans, historically the most Republican Latino group, it is 82 percent.
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A few facts to keep in mind:

1) From 1996 onwards, the Democrats have won 4 out of 5 elections by popular vote--and the electoral map gets a lot uglier with 55 electoral votes in the bank, a key reason why Trump will struggle to create a viable electoral map.

2) America is projected to be majority-minority by 2043.

3) An election can have a generational effect--and go even beyond.

In 1964, unlike 2016, it was not a foregone conclusion that the vast majority of black voters would support the Democratic Party. Republicans Dwight Eisenhower and Richard Nixon received 39 percent and 32 percent of the black vote in the 1956 and 1960 presidential elections, compared to 6 percent for Goldwater in 1964. No Republican candidate since Goldwater has earned support from more than 15 percent of black voters.
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Curious for thoughts on what that means for the next 40 years in American politics.

Carl Herrera · Jun 22, 2016

Republican rhetoric has been driving voters from a number of minority groups away for quite a while now. And this isn't just limited to the group directly attacked by the rhetoric. See the chart below, for example:

People hear the GOP's attempt at dog-whistles and know what they mean. Donald Trump is just way more naked about his language than past Republican candidates. I wonder what his share of the Asian American vote will be.

Hell, it seems like Trump may even be losing the Mormon vote.

JayGoogle · Jun 22, 2016

It's because democrats trick minorities with free stuff...right?

LosPollosHermanos · Jun 22, 2016

Carl Herrera said: ↑

Republican rhetoric has been driving voters from a number of minority groups away for quite a while now. And this isn't just limited to the group directly attacked by the rhetoric. See the chart below, for example:

People hear the GOP's attempt at dog-whistles and know what they mean. Donald Trump is just way more naked about his language than past Republican candidates. I wonder what his share of the Asian American vote will be.

Hell, it seems like Trump may even be losing the Mormon vote.
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lol, the Mormon vote is one of the first things he lost. Even the small minority of Mormons that support him openly state that they wouldn't urge others to follow or blame the people that don't.

RocketsLegend · Jun 22, 2016

If you pander to minority groups not only will you lose my vote but also my respect.

Carl Herrera · Jun 22, 2016

RocketsLegend said: ↑

If you pander to minority groups not only will you lose my vote but also my respect.
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Only white people get to be pandered to!

Rocket River · Jun 22, 2016

RocketsLegend said: ↑

If you pander to minority groups not only will you lose my vote but also my respect.
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Carl Herrera said: ↑

Only white people get to be pandered to!
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DAMN RIGHT!! Cause MURIKKA!!! /sarcasm

Rocket River

JayGoogle · Jun 22, 2016

RocketsLegend said: ↑

If you pander to minority groups not only will you lose my vote but also my respect.
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A_3PO · Jun 22, 2016

Ah yes, Pete Wilson. What a legacy.

I said 8 years ago the Republican party would come to its (immigration) senses by 2016, at the latest. SMH.

mikus · Jun 23, 2016

What we need to do is Make America White again! And take it back to Leave it to Beaver times when there was no crime in America at all!!!!
http://www.chron.com/news/local/article/Make-America-White-Again-campaign-sign-angers-8318839.php

JuanValdez · Jun 23, 2016

Carl Herrera said: ↑

Only white people get to be pandered to!
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We've only got 30 years left to take advantage of all the pandering we can get before we're a minority too!

jcee15 · Jun 23, 2016

RocketsLegend said: ↑

If you pander to minority groups not only will you lose my vote but also my respect.
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You're damned right.

JayGoogle · Jun 23, 2016

jcee15 said: ↑

You're damned right.
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Yall finished or yall done?

pirc1 · Jun 23, 2016

Will GOP split in two if they lose this election?

R0ckets03 · Jun 23, 2016

RocketsLegend said: ↑

If you pander to minority groups not only will you lose my vote but also my respect.
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Are you even old enough to vote? And didn't you say you were part Persian?

JuanValdez · Jun 23, 2016

pirc1 said: ↑

Will GOP split in two if they lose this election?
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I think it's more of a possibility now than any other point in my lifetime. There are obviously elements of the party that want to play the long game, and apparently some that find advantage in playing the short game. Since their interests are now polar opposites, maybe they can't coexist any longer.

R0ckets03 said: ↑

Are you even old enough to vote? And didn't you say you were part Persian?
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He'll have no pandering to his Persian half!

justtxyank · Jun 23, 2016

I had a heated argument with someone today about Trump and he said one of the reasons he supports Trump is because it's ridiculous that it isn't ok to call a black person a n****r anymore. Said it doesn't make someone racist and the PC crap has got to stop.

A_3PO · Jun 23, 2016

pirc1 said: ↑

Will GOP split in two if they lose this election?
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This is more likely to happen if Trump wins.

fchowd0311 · Jul 19, 2016

RocketsLegend said: ↑

If you pander to minority groups not only will you lose my vote but also my respect.
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There are not many living entities on this planet that would feel a sense of loss if this were to happen to them.

krosfyah · Jul 20, 2016

RocketsLegend said: ↑

If you pander to minority groups not only will you lose my vote but also my respect.
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What do you see as the difference between "pandering" and "representing"?

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The Republican Party's White Strategy shows it hasn't learned from California. Effect on the next 40

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