Current AFC standings, as of Dec. 3: 1. Chiefs 10-2 2. Patriots 9-3 3. Texans 9-3 4. Steelers 7-4-1 5. Chargers 9-3 Remaining schedules: HOU: Colts, @Jets, @Eagles, Jags KC: Ravens, Chargers, @Seahwaks, Raiders NE: @Dolphins, @Steelers, Bills, Jets PIT: @Raiders, Patriots, @Saints, Bengals LAC: Bengals, @Chiefs, Ravens, @Broncos The Texans and Patriots appear to have the two easiest remaining schedules. They're likely to be favored in all four of their remaining games. I think we can all find... at least 3 wins for each team, right? 12-4? Assuming the Chargers beat the Bengals this week, Kansas City is likely to face a desperate Ravens team (still in the playoff hunt) and then the Chargers for an AFC West title showdown. They also have to travel to Seattle, a team very much in the playoff hunt. I mean, 2-2 might be best-case scenario - that's a tough final four (minus the Raiders, who they struggled to beat yesterday). If 2-2, they'd finish 12-4. The Chargers, after Kansas City, then have to play the possibly still-alive Ravens and Broncos to close out. That's a tough intra-division stretch to finish the season. Can you find three wins? I think it'll be tough. 11-5 sound right? And finally, the Steelers have two really tough match-ups (Patriots and Saints) between two likely easy wins. They may be 2-2, as well (9-6-1). Bottom line: if the Texans win out (13-3), they will almost certainly secure a bye. And they might jump all the way to #1 as there's no one on their schedule as good as the Steelers, IMO (who could be desperate v Patriots, especially if Baltimore upsets Kansas City this weekend).
Ravens & Bengals are our friends right now. Maybe even the Bengals. Assuming Texans win out Not sure Patriots would be favored over the Steelers since it’s in Pittsburgh
I worked up a scenario where the Patriots, Texans, Chiefs, and Chargers all ended up 12-4 and the seeds ended up Patriots as the first seed, Texans as the second seed, Chiefs as the 3rd seed, and Chargers as the 5th seed.
goal should be to have the chiefs and pats play each other. I would desire this outcome more than a bye.
Texans best chance was with ihe Vikings yesterday but the Kirk Cousins screwed that up. Sure the Patriots could lose one more but so could the Texans. Now we gotta hope for the Chiefs to lose.
If the Chiefs drop 1 to an AFC team and end up tied with us (assuming we win out), then we would win the tie breaker with a better conference record. If the Chiefs instead drop 1 but to an NFC opponent, they have the tie breaker over us. I haven’t looked at the scenarios with the Chargers.
Patriots will be the 1 seed in that scenario because they have best head to head record. If it is Chargers then the Texans are in based on division record. If it is Chiefs, it gets too complicated. I think it is still too early to try to figure things out. It is not crazy to think the Texans lose a couple more games.
The next three games will be tough for the Patriots. Bills have actually been playing well lately and have the best defense in football. Steelers could easily beat the Pats. The Dolphins typically play the Pats well at home as well.
Those same arguments could be made about the Texans opponents Aside from yesterday's clunker, Colts have been playing well. And they will be in must-win mode. Same with Philly especially if they win tonight. Jets defense is legit. Jags play Texans tough and they have renewed energy. Colts/Steelers, Dolphins/Eagles, Bills/Jags. The Patriots have as much a chance of losing any of their remaining games as the Texans do.
The Colts are not a good road team and don't have anywhere near the defense Houston has. It doesn't really bode well. Indy's big loss was losing Doyle. He allowed them to get in to 3 TE sets where he is an elite blocker from the TE position in the run game. It would force the Texans in to their base defense on passing plays(See Mckinney try and cover TE's and Marlon Mack). He also can run routes. It was no surprise that the first game he was out that they struggled running the ball as well as passing. That game will not be tough for the Texans. Circle the Eagles game as the big one as Wentz gets more healthy as the season progresses.
Pretty crazy that everyone (even many Texans fans) wrote us off after starting 0-3. Now, we could plausibly have the whole AFC come through NRG for the playoffs, if everything works out.
Not disagreeing but I could discount the Patriots opponents just the same. For instance, Patriots are probably the best 2nd half team; the Steelers could be the worst. Did you watch last night's game? Patriots are not a good matchup for Tomlin's crew. I don't see Josh Allen beating Tom Brady, not even with that Bills defense. It's the same defense that gave up 37 points to the Colts without Jack Doyle. Speaking of TY Hilton, is he hurt? If not, he'll be tough to handle. None of the Texans' CBs can keep up with him. He went for a buck fifteen last time around. Yes, without Jack Doyle. With all that being said, I'm turning my attention on Chiefs/Chargers. Hoping that division winner drops to the #3 seed.
The Chargers and Chiefs are going to be different teams since their loss of both pro-bowl running backs. Chargers are turning into a possible sieve on defense against the run, especially with the loss of Corey Liuget (something the Texans have improved on immensely as the season has progressed). Chiefs' defense has improved some, but the loss of Hunt will be a major blow to their offense. Ware is a good replacement but has nowhere near the explosiveness that Hunt brought to the trio of; him, Kelce, and Hill. They (somehow) just beat the lowly Raiders this weekend. Honestly, by the time we get there, I probably wouldn't have a problem playing either team.
Melvin Gordon will be back. Kareem Hunt won’t be back. I’m not worried about rbs because Texans normally shut the run game down.
True, but he's been extremely injury prone (especially towards the tail end of the season) these past couple of years. He could be that much more susceptible to injury once he returns. The pass defense could always use improvement for every team. It's hard to have a dominant secondary with the current rules against breathing on the receiver and/or QB the wrong way.
I'd rather the Texans not be on the same side of the AFC playoff bracket as the Patriots. Now, if that AND a bye happens, it's all groovy.
