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The Jazz are 3 point favorites for Game 3

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by samtaylor, Apr 18, 2019.

  1. mac_got_this

    mac_got_this Member

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    Where are you seeing this? I’m not seeing them ass 3 pt favorite in the betting sites?
     
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  2. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Yes, that's the story. Thanks for contributing.

    Rockets had zero problems in Utah last year, because "human nature" dictated that Rockets come out focused (they don't want to return for a Game 6, so could flip on a mental switch from a lesson learned), vs Utah was simply out-matched.

    There is always a "Human Nature" story for any of the single losses in a 1st Round 4-1 series.

    See that's the story, ignoring that Minnesota shot 57% from 3, making 15, which they only did once in the Regular ... a loss.

    It's always "human nature" -- like the 2-0 team got complacent. Further, what was deemed The Story in the Past can always repeat in the Future.

    Yes, I get it. I just don't regularly buy it. To me, "Human Nature" stories are a minor part, when it comes to whether an out-matched team can win one game or not, and which game.
     
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  3. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    That's good one! :D
     
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  4. Nook

    Nook Member

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    It isn't a "human nature" story in the sense you seem to want it to be.

    Is it a "human nature story" when D'Antoni repeatedly discusses the fact that the Rockets take their foot off the break when they have big leads? Is he wrong, that the effort and focus in reality is consistent?

    Why doesn't the best team in basketball go 82-0?

    It is hard to beat a good team three straight games in the playoffs. Teams do not shoot well every game. Adjustments are made. Turnovers can become a problem. A team may have more confidence at home for some reason. There are a lot of factors at play.

    To win a series 4-0, the winning team usually needs to be far superior to the losing team, or injuries are involved.
     
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  5. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    But the Rockets didn't beat them by an average of 26 points in the first two games. In fact, they lost in Game 2. Maybe Vegas is betting on a psychological let down of the Rockets after two easy blowouts.

    I do wonder how many people will bet on that spread. People often forget that these Vegas lines aren't exactly the predicted probabilities of the final results. It's how they see people will bet.
     
  6. bilaal14

    bilaal14 Member

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    [​IMG]

    Dude they suck. Its over.
     
  7. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I hope you are right.
     
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  8. cdxiong

    cdxiong Contributing Member

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    Statistically speaking, home team usually wins game 3 especially after losing first 2 in a 7 game series.
     
  9. Madano

    Madano Contributing Member

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    For those saying Scott Foster, isn't he notoriously bad for the home team normally? I think they'd wait to whip him out until the game is in Houston.
     
  10. Lurch

    Lurch Live Wilder.

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    I don't get the whole thing about the NBA and Silver sending in Foster or ref reinforcements. How on earth does the NBA benefit from Utah winning or a potential Utah GS matchup?

    There is absolutely no reason for the NBA to want to extend this series. The sooner the NBA can get Rockets Warriors part 2 the better.
     
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  11. icewill36

    icewill36 Member

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    Well, they won’t miss as many open shots at home and will be playing for their season. This will be the toughest game of the series for sure.
     
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  12. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    3 point favorite for the 1st quarter maybe, but oh well, this series is already over...it was over before it even started
     
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  13. MystikArkitect

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    Honestly I’d feel way more comfortable with these lines if they didn’t announce them until the officiating crew is also announced.

    If you set a line, see action, then you can choose which crew to send to control the outcome based on the line. If the crews came out the same time as the line, I wouldn’t find it screwy.

    This line is screwy. Utah -1 is about as big as a normal line would be favoring Utah.

    -3 screams bet on the Rockets.
     
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  14. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Thank you for making my point. Now we are talking about systemic reasons, ability to make adjustments and freak performances (like Minny's 57% shooting last year, or star Rookie last yr surprising us and exposing a weakness requiring a Patch, stuff like what causes March Madness upsets), combined with HCA.


    I'm talking a matter of degree. You clearly think flipping a mental switch can control the outcome more than me...that's all. I think the mental switch stories are very minor points in 1st Round series involving routes and likely 4 to 5 games series.

    I find it interesting the popularity to guess which game will be the loss with which human nature story.

    Bottomline: I'm saying if betting odds remain with Rockets as underdog, then people are betting with their Gut more than their Minds....It's a dangerous way to bet, considering skills of HOU/UTA, Xs/Os facts to date in this playoffs and Utah's success at home last year.​

    I think you mean "foot off the gas" :p

    And my point is whether you think (after watching Game 1 and 2) whether it will resurface in Game 3.

    I think we flipped the switch when the Playoffs began, because MDA so thoroughly beat it into their heads that we have this Regular Season problem v last year. And when it occurs in a game now, MDA can fix it with a timeout or substitution and mediate the out-matched team's moment of Unsustainable, Over-Exertion to become a threat.

    We are discussing the Playoffs and an out-matched series.

    I agree. And that fans/media love to predict the one loss, based on old stories and human factors. Giving it more weight than all the other factors.

    Basically, it's easier to wrap a story from the past around a Bet, versus Xs and Os basketball reasons or extraordinary performance reasons (Minny last year) like we rely more upon with one-and-done scenarios of NFL and March Madness.
     
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  15. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    You mean people bet with their Gut more than their Minds...That's gambling...it's a dangerous way to bet, considering skills of HOU/UTA, Xs/Os facts to date in this playoffs and Utah's success at home last year.

    I really don't know how it works. It makes sense that they would be in the business of predicting the number of where the 50/50 For-and-Against line is with bettors, which theoretically maximizes action on both sides. But, then that takes them in the realm of guessing/gambling themselves.

    I bet (pun intended) there are odds-makers who try to remain 100% objective to the facts of the game and not consider how fans think (the Stories). The line will move to protect the House from the odds-makers initial Bet, no?
     
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  16. bongman

    bongman Member

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    Any team can win ONE game on a best of 7 series. We maybe overthinking it.
     
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  17. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Contributing Member

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    The NBA doesn't want the Jazz winning this series, but they sure wouldn't mind a few extra games for the added revenue.
     
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  18. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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  19. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    edit
     
    #39 heypartner, Apr 18, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2019
  20. Rockets007

    Rockets007 Contributing Member

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    Nice!!
     

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