It's true, many of the homegrown pitchers we've called up since McCullers have been up and down. Even Forrest Whitley (and Corbin Martin) both suffered setbacks this year.
It’s very hard for contending teams to develop homegrown starting pitchers. Generally good teams have established starters so they don’t have openings or patience to stick with young pitchers long enough to get them established. Also, mlb ready starting pitching prospects are highly valued by other teams at the trade deadline. Finally, Houston has had some bad luck with injuries. All that said, Houston has a very large group of starting pitching prospects in the upper minors that all have solid chances to eventually be established major league starting pitchers: James Whitley Martin Valdez Perez Urquidy Martes Armenteros Bielak Bukauskas Abreu Javier Bailey Ivey Paredes I would wager that group will eventually combine for at least 400 career major league starts.
Tom Eshelmen Franklin Perez Joe Musgrove Mike Foltynewicz Dan Mengden Patrick Sandoval Trent Thornton Vince Valezquez Are all starters that have been traded the past few years. They have all been in the majors except for Perez. They have had mixed results. Folty was very good last year but bad this year. The Astros were unable to continue the development of all these drafted or signed players due to the need to trade.
Sorry, should have clarified, my post was referring to homegrown pitchers who stayed with us. In part, many guys just never had the chance. Musgrove, for example, was blocked in our rotation. Still a great group of players we drafted and developed.
I'd be up for that as well. I can see why you'd say that about Marisnick but what has Devo shown you in the last year or so that makes you think he's worth $2M? He's been bad all year - even his advanced stats show that. He hasn't even had a month stretch where I've gone "maybe he can turn it around". Honestly, I would cut him before paying him $2M.
This is true but how do we know they would have developed the same way had they stayed here? I'm starting to think we have a flaw in our minor league pitching development - maybe it's us trying to push them too much towards analytics early or whatever the case may be but it can't be just luck that we haven't developed any pitchers and meanwhile we continue to have a high success rate on hitters. Edit: Anyone who is watching tonight's game want to change their vote? Another AAA starter comes up and fails again then we got to see Josh James do his usual thing where he can't throw strikes. Before the "IT'S ONLY ONE START" posts start flowing in, I'm not insinuating Urquidy won't be a successful player. It just seems like this has been the norm for us the past couple of years when it comes to pitchers that we've promoted other than James who looked like the real deal last year.
We have no idea what would have happened, but those pitchers were developed enough to be important trade chips, And it is only one start and was only 3 2/3 innings. If you can say he ‘failed’ in his first 4 innings in the worst pitcher’s park in the league, then you have expectations that are way too high.
You’re right we don’t know what would have happened but IMO they shouldn’t be considered as MLB pitchers who we successfully developed - I’m talking about pitchers who we’ve drafted, developed their entire minors career and turned into successful, above average MLB pitchers on our team. Since new ownership and the change in philosophy, I don’t think we’ve developed anyone other than LMJ who is hurt 75% of the time...correct me if I’m wrong here though. We haven’t even developed an above average reliever. While James has shown promise as I said above, who knows what he’ll become after what we’ve seen this season so far. And did you not read the part where I said the one start didn’t mean anything? Or are you trying to argue his start tonight wasn’t bad? Not sure where you’re going with that...my point is it seems like we’ve recycled through hundreds (I’m exaggerating, feel like I have to start stating the obvious otherwise someone will reply with the actual number) of our minor league pitchers the past two years and none of them have shown staying power other than James.
The point is that when you take away a number of their better pitching prospects (especially those that are close to being ML ready), of course they are gong to have less prospects to develop.
Is hasn’t been that many - not enough to explain why we haven’t 100% hit on someone yet anyway. I agree it’s part of the reason but there’s got to be a flaw in our pitching development process IMO or we are just extremely unlucky. Who knows maybe several of these guys will break through soon, after all they are still young for the most part, and I will be laughing at this post one day. But it’s clear our process and data analytics team at the MLB level when it comes to pitchers is the best in baseball IMO - it’s not a fluke guys we’ve signed or traded for have had their best years with us...and that’s why I’m of the mindset it’s not a fluke we haven’t had any real successes at the MLB level on our team with guys we’ve drafted and developed.
Recap of their system: -They are above average in boosting veterans performance using analytics -They have a defined process in place for the both the acquisition of amateur talent as well as their development. -The amateur development is effective but hasn't borne out significant ML success. I think there are definitely drawbacks to the way they develop their amateur talent. -They focus heavily on quality and sequencing of pitches, with little regard for getting deep into a game. There hasn't been a guy through the system that I was confident could throw 6+ IP consistently much less hit 7 or 8IP that I can remember. -Basically they're taught to throw their best stuff all the time. Conceptually it makes sense, but what ends up happening is they don't have a different look to give the hitter. And if their best stuff isn't working, they're screwed. Verlander is a freak because he can reach back for another gear. I feel like our young guys keep attacking with the same stuff and hoping it works (e.g. 24 curveballs in a row). -(pure speculation), throwing consistently as hard as they're trained to do I believe leads to more injuries. It's a good development system but I think the minor league side is a lot more flash than substance.
I’ve been thinking about it and I say all things being equal, and if the Astros have the inside track, break the bank for Cole. 5 star caliber pitchers are extremely rare in MLB. You have to make every effort available to sign him. Correa and Springer you try and sign long term, but keep the option of giving a qualifying offers to in hopes of getting a draft pick, if it’s still available, and rules haven’t changed. Cole is an absolute stud pitcher which you cannot let walk without making every effort to keep. Without a doubt, this is the year to push for a title, because the roster is about to get real expensive and probably less talented with veterans. Tucker can step into the outfield and provide the necessary pop in the bat, to alíviate the departure of Springer, if he does go for greener pastures. Correa, leaving would mean moving Bergman back to short stop, and filling in the 3 base with the farm system. I’m thinking Cole might be in for a 7 year 240-275 million type of deal. If that’s the case would y’all still sign him?
I personally think giving Gerrit Cole $200M+ would be an epic disaster for Houston. I also think there’s no way Houston could afford to do that even if they wanted to. I think Houston has $10-15M in available payroll for next season as it currently stands. Reddick is the only player making a significant salary who makes any sense as a salary dump, so they could realistically get that up to $25-30M without significantly downgrading the roster. But they will have pretty glaring holes at catcher and in the bullpen, where they have 4 pending free agents, along with the rotation. From 2021 on they will have a bit more room as Gurriel, Reddick, Springer, and Brantley come off the books, but they currently do not project to have an adequate replacement for Springer ready in time, and they also need to prepare in some way to replace Correa. Giving a SP $30M+ for 7 years simply isn’t in the cards for the Astros. Houston needs to acquire a SP this month who is under control thru at least next season. Aside from that, in order for their competitive window to extend past 2021 and Correa’s free agency, this is what needs to happen: Develop at least 1 ToR SP internally by mid season 2020. Have Tucker and one other prospect (Beer, Lee, Nova, etc.) join Alvarez and Bregman to form a new core of star players. Checking those 2 boxes should help them remain as contenders thru at least 2024.
I agree about trading for a SP that has a few years of control. That should be a huge priority. As for roster moves for 2020, I think everything will depend on what happens this post season. If they win the World Series, Crane may pony up the money for Cole. I don't expect Cole to be here but who knows. Moving Reddick might be what they end up doing in the off season. I just hope if he is moved, Tucker is ready. I don't feel like they will move Yuli just yet. If Alvarez can learn first base, ideally you would move him there.
I don’t think he gets anywhere near that kind of money. JV just got $30mil/year on a short contract so I don’t see Cole getting that same amount on a longer deal. If he gets 7 years I don’t think there’s anyway it’s over $210 million. And I wouldn’t do that. You could talk me into 5 years at ~$140 million though.
To put a potential Cole deal in perspective, Patrick Corbin got a 6/$140 mil deal this past offseason. Corbin was coming off a really good season and was entering his age 29 season. Cole will also be coming off a great season, but has a bit more proven track record than Corbin. He will also be entering his age 29 season when he is a FA. So I think these two players are a good comparison. If you look at Spotrac, it says that Cole’s market value is $23 million/year. That’s a little higher than the $20.8 million/year valuation they placed on Corbin. Now, Corbin is making more than that on his current deal. If you take the percent increase of Corbin’s actual deal compared to his projected value and apply the same math to Cole, you end up with a yearly salary of $25.8 million. If he ends up with a 5 year deal then I think it’ll be right around $130 million and if it’s a 6 year deal it should be right around $155 million. If we had the chance to sign him to a 5 year/$130 million deal I think I’d do it.
I think they intend on keeping Alvarez at DH/LF, and plan to groom Beer for 1B instead. Via Twitter (or an interview?) I heard that Luhnow went to a RR game where Alvarez started at first, watched him intensively, and didn't like what he saw. Chamdler Rome said on Twitter (in response to somebody's question about the future at 1B) that Beer is getting all his starts at 1B (outside the occasional DH day), so it looks like that's his future home. Has only played the OF once or twice in CC (and I think it was only out of necessity). I'd trade Yuli and his $8.4 M salary to clear space. Give Diaz some time at first, and platoon him with Moreland or Smoak on a cheap 1 yr deal. Try and keep Cole if we can.
