Field goal percentage IMO is misleading. For example, if you look at Kevin Martin’s FG%, he seems inefficient in scoring. His fouls drawn make up for the missed shots. I came up with a very basic formula to calculate points per position. Yes there are many holes to the formula but I’m not a Google badass so I couldn’t find some stats of what I needed. Please feel free to correct it and add input. Maybe we can all come up with something that really makes sense. How cool would it be to have our very own effective clutch fans formula!! Here is my explanation of the formula. Points/position possession = Total points scored/(shots +TO – steals – charges – Blocks*(% of blocks leading to turnovers)-offensive rebounds). I’m neglecting defensive rebounds (not a true possession added since this should be achieved by default). Also, there is no way of factoring in good defense. (shots that were changed or misses because of defensive pressure). But I think that at least the trend between players will be the same since typically the more blocked shots the better the defense is for that player. I’m also neglecting charges just because of the fact that I couldn’t find any 2009-2010 data for these stats. But if anyone can find it, it will make the equation much better. For blocked shots, I had no stat for blocked shots leading to an opponent turn over. I estimated that a blocked shot will lead to a turnover 1/3 of the time. I did this since many blocked shots lead to an out of bounds. But if this is a baseless assumption please put your input. Also, if a rockets player gets his shot blocked and this leads to a turnover, is this included in the TO stat? So basically shots and turnovers are possessions used and steals, charges, offensive rebounds, and blocked shots leading to an opponent’s turnover are possessions gained to the rockets. The following is what I got for points per position. Player Pts/Poss. Jared Jeffries 3.34 Chuck Hayes 1.95 Kyle Lowry 1.84 Shane Battier 1.49 Chase Budinger 1.36 Luis Scola 1.31 Kevin Martin 1.22 David Andersen 1.22 Trevor Ariza 1.17 Aaron Brooks 1.12 As the season goes on, I'm sure that the new players' stats will change significantly. If you guys like me to, I could update this as the season goes on.
See ORTG: Points Produced per Possessions Used Formula described in painstaking detail in Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper. Another resource for Oliver's methods, if you are interested, can be found here. Rockets: http://www.basketball-reference.com...al=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=off_rtg League: http://www.basketball-reference.com...al=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=off_rtg
First flaw I see there is that JJ is almost double the PpP than anyone else that alone should be an indicator something is wrong!
I think that is points per possession used for the entire team. That doesn't say much. It is heavily dominated by how many shots a player takes. It is completely misleading in regards to player efficiency.
Well, he has only played 4 games (small sample). Don't just say its a flaw by the results. Use some critical thinking and tell me why by the equation...
It is somewhat complicated, and I don't have the book that explains it all with me. Here is a high level summary: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_rating
For players, the formula is: Offensive Rating = (Points Produced / Individual Possessions) x 100 Points can be produced through field goals, free throws, assists, and offensive rebounds. Individual possessions are the sum of a player's scoring possessions (field goals, free throws, plus partial credit for assists), missed field goals and free throws that the defense rebounds, and turnovers. Thats interesting. They gave the player points produced with offensive rebounds. I gave the player a possession earned. But I failed to include assists since there is no real way of knowing how many points to include. Maybe a trend between team assists per game and team points per game will give a correlation between the two and a value can be deduced by that?? But I have to disagree on how they used Offensive rebounds and them not including blocked shots.
Regarding your formula, I have a few comments: "Efficiency" at the team level is straightforward to express -- points scored per team possessions. At the individual level, a player can contribute to points scored in ways other than just putting the ball in the basket. And what does a "player possession" mean? Suppose we have 5 players on the floor that collectively participate in 100 offensive possessions. It stands to reason that a "player possession" should be defined in such a way that the sum of each of the 5 player's possessions add up to 100. I don't think that happens with your formula. Also, stats for charges can be found at hoopdata.com.
Actually my formula would add up to total ADDED possessions are equal to the sum of other ADDED positions. If I included defensive rebounds then the TOTAL=THE SUME. The offensive rating the you linked to me does not. Just by the fact that the offensive rebounds are not included in total possession and added points. How else can you get a possesion other than OR, blocks, Steals, Charges or lose by TO?
When you say "add possessions", what does that really mean? A charge or blocked shot or steal can contribute to a defensive stop. Just as a missed shot and defensive rebound contributes to a defensive stop. Possessions aren't really "added"; they simply end and switch to the other team. Now, there is some offensive value in getting a stop, but it is more of a secondary effect (e.g. getting a steal will give your team a better transition opportunity). Offensive rebounds have value because they create additional scoring opportunities by extending the possession. Taking a closer look at your formula, what would happen if a player scored 10 points on 5 shots, and he had 6 steals? It would come to: 10 / (5-6) = -10. Not sure how to interpret that as an efficiency stat.
By that missed shot the rockets would have received a possession by giving away a possession, regardless if the other team made it or not. By them not giving them a shot, that is an extra possession that the rockets received by taking it away from the other team. I like the way you think. I also had that in mind when I made this thread. IMO that means that his points came from his added position and not the team position. This would mean that he made 10 pts and added an extra possession to the team that otherwise would never of gotten if he didn't make those 6 steals. Where is that player, I'm sure morey would love to sign him!!
For sure charges a rockets player has taken and a correlation for assists can be added. Even maybe fouls that a rocket player has committed can be some how added to a possession? HTown57 had some interesting statistics. It could be somewhere around like line of (average pts per possession w/foul)-average pts per position w/o foul)*(average number of fouls a player makes per game). And this could be subtracted from the players average points per game.
I don't really follow that. The Rockets are going to get the ball back in any case. Where is an extra possession being generated? It sounds like you're saying a defensive stop should be treated as effectively an extra possession. Maybe what you are looking for is an efficiency stat that takes into account both offensive efficiency (points produced given the portion of the team possessions used) and defensive efficiency (points allowed given the portion of defensive team possessions responsible for). For something like that, maybe ORTG - DRTG is what you're after. For the Rockets, I get the following: Player MP ORtg DRtg NetEff Carl Landry 1415 120 107 +13 Kyle Lowry 1186 114 107 +7 Shane Battier 1889 113 107 +6 Pops Mensah-Bonsu 13 98 95 +3 Luis Scola 1724 107 105 +2 Chuck Hayes 1209 103 103 0 Chase Budinger 982 107 108 -1 Jared Jeffries 59 105 106 -1 Joey Dorsey 54 101 102 -1 Aaron Brooks 2048 107 111 -4 David Andersen 815 103 107 -4 Kevin Martin 145 103 108 -5 Tracy McGrady 46 102 109 -7 Trevor Ariza 1997 97 106 -9 Jermaine Taylor 105 97 111 -14 Garrett Temple 82 80 106 -26 Hilton Armstrong 7 75 110 -35 Brian Cook 44 72 107 -35 Mike Harris 12 64 107 -43 Will Conroy 20 49 112 -63 Jordan Hill 2 0 115 -115
My point exactly. Those freethrowns and three's are included in the points. Even if a player misses but gets fouled and hits his free throws then he made 2 pts per that possession that he used (Field Goald Attempt). I'm defining position as a shot (Field goal attempt) or a turnover (that that individual player has made), simple as that. I am defining a possession added as a steal, block shot*(1/3), charge, or an offensive rebound.
Seems like a statistical way of being in denial about kmarts poor shooting. You can make any player look great if you mess around with variables/numbers enough.
No dude, its comman sense. If a player shoots 10 times and makes none of them but gets fouled every time, that is efficient. Especially if he's 80% shooting. Thats a total of 16 points in 10 shots. Thats exactly the same as making 8 of 10 two points shots. Both lead to 16 pts...
