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(Passan) Verlander: MLB juicing balls for more offense

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by SemisolidSnake, Jul 8, 2019.

  1. mikol13

    mikol13 Protector of the Realm
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    [​IMG]
    By Jayson Stark 7h ago[​IMG] [​IMG]
    CLEVELAND — Before he got the call to start the All-Star Game, Justin Verlander got another call — right into the principal’s office.

    Waiting for him in that office Monday afternoon wasn’t an actual principal, or even the actual commissioner, Rob Manfred. But when Manfred’s favorite lieutenants — Joe Torre, Jim Leyland and at least one other MLB official — decided it was time to stop by the clubhouse for a visit, it was safe to guess they weren’t bringing along scrapbooks to reminisce about the 2012 ALCS.

    “I may actually have facilitated that meeting,” Verlander’s Astros teammate, Gerrit Cole, admitted Tuesday night after the American League finished off the National League, 4-3, in the All-Star Game. “I saw Jim and Joe were in (manager Alex Cora’s) office. And they said hi. Then Jim, in not a profanity-laden way, said, ‘Get Justin in here right now.’ So I came out and said, ‘Hey, Skip wants to see you.’ And he said, ‘OK.’ Then he comes back and he goes, ‘Man, I just got chewed out.’”

    In case you’re not familiar with hallowed All-Star Game tradition, it isn’t every year the starting pitcher gets summoned to the manager’s office to get chewed out by the powers that be. No, to pull that off, it takes creativity.

    Or, in Verlander’s case, it took using the stage provided by the annual pre-All-Star press conference as the inspirational occasion to accuse Major League Baseball of buying Rawlings, the company that makes the baseballs, so it could intentionally juice the ball.

    “If any other $40 billion company bought out a $400 million company and the product changed dramatically,” Verlander told ESPN, “it’s not a guess as to what happened. We all know what happened. Manfred, the first time he came in, what’d he say? He said we want more offense. All of a sudden he comes in, the balls are juiced? It’s not coincidence. We’re not idiots.”
     
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  2. mikol13

    mikol13 Protector of the Realm
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    Here in the media biz, we love Verlander for his refreshing penchant for delivering blistering opinions with the same ferocity he’s been delivering 98-mile-an-hour smokeballs for the last 15 seasons. But over in the run-the-sport business so lovingly presided over by the commissioner, those blistering opinions apparently aren’t always quite so popular. Who knew!

    So Torre, Leyland and their friends delivered a slightly different take — which, from what we can gather, went something like, “We love you, Justin. You just don’t know what the hell you’re talking about.”

    Manfred wouldn’t comment on Verlander directly Tuesday afternoon during his annual visit to the July meeting of the Baseball Writers Association of America. But he might as well have been reading a text message to his favorite All-Star starter when he said, “Baseball has done nothing, given no direction, for an alteration of the baseball.”

    We’ll spare you all the details and rationalizations here. But we should at least mention Manfred seemed to find it mildly amusing that anyone — from Cy Young winners to talk-show hosts — would think it was his secret lifelong dream to rescue his sport by blowing up every home run record known to mankind.

    “There is no desire on our part to increase the number of home runs,” Manfred said. “On the contrary, we’re concerned about how many we have.”

    Is the ball different? It’s obviously different. To his credit, Manfred made no attempt to dispute that Tuesday. But how? Why? What does it all mean? The commissioner seemed genuinely confused himself — and promised his team of independent scientists was delving fervently into all those questions at this very moment. So there? Feel better and less conspiratorial now? Beautiful.

    There’s an excellent chance, therefore, that and several other pithy messages were hand-delivered to Verlander by his special clubhouse visitors Monday. So, after he’d spun off an enjoyable 1-2-3, two-strikeout first inning in his first All-Star start since 2012, Verlander was asked a question he had to know was coming.

    Has his opinion about the baseball changed since Monday?

    Verlander smiled, took a deep breath, bounced his thoughts around his brain for a second, then replied, carefully, “Good question.” He paused and smiled again. “I think I need to dig a little further.”

    Was it true he’d spoken to his friends at Major League Baseball since we’d heard from him last?

    “Uh, yes,” he said, succinctly, again choosing his words meticulously.

    Could he describe that conversation in any way?

    “No. No,” he said. “Don’t need to.”

    Nevertheless, he admitted he’d heard Manfred’s public response early in the day. Finally, he was asked where he wants it all to go from here.

    “I don’t know,” he answered. “Like I said, those decisions are above my head. It’s just one of those things. If they want to reduce the drag on the ball or put it back the way it was, then we can work together, obviously. I’ve got some input. But you know, I’ve thrown a lot of different baseballs in my career. And I actually talked to some guys yesterday … and they said they’d welcome hearing some of my opinions. So I’m all aboard.”
     
  3. mikol13

    mikol13 Protector of the Realm
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    By “some guys,” he presumably meant “some guys in the commissioner’s office.” But even if he didn’t, let’s think about the rest of those remarks. We have no idea whether Manfred and his team would really “welcome” hearing more of Verlander’s opinions on this topic. But here’s what we think:

    They should. And they should start tomorrow.

    Most kids who get called to the principal’s office don’t emerge as valued members of the Blue Ribbon Committee on Unruly Classroom Behavior. But if that’s what happens in this case, some legitimate good could even come from all of this — because this is a man whose passion for the game he plays is beyond question, even if his theories on what’s at work here might not be born out by the actual facts.

    “And he’s also an expert,” Cole said. “He’s pitched in this league for a decade and a half. And he’s thrown about 3,500 pitches each year. So if anybody’s going to be an expert on the baseball, it’s probably going to be a guy that’s done that.”

    Verlander has thrown 47,251 pitches in his career, according to Baseball Reference. That doesn’t even count spring training, postseason or All-Star games. Think of how many baseballs he has held in his hand. Why wouldn’t baseball care about his opinion on what those baseballs feel like now versus what they felt like five, 10 and 15 years ago? When we ran that idea past other All-Star pitchers Tuesday night, they were all in.

    “He had strong feelings, and I appreciate that,” said the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi. “Look, as pitchers, it’s no secret we want the balls to be as least-flying as possible, the most anti-aerodynamic thing in the world. I’m no scientist. I’m not anything like that. But it seems like there’s been some adjustments. So I think the way he put it out there is the way a lot of guys view it.

    “He’s on his way to a Hall of Fame career. He’s been pitching a number of years. And he’s been through a lot of games and a lot of seasons. So I feel like he’s pretty qualified to be talking on things like that.”

    And you know what? That’s the truth. Who’s more qualified to help “fix” the baseball than the people who throw them? So why stop with just looping in Verlander? What’s the downside to baseball appointing a special advisory committee of veteran pitchers who could help balance the science with real, live game experience?

    Let’s go there. Let’s do this. Let’s solve these problems together instead of shooting conspiracy theories into the All-Star ozone. Everything is better when there’s partnership and cooperation. So what better place to try that than the quest to “fix” the baseball?

    “Look, everybody’s fine about it,” Odorizzi said. “They just want to know what it is. That’s really all we want.”

    And guess what? That’s really all Verlander wants, too.
     
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  4. Plowman

    Plowman Contributing Member
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    This type of stuff has been going on forever now....cookie cutter parks, lowering the mound, steroids......the audaciousness/hypocrisy of having an owner, Bud Selig as "commissioner"...juiced up balls being the norm. Seeing my first love...our National pastime..raped in the pursuit of the almighty dollar breaks my heart.
     
  5. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    Gotta keep your guys on leashes huh? I remember some of this talk with Bregman but it seems like it's stronger with CC....

    He has a point. It's never recognition for working hard but that the balls are juiced. Sad to see Astros fans picking sides.
     
  6. Buck Turgidson

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    They're using the MLB ball in AAA this year, with predictable results. There have been 2061 HRs hit in the PCL this year so far, there were 1955 hit all of last season. 3 teams are on pace to break the single season record set in '99.

    Sounds unbelievable, and I didn't check the numbers, that's from a Statesman article today about the Express.
     
  7. plee

    plee Member

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    I think it might be a combination of things, maybe a slight difference in the balls and maybe even the bats are a bit different. I know with aluminium/composite bats they have a rating system, not sure about wooden bats so they may flex more now than before.
     
  8. Buck Turgidson

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    Dude, what are you talking about? Nobody is using different bats.
     
  9. SemisolidSnake

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    Has anyone determined how much farther balls are flying this year compared to last? I know it mentions in the above article that an astrophysicist has examined this year's balls, but that article is behind a paywall. I can't imagine that it's a significant distance due solely to the ball. So the threshold to look at would be those balls that would have been long outs before that are HRs now. And then the data would also have to be analyzed against launch angle to see if that's higher across the board this year. Then you'd have to throw in exit velocity and see if that's higher in similar circumstances.

    Amazingly, this could all be done now that all the Statcast data is available. It's a real statistical analyst's wet dream. I'm actually watching a series on data analysis right now on Youtube, which has got me thinking about all the ways you could refine the data, though I am not your guy to do it. Definitely a worthy dissertation for an Applied Math doctorate, though.
     
  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    In 2017, it was about 7 feet farther than unjuiced ball. I'm guessing this year it is 8-9 feet.
     
  11. The Real Shady

    The Real Shady Contributing Member

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  12. AznH-TownFan

    AznH-TownFan Member

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    Would y’all trade Correa to Yanks for Torres, an MLB ready starting pitcher and few top prospects after this year? I’m ready to move on from him about a year ago. Something about the dude that make me not lcare to root for.
     
  13. Buck Turgidson

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    Maybe the bats are different?
     
  14. Major

    Major Member

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    Aren't strikeouts way up too? A juiced ball wouldn't explain that. Why not look for scenarios that explain both? For example, pitchers throwing harder or batters swinging for the 3-true-outcome model would likely result in both more HRs and more Ks.
     
  15. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Average exit-velocity numbers per season should be telling.

    And shame on Correa for his ill-timed comments. It's like he went directly against his own teammate. Was anyone talking/inerviewing him or did he just interject from the sideline?
     
  16. SemisolidSnake

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    I think that's got to be part of it. Possibly the main part. Batters are probably swinging up more in general. And, if batters did feel the ball was juiced, it would be even MORE incentive to swing up to get the stacking effect. It might even draw more line-drive hitters into swinging up just to not fall behind. Unless you control for launch angle, distance means little in these comparisons.

    Honestly, the thing I'm really curious about is bat speed vs exit velocity. That's going to tell you if it's the core of the ball affecting the elasticity of the collision. I guess high speed cameras could tell a lot about that as well. Honestly, I'm amazed at how little MLB uses high speed cameras in general, but that's another topic.
     
  17. SemisolidSnake

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    Correa, shut up, and worry more about your juiced masseuse.
     
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  18. Buck Turgidson

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    In a second, but why would the Yankees do it?
     
  19. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    There are a lot of things going on at once. If we look for scenarios that only explain both we will miss scenarios that involve multiple things going on at once that affect some things and not others.

    Once the ball leaves the bat, it is only the ball, air, temperature, and other environmental factors that affect its carry given a specific launch angle and exit velocity. Nothing a hitter or pitch does affects how far a ball goes once it is in flight. The juiced ball is really a more aerodynamic ball.

    Pitchers throwing harder and smarter leads to more Ks. Though, we are probably close to peak velocity.

    Batters trying to drive the ball leads to slightly more Ks and more homers.

    Teams know Ks are going up and more willing to tolerate hitters that strikeout a lot that hit homers as rallies are hard to come by with all the Ks. Teams know batters are getting better and are more willing to select pitchers for Ks instead of those that pitch to contact.
     
  20. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Looking like the balls have been de-juiced a little for October. Rob Arthur at BP has an article up (haven't read it yet, but is about balls on postseason being less lively than regular season) about balls have more drag. Anecdotally, I'vs seen a few balls hit to left center that I thought would be off the wall be harmless flies in MMP.
     

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