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(Passan) Verlander: MLB juicing balls for more offense

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by SemisolidSnake, Jul 8, 2019.

  1. SemisolidSnake

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    The thing I don't get about juiced ball controversies over the years it is why don't you just test for it?

    Here are a couple articles I found about the recent matter:
    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2...a-home-runs-pace-of-play-game-length-rawlings
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/

    The first one links to the second one where 538 just straight up tested some balls from different years. Cut them open, X-rayed them, did other stuff. Differences were found.

    I mean, I'm sure the Astros practice with the same regulation balls that they play with for consistency. JV, just go send a crate of balls to a lab or a university and have them do, well, everything. Multiple ones for extra data points. It'll cost peanuts. Yeah, the league and its now-owned-subsidiary Rawlings will deny it up and down, but you could have thousands of pages of test results right now. The scientific approach to this is by far the easiest approach.
     
  2. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    There were plenty of vocal players calling out Stern and the NBA back in 2006 over the switch to the composite balls... their players union ended up filing a major grievance over it.

    Won't happen in this situation as more than half the union of hitters doesn't mind the change.
     
  3. Major

    Major Member

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    The league has already admitted the balls are different this year.
     
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  4. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Of course Verlander is pissed..... I suspect 75-80% of the runs he has give up this season have scored on homeruns.

    He has a WHIP of .8 and is giving up 5.4 hits per 9 innings.

    Every third hit he gives up is a homer.

    Outside of homers, Verlander has been unhittable.
     
  5. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    "But somehow the balls performed mostly the same for 100 years, and all of the sudden they performed differently after they enacted quality control?"

    And somehow it happened in the year following the acquisition of the company that makes the baseballs by the MLB...
     
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  6. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    Hard to say what his line would be if the ball was the same as the past and hitters weren't trying to elevate the ball as much...yeah he probably would have less homers surrendered but who knows maybe he would have more hits against him.
     
  7. The Real Shady

    The Real Shady Contributing Member

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    It's obvious the ball is juiced. We're seeing tons of slap opposite field HR's this year. No way should players be shattering the league total HR numbers that were in the steroid error.

    This does worry me about Verlander in Cole in the playoffs since they are fastball guys. Seems like groundball pitchers would be more at a premium now.
     
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  8. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Possibly, but Verlander has commented on the homer issue in the past. I don’t have the numbers in front of me but I believe his homers allowed are up 50%.

    Simply stated, it is almost impossible to pitch better than Verlander has while giving up 26 homers in 19 games.

    If his homers were at the same level as last year, his era is below 2.00
     
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  9. SemisolidSnake

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    This whole thing has made me interested in how they're juiced. I hadn't even really thought about it until today. Even if the league admits the balls are different, I'd be curious to know is it the stitches providing less drag, the core being more dense, the casing being more slippery, what.

    But the reason I didn't even think about it, especially with JV, is that he's not giving up little jab hits over the opposite field fence; he's getting burned on his specialty, high fastballs. And the balls I see hit are significantly over the fence.

    This is probably a combination of factors including guys swinging more for the fences than ever, but more than anything, it smacks of a problem with JV. This is an abnormally large percentage of HRs for a pitcher. Stanton even said before Verlander's last start that he'd like to see him throw more changes and curves and back off the fastball a bit. Mix it up. I think guys are just getting wise to it, and he lacks the the extra 3-4 mph that Cole has to still get it past them. Since Justin already knows that he's a flyball pitcher, I think it's easier to think that balls that would normally stay in the park are now going out, but I think it's also true that they're getting tagged harder, regardless.

    I don't feel like this was the best PR move, given that he's clearly got some inherent problems with the home run ball this year that can't be easily explained away by a juiced ball. Even if he's trying to use his clout as a veteran to do a solid for all pitchers in the league, he's going to have some credibility issues.
     
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  10. The Real Shady

    The Real Shady Contributing Member

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    He's definitely given up some no doubters this year as well, but there are those little slap opposite field ones that add up like the one below. I think it's these that are pissing him off the most and you can see JV start to shake his head when one of those get out.

     
  11. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    I don't disagree with you, just playing devil's advocate. His homers allowed are way up, he's giving up 1.85 HR per 9 up from 1.18 last year and 0.93 for his career. However, the majority of the other pitchers in baseball also have given up more homers this season (on pace to have a record breaking season HR wise for the league overall).

    While his are up more than most if not all, he's an extremely aggressive pitcher and hitters have been able to take advantage early in counts particularly when no one is on...which is why his ERA is still so low. 20 of those homers he has given up have been solo homers and nearly all of those have been fastballs in 0-0, 0-1 or 1-0 counts. My point was that it's been a mix of hitter's shift in strategy and the likely juiced baseballs as to why he has given up so many homers.

    In other words, it's not all the juiced baseballs fault he's been giving up more home runs and his ERA wouldn't be below 2 since nearly all of the homers have been solo homers (to be below 2 ERA he would need to have given up 15 less runs).
     
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  12. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    Dallas Keuchel disagrees with your statement of "Seems like groundball pitchers would be more at a premium now".

    In all seriousness, you want guys like JV and Cole because of their insanely high K/9s for a starter...can't hit a home run if you can't make contact. Plus, not really worried given they are far superior to any two pitchers we will be facing and our lineup can hit some homers themselves.
     
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  13. Nook

    Nook Member

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    His era would be below 2.00.... his era is right below 3.00 and he is giving up Almost 3/4 a run a game per nine innings in just from an increase in homers and that is assuming they are all solo shots (which they are not).
     
  14. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    I literally just showed you the stats. 20 of the homers have been solo shots..so yeah they basically have almost all been solo shots. Do the math again...I'll bet you it's over 2.
     
  15. Nook

    Nook Member

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    He has given up 33 runs on his 26 homers allowed this season. 33 of his 42 earned runs this season have come from homeruns. That is an incredibly high percentage.

    The increase in runs allowed via the long ball increase over last year comes to just around a run a game... which would give him an era south of 2.00

    His era minus any long balls is microscopic... 9 runs in 126 innings. His era without homers is approximately .70....

    I don’t doubt that Verlander being aggressive is part of the issue... but my point was that I am sure Verlander is blaming the juiced ball after breaking down his own raw numbers and seeing that an incredibly high percentage of damage done against him is from homeruns.

    Verlander essentially admitted he is aware he is giving up homers in counts and situations he has not in the past.

    There is so many different factors that figure into it. My main point was homers are doing him in and he knows it. He has been exceptional outside of the homers.
     
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  16. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Total MLB HRs per 100 plate apperances

    1993 2.31
    1994 2.66
    1995 2.60
    1996 2.80
    1997 2.64
    1998 2.69
    1999 2.91
    2000 2.99
    2001 2.92
    2002 2.71
    2003 2.78
    2004 2.89
    2005 2.69
    2006 2.86
    2007 2.63
    2008 2.60
    2009 2.70
    2010 2.49
    2011 2.46
    2012 2.68
    2013 2.52
    2014 2.28
    2015 2.67
    2016 3.04
    2017 3.29
    2018 3.02
    2019 3.58


    Even at the height of the steroid era homers per 100 PA never got above 3.00 and the average from 1993-2015 was 2.67 HR/100PA.

    Right now 2019 is 50% above that average!
     
  17. AstrosRockets1818

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    JV can say what he wants. Love that dude.
     
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  18. Joshfast

    Joshfast "We're all gonna die" - Billy Sole
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    Scherzer: I'm not going to cry about juiced baseballs

     
  19. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    This doesn't take into account that fewer balls are hit. Removing PAs with walks, HBPs, and strikeouts, homers are up 65% from pre-juiced ball homer rate 2013) or about 30% higher than peak of steroid era.

    The Athletic had an article (https://theathletic.com/1044790/201...-years-baseballs-and-breaks-down-the-changes/) that stated the following: 2019 balls are rounder (likely largest source of reduced drag), laces are shorter, laces are thicker, seams are lower, leather is smoother, and the ball is bigger. Basically, the 2019 ball blows the 2017 ball (previous juiced ball champ) out of the water.
     
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  20. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Another key stat

    Rob Manfred took over as commissioner in 2015
     

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