Also the Astros have their 2 aces in Verlander and Cole and even the back end with 2 of Valdez, James and Whitley. Having a third Aces would be nice but rather not see them hand out a large contract to a position of strength so bringing back Morton or signing Eovaldi, who I just can't BoSox letting go, or even Happ would be the better route IMO. In fact pretty happy with the pitching staff as a whole.
I want a 35-40 HR threat*. I think that's the missing piece. Correa is a 850-950 guy; but he's (probably) not going to hit more than 25 HRs. I'd love to see Springer, Bregman, Altuve, power-hitter, then Correa. Hopefully, Tucker at #6 & can provide '17 Reddick like production. And, honestly, I very desperately want Tony Kemp to win and maintain full-time DH position because I absolutely love the thought of a .350+ OB% hitting in front of Springer. *A guy like JD Martinez. Just sayin'....
While I would like that also, what I want is an offense like the 2017 one where we explode often with big innings. We were feared that year. The 2018 offense was just too inconsistent. Two or three guys who hit 20-25HR's in addition to Altuve, Springer, Bregman and Correa. That is the ticket for me.
I would be shocked if Tony Kemp isn't still getting fairly regular AB's, but I would also be surprised if he is penciled in as the starting anything. If Reddick rebounds, Tucker claims his spot, and everybody stays healthy it will be tough. But if any of those things don't happen (likely scenario) Kemp will take their job. If we add an outfield bat, then Kemp, White, and Gurriel will platoon 1B/DH with Gurriel playing some other infield spots, and Kemp getting some outfield starts, possibly a few a 2B.
Kemp brings nothing but LF/DH/LHH There has to be a backup CF on the roster, who is that? Why are people assuming White is the DH/1B/RHH?
Because White hit well? Kemp gives us a backup plan for Tucker/Reddick failure C free agent 1B ? 2B Altuve SS Correa 3B Bregman LF Tucker CF Springer RF Reddick DH White (could also play 1B if we sign a DH) C stassi/stubbs 1B/3B Yuli (basically taking Marwin's role) OF Kemp (could DH if we sign an outfielder, an odd DH, but he can get on base) CF Marisnick/Straw That leaves one spot for a big bat acquisition who would effectively take Gattis spot on the roster. Could be a 1B,DH or outfielder. Kemp and White's position would adjust accordingly.
White is Gattis, he might hit a bit but is otherwise worthless. He and Kemp and a couple of AA/AAA arms could get you what?
I don’t think they plan on rostering 13 position players. If they add a bat, one of Marisnick, Kemp, or White has to go. I don’t like Kemp as the backup CF (I actually think White is a better 1B/3B than Kemp is a LF/CF/2B), so he’d be my odd man out.
Why are we assuming White can't repeat what he has done in 2018 and a little in 2017? An OPS in the high .800's is hardly hitting "a bit" Gattis was never as good as White and we kept him for 4 years. It just makes no sense to say we need to upgrade our offense and establish cheaper talent, and then just dump a team controlled guy who has already been hitting MLB pitching because we think it's a fluke when the metrics back up his production. I agree Kemp would be out ahead of White if they go with a 13 man pen (which I would be against) again, but I don't think they will with Kemp being out of options ( I think), and Tucker being so unproven.
I agree with seal and your post. Seal's if it's 13, yours if it's 12. And given that, I wonder if Straw gets the 13th spot and spends the year going up/down since he has options, per bullpen needs and depending on injuries across the roster.
Because he's a burly white dude with a beard? Gattis has a .298 OB% with the Astros; White's was .354 last year. I certainly understand any hesitation is anointing White, and I understand 237 PAs, falls fairly comfortably within a small sample size - but he's at least earned the chance to prove one of us wrong, IMO. Why do you want to dump cheap players who produced over long(ish) stretches for a 103-win team? Teams needs guys like White and Kemp. In fact, I'd argue the emergence of Kemp as a legitimate #9 hitter, to put more traffic on base for Springer, is one of the more exciting developments of 2018.
That's the main reason any talk of letting Kemp/White go and replacing them with an expensive FA is ludicrous to me. If we don't start developing some cheap quality regulars, the window is gonna slam shut on us extremely quick. Crane isn't gonna spend 200 million cobbling a team together around Bregman, Correa and Altuve.
We're spoiled. Our 2B, SS, 3B, CF and top 2 SPs are all likely top 5-10 at their positions. But that's wildly unique and, as you said, if we want to keep the nucleus, we're going to *have* to get cheap production *somewhere* - even if it's not All-Star-level production. If Kemp & White produce at the level they did last year, they, either together as a platoon or separately, absolutely should be playing everysingleday.
We sure are. We have enjoyed an unceasing period of years (since 2014?) where every year, the team as a whole got better. The incoming talent as a whole was better than the outgoing. This is the first year since 2014 or so where replacing the outgoing talent with better players may not be so easy.
Oh, I'm not worried. Keuchel has been consistently inconsistent for three seasons - even when healthy - and, while he had stretches last year, was only slightly above-average. McHugh and/or Peacock could almost certainly replace him without the team skipping a beat. Morton would, IMO, be a bigger loss - but he's also limited by his durability. Having said that, Whitley, James... there are several pitchers with much higher ceilings already in our system. As for Marwin, he's been a nice, useful player & he'll leave behind some monumental postseason memories - but I not only think some combination of Gurriel/Kemp/White/Tucker will easily replace him; I think they'll represent a significant upgrade.
PA/fWAR lost vs projected replacements: Marwin 552 PA, 1.6 fWAR: Tucker will get these PA (with Yuli replacing Marwins defensive versatility), and I predict will be worth much more than 1.6 fWAR. Upgrade. Gattis 451 PA, 0.0 fWAR: 351 of those PA will go to Tyler White, another 100 will go to a healthy Correa (who only had 468 PA). Upgrade. McCann/Maldonado 330 PA, 0.8 fWAR: This is where they will obviously make a move. Hopefully a big one to bring in a player who can not only take these PA but also take some of Stassi’s. They should have the resources to make it happen. Likely upgrade. IP/fWAR lost vs replacements: Keuchel 204.2 IP, 3.6 fWAR: Even if they resign Morton I think they will still need to make a significant move to solidify the pitching staff. There are too many options, and not knowing who all is available or exactly what the financial situation is, it’s hard to guess what will happen. But for now I would bet the opening day SP3 will not be quite as good as Keuchel (hoping I’m wrong). Likely downgrade. Morton 167 IP, 3.1 fWAR: They may bring him back. They could make more than one rotation acquisition via trade or free agency. Otherwise, it’ll be some combination of Josh James, Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock, Framber Valdez, and others. Either way they’ll be fine, but I don’t see them getting 3.1 fWAR out of their SP4 in 2019. Likely slight downgrade. McCullers 128.1 IP, 2.5 fWAR: I’m pencilling in Forrest Whitley, the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, for these innings. He has a decent chance to match this production. Push. Giles/Sipp 68.2 IP, 1.6 fWAR: Osuna/Pressly will get these innings an likely outperform Giles/Sipp. Upgrade. So if they do what I expect them to do, the team will be roughly as good or slightly better than 2018. But they have an opportunity (by somehow pulling off big moves for both catcher and pitcher without giving up Whitley/Tucker) to field their best team yet.
