Maybe not, but you're certainly acting as though Springer hitting a game-winning HR was a given. It's the only logical explanation for why you're so up in arms over this.
I don't think high probability was argued either way. Some posts (not yours) argued that the differences between probabilities were significant enough that stealing was the obvious choice, and that every manager would have handled it the same way. This, specifically, is where the argument started. The probabilities don't differ enough for that to be the case in a single game situation. If we were to encounter this situation repeatedly, and the game situation wasn't exactly as it was last night, maybe the probabilities could be looked to more decisively. I don't have a problem with anything you or @kaleidosky posted . Stealing was definitely a valid approach.
I didn't attribute "high probability" to you. Just the first part about the steal costing the Astros the game.
Where does this one-track thinking come from? Besides a potential HR.... - double - wild pitch.... which advances the runner - walk... with Altuve due up - single... with Altuve due up Let's not forget Fisher's potential fatigue factor.. which lowers the 75% steal-rate @Major introduced. I still think the main factor was the ump's ball-strike calls. Musgrove kinda sucked too along with Hinch.
I just can't possibly understand everyone defending the steal call. It was a downright horrible decision point blank and period. Fisher can steal a base here and there sure, but he's no Rickie Henderson. He has a high success rate in the minors but lets also factor in the obvious that he was stealing against less quality competition. For **** sakes he was 13/10 this year in steals in AAA. Bottom line, screw the stats. It was a bad decision bc Springer has been hot and the last thing you want is to end the game on a moronic play like that. If Springer pops out/strikes out so be it but I trust him to hit in the clutch more than I trust a jack*** manager asking a 3 day rookie to try and steal. Especially considering we suck at it. Oh and one last thing. EVERY DECISION IS A **** DECISION IF IT DOESNT WORK UNLESS THE ONLY POSSIBLE OUTCOME WAS BAD!!! RANT OVER/
Exactly the reason why you've claimed the "most insufferable poster" award named after Cangegrero, "your friend".
I love how you conveniently clipped off the end of that sentence to provide inaccurate context to what I wrote. #Yellowjournalism
Springer can get a hit here and there sure, but he's no Hank Aaron. I mean, talk about setting a ridiculous standard... We're just going to ignore the fact he not once but twice had the base stolen, only to have Aoki spoil the attempt with ill-advised swings? What does the team's success stealing bases have to do with... well, anything? Also, the Astros are better at stealing bases than MLB is at getting multiple hits off of Craig Kimbrel. BUT SCREW THE STATS! Also, I don't understand the rookie angle - are you suggesting he's incapable of stealing a base? I mean, they let him HIT against one of the game's dominant closers and he proved rather good at it.... why would you suddenly treat him with kid gloves? Huh?
What did the rest of it have to do with anything? The statement as is actually made very little sense. "Every decision is a bad decision if it doesn't work unless the only possible outcome was bad" You're going to have to explain that further.
So let me help you... In the seemingly likely case that you don't understand that whole UNLESS word: http://www.dictionary.com/browse/unless
Alright lemme try again for the genius of the board. IF EVERY POSSIBLE OUTCOME IN A SITUATION IS BAD, THEN NO DECISION THAT IS MADE CAN CORRECT FOR THE EVENTUALITY OF THE POOR OUTCOME. IF THERE ARE OUTCOMES THAT COULD POTENTIALLY NOT BE BAD, THEN ONLY THE EVENTUAL GOOD OUTCOMES ARE THE CORRECT DECISIONS. I realize baseball is a game of chance and numbers and whatnot, but what I am saying is that it didn't work. Therefore it was a bad decision. And Hinch has made plenty of those in his tenure. But go apologize for him some more you insufferable Hinch fans.
1. Fair. I concede. I still say stealing there was a huge risk. 2. Yes we are going to ignore, bc THEY DIDN'T ****ING COUNT!!! 3. I'm suggesting that baserunning is something that players occasionally take time to develop and improve on. I'm not saying he couldn't do it. Sure, he could have stolen second, third, home, maybe even Chase Bank! BUT IN THAT PARTICULAR SITUATION I THINK IT WAS A TERRIBLE IDEA. SUE ME.
You are correct. For that situation it was incredibly stupid. I knew he was out before the catcher threw it.
You actually went in and changed my post. Now who's looking to get banned. Anyway you can change posts all you want but it won't matter. You have like 4 friends on here and nobody else likes you. You are a super tool. And when you get mad you turn into a little bi***
Who's mad? There's only one immature little b**** here... and he seems to only post to complain about losses. Certainly glad there's far less of that this year...
That's EXACTLY what I said you posted before... but you had some weird qualifier. So again, if this is what you truly mean... are you sure you want to bark up that tree?
I'm gonna assume there is somebody vehemently arguing against the steal, and Nick isn't just talking to himself? The fact that I already have these people on ignore is kind of telling.
Someone needs to go to Internet school to learn how to be a better poster. Oh well, ain't nobody got time for that. /ignore