Bright side is they've been able to maintain the biggest divisional lead in baseball despite all the injuries and a slump.
So what do you call analyzing sets of numbers, and drawing conclusions from them? History? lol. No. Math/Statistics/who gives a ****?. All you are trying to do is explain away poor statistical analysis with semantics. Don't paint yourself into that corner. I'm not saying there wasn't a statistical reason for the move. I just don't think it would be significant enough to justify calling stealing the obvious move. Even in your (EXTREMELY) rough formula, it was only a 5-6% difference in success rate. I think with a deeper analysis of the situation that margin would decrease even further if not change completely. I am not going to write up some equation, but your equation is far from conclusive and shouldn't be treated as such,.
I think he had already used Marwin as a pinch runner for McCann in the previous inning. I can't disagree with the rest of your points...although the ump had some pretty bad strike calls in favor of the Astros during the game as well. None as egregious as the entire at-bat to Gurriel, but there were bad calls going both ways.
Sure about that? Let's look at the numbers... baserunners have a 68% success rate against Vazquez, who leads all of baseball with six passed balls. Meanwhile, Kimbrel has given up a HR less than 1% of the time and an extra base hit 4%. Altogether, he gives up a hit ~8% of the time. He's given up exactly multi-hit innings 3% of the time this year (once in 30 games), and Fisher had already dinged him. So, honestly.... statistically.... the Astros' best path to tying the score was Fisher steals 2nd, moves to 3rd on an Aoki out, scores on a passed ball. All significantly more likely than Springer getting an extra-base hit or home run.
Any way that you slice it, we are talking about a very small variance in the likelihood of outcomes, I don't want to re-hash the whole discussion, but I am not arguing stealing isn't justifiable.
I mostly watched the 5th inning on... bad calls were quadruple in BOS's favor. One team had a clear (game-changing) advantage in that regard... from 5th inning on, at least. Did Marwin stay in the game? He's not much faster than Aoki if at all. Marwin has a much better bat and switching ability. Dumb move by Hinch if true. He should've fought for Yuli too. I'm dropping my view of him to below-average instead of average.
Yep; I agree - that's why it's hard to fathom why anyone would argue a steal there was in anyway "wrong" - desperate time, desperate measure... Against Craig Kimbrel, there is no "right" way to beat him; you just hope you get lucky. The guy is on his way to having a season for the ages.
I think he in stayed in, but prob for Gurriel at 1B since he got tossed. Gattis came in to catch since Marwin replaced McCann on the bases.
Exactly-I don't see why people argue against a more conservative approach either. In that situation it might have worked, and people shouldn't obsess over small statistical variances in single game situations.
I think it's rooted in a) the steal being a perfectly legitimate approach that people are only upset about because it didn't work; b) the seeming certainty that Springer would hit a game-winning home run
sure. and on the other side, people don't want games ended on the bases. ever , and Springer is playing career baseball. Also, perfectly legitimate,
Are people arguing otherwise? I was responding to a guy who kept calling the steal a terrible decision and blaming the loss on it. I think all of us would've loved to see Springer get a chance there... but anyone that thinks there was a high probability of success is delusional.
Meanwhile, Oakland just swept the Yankees in 4 games at home. Lets hope were not walking into a buzz saw.
Yeah because "high probability" was certainly mentioned. Now you just wanna make stuff up. Nobody said there was a "high probability" of anything.
Can we start the Astros vs A's thread and put this one to bed? It's barely even about baseball anymore.
It would be but the dork patrol likes to mix it up. Mostly led by a wanna be moderator weirdo. But yes most of us love talking baseball.
