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[Official] Red Sox @ Astros

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Jun 16, 2017.

  1. UTAllTheWay

    UTAllTheWay Member

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    No doubt in my mind that if Springer singles and Fisher is stuck at 2nd or 3rd, you would be the guy complaining that they didn't steal.

    Only reason you dont like that call is because it didnt work. Managers will never win that battle.
     
    RockFanFirst and kaleidosky like this.
  2. T for 3

    T for 3 Member

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    Bottom line: if Hinch doesn't run him, and we loose with Fisher stranded at third after Springer singles, there isn't a ****ing word being said about how Hinch should have run Fisher. Not one word.
     
    Nook likes this.
  3. Yaosthirdleg

    Yaosthirdleg Member

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  4. Major

    Major Member

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    You generally have a 70-80% chance of stealing and only needing a single. Springer's odds of hitting a HR against Kimbrel vs a single are a hell of a lot worse than the 20-30% chance you have of losing the game on the steal. Basic math says your odds of winning, while low no matter what, are a hell of a lot higher if you attempt the steal. Again, both teams knew we were going to try to steal there because it's the move every team makes - for a very good reason.
     
    kaleidosky likes this.
  5. Major

    Major Member

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    I'm so very glad the team makes decisions based on what gives them the best chance to win rather than whether math-challenged fans will whine or not.
     
  6. Tomstro

    Tomstro Member

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    If you are referring to me then STFU. You have no clue.
     
  7. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Why so easily assume the only possible hits are singles?
     
  8. Tomstro

    Tomstro Member

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    Because he's not too bright?
     
  9. UTAllTheWay

    UTAllTheWay Member

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    The fact that Kimbrel has only given up one extra base hit all year long to a right handed batter.
     
  10. T for 3

    T for 3 Member

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    this coming from a guy who's superior math skills lead him to believe a few months ago that Jose Altuve was likely going to be a career 290/375/830 guy? Ok, you are right, I should defer to your brilliance.
     
  11. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run

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    Apparently if someone has been great, that means they're due for a bad outing. If they're bad, they're just bad, so they're going to have a bad outing. This is the logic being used (by one person)
     
  12. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    Because the outfield was defending against the XBH, has shown the ability the hose down even our fastest base runners multiple times this series, and righties have a .146 ops against Kimbrel.
     
    Hey Now! likes this.
  13. STR8Thugg

    STR8Thugg STR8Thugg Member

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    That was the stupidest thing ive ever seen. Worst baserunning team in baseball history. I HATE HINCH!!!!
     
  14. STR8Thugg

    STR8Thugg STR8Thugg Member

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    Hinch is absolutely horrendous and tonight is just an example. If we evr win a WS itll be despite him.
     
  15. UTAllTheWay

    UTAllTheWay Member

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    You're right, because the idea of stealing a base and giving the team a better chance to win wouldn't have even crossed people's minds.

    Which is why we're all sitting on a computer talking about it, and Hinch is the one managing the team with the best record in baseball.
     
  16. mick fry

    mick fry Member

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    All Hail Lord Hinch! If Springer hit the game winning hr with Fisher on first then that would have been the right call as well. Thank you for being the best manager in baseball Hinch and kudos also to Mr. Pettis for you two have single handedly turned these no talent bums into contenders.
     
    T for 3 likes this.
  17. T for 3

    T for 3 Member

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    Is that so? Then why is the idea being bandied about as if it were the plainly obvious decision that any manager would make?

    Certainly, Hinch would have been called out after the game for losing it?

    Ha! yea right. Whatever decision he made would have been assumed correct.
     
  18. Major

    Major Member

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    For simplicity. If you want the full math, let's assume:

    75% chance of a steal

    10% chance Springer gets a single
    5% chance he hits a double or better
    15% chance Altuve gets a single or better

    If you steal, your odds of scoring a run are 75% * 15% (any hit will do) = 11.25%

    If you don't steal, your odds of scoring are 5% + 10% * 15% = 6.5%

    You can tweak the numbers, and there are lots of smaller things like wild pitches or walks or whatnot, but in any scenario, you're going to come out with a substantially better chance to win by attempting the steal. Again, this is not even a fancy Astros-analytics thing. It's pretty much as textbook a baseball move as you get by any manager to get a runner into scoring position when you're down 1 and have a great base stealer on 1st. Even more important when you have a pitcher like Kimbrel out there.
     
  19. Major

    Major Member

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    You do understand that prediction has nothing to do with math, right? If you don't even understand what math is, I can see why this would be so confusing.
     
  20. mick fry

    mick fry Member

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    How so? You are down a run, you may have a better chance to tie if you didn't have an exhausted baserunner but I'm sure your percentages would pertain more to a fresh Altuve.
     

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