[Official] Rangers @ Astros

Why do you say that? During the 2017 regular season he failed less than any other AL closer in save situations except one. So far this season he has faced the minimum number of hitters in save situations and is 5-5.

 

I just think he sucks. I don’t think he has the right mentality. I think I saw him punch himself in the face.

 

Except for when he was terrible, he's been excellent since this arbitrary date.

 

If he continues saving games at the rate he did last regular season and this season, he can punch whatever he wants.

 

I have no idea what ‘lately’ means since he has been just about perfect for over a month.

 

Next 19/21 against main AL competition and definitely toughest stretch of season. Right now Astros have only won one series against a “good” team (Mariners). As constructed, what are folks expecting over 19 game stretch? (7 against CLE, 3 against Yankees, 3 against Angels, 2 against Mariners, and 4 against Boston)

 

5-2, 2-1, 2-1, 2-0, 2-2=13-6

 

Good win against the hated Rangers.

Onto some CA revenge.

 

Hitters have been hitting ball hard off him since April 6th. He's not getting grounders. He's not getting pop ups. He's not getting Ks. He is throwing strikes and preventing walks, but his pitching since April 6 looks like a combination of good defense and luck that hitters are hitting ball at defenders.

Earned runs is a horrible measure for a relief pitcher in short stretches. His ERA is unsustainable if he keeps pitching like he has been.

 

Last year the complaint was that he wasn't pitching 'clean' innings. This year he has been pitching clean innings regardless of the lack of strike outs. I agree that ERA is a poor measure for closers. Giles is the perfect example this season. One bad game destroyed his.

 

I agree.

So lets look at IRS % (Inherited Runner Scored Percentage)

2017 https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/houst...s=0&qual=0&sortOrder=0&splitType=128&statID=0

All the worst offenders we let go of in the off-season (Feliz, Clippard, Gregorson) & Hoyt gone for now. Of those still on the team, these had the worst IRS% for 2017.

Sipp 46.7%
Harris 43.5%
Giles 38.9%


2018 https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/houst...s=0&qual=0&sortOrder=0&splitType=128&statID=0

The samples are small, but Peacock has done the worst to this point allowing 4 of 9 inherited runners to score followed by Harris allowing 2 of 3.

You can see who has been in there the most when runners are on (Devo & Peacock), not Giles.

 

I was perfectly fine with how he pitched last regular season.

Looking at stats that stabilize quickly, Giles's xFIP (on ERA scale) is 3.95 and his xwOBA is 0.388. Giles typically has about 2-3 14-game stretches a year with an xFIP at around 3.95 so that isn't too worrisome as it could be just a normal bad stretch of xFIP. His 2015, 2016, 2017 xwOBAs (OBA scale) are 0.278, 0.278, and 0.251. In other words, from 2015 to 2018, he gave up contact + Ks + BBs of similar value to something between what Gattis and Fisher have done this. However this year, he's giving up contact +Ks + BBs of similar value to what Correa does. If Giles keeps giving up hard contact without Ks, he's going to start giving up a lot more runs than he's been doing.

I completely expect he either starts lowering his xwOBA (i.e., starts pitching better) or people will start complaining again about Giles being mentally weak often in a month or two. SInce 2015 (Statcast public data), no pitcher has been successful with an xwOBA at or above 0.388 with 100 batters faced. Iwakuma, besides Giles this year, has probably been the best of non-Statcast stats and he ended up with a 4.35 ERA, 5.89 xFIP last year.

Edit: I do expect his xwOBA to decrease, but it has a lot to go to being acceptable for a high leverage reliever. His slider isn't moving well. I'm guessing something is off mechanically or the Astros are trying to change him. The change has adversely affected his slider while he appears to be gaining control on his fastball.

 

How many pitches did Peacock give up inherited runners on? I think the answer is 2 pitches as I think he had a bad result with an inherited bases loaded. Should we judge a pitcher on the result of two pitches?

 

I think I mentioned the 2018 samples were small. Look at 2017 if you want larger samples.

 

I assume that is true of most closers since they tend to be used to start the 9th inning.

 

Peacock let 1 inherited runner get stranded last year. Francis Martes and Reymin Guduan were the best two at stranding inherited runners. I'm thinking that stat is not the most predictive. Enough sample and it should level out, but relievers typically don't pitch enough in a season to get that sample size.

 

eh, I don't know if I agree here. K% increase being the main point of discussion.