1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[Official] Astros Offseason Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Nov 2, 2017.

  1. Major

    Major Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 1999
    Messages:
    33,794
    Likes Received:
    2,293
    But this goes to my point. How the Astros benefiting here? Regardless of how they distribute the money, they would be paying him $126MM for a 3 year extension - that's over $40MM/yr. I doubt they would offer him $120MM for 3 years when he's a free agent, so there's certainly no reason to offer that now when they have the option of seeing what the next two years produces without any of the risk. The only way this makes sense for the Astros if they get a discount in exchange for doing this early - and that would make no sense for Altuve given that he's already done that once.
     
    jim1961 and Joe Joe like this.
  2. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2002
    Messages:
    4,198
    Likes Received:
    570
    Cost certainty is one thing. If they don't get his extension years at a true discount, knowing what his number will be now allows them to better game plan the rest of the salary cap.

    The other thing is it might make more sense to carry a higher cap number on Altuve now than later when everyone is that much more expensive. We're not even close to the luxury tax so the only question would be whether Cramer minds paying his MVP slightly more now than later.
     
  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    13,595
    Likes Received:
    1,753
    Luxury tax doesn't matter for the Astros. Astros are unlikey to hit it during Altuve's next contract. Spending more now should not be a concern for Crane as today dollars are worth more than future. It may matter a little for Luhnow if he has room under the annual budget Crane has given him.

    On cost certainty, it is only a good thing if it is a discount or reasonable price. Paying 40+ million average annual value (even if some of it is spread to other years) is pretty much a cost Astros are certain they can get Altuve to accept in two years. Locking it in now does nothing for them except opens them up for injury/unexpected decrease in value risk.
     
  4. mikol13

    mikol13 Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2009
    Messages:
    5,947
    Likes Received:
    3,819
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    13,595
    Likes Received:
    1,753
    Jose Altuve is a class act.
     
    raining threes, bigdaddy and mikol13 like this.
  6. mikol13

    mikol13 Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2009
    Messages:
    5,947
    Likes Received:
    3,819
    Regardless of anyone’s beliefs, I’m glad he shut it down as quickly as possible. Media trying to make it fit their narrative.
     
    Hemo_jr likes this.
  7. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,474
    Likes Received:
    2,436
    They benefit because they have an exclusive negotiating window with him right now, before he's a free agent and can be courted by other teams. They benefit because they could then keep him within his first few years after he presumably hits free agency, where he's still very much in his prime. Lastly, they're not saddled with a contract that has them overpaying for later years and getting less performance.

    And, it wouldn't be $126 for 3... they'd also be buying out the next 2 years as well which is a requirement to get to those final 3/90.
     
  8. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,474
    Likes Received:
    2,436
    The extension beyond free agent years would be $90/3, by getting a 5 year deal now and increasing the amount he gets over the next 2 already controlled years.

    I agree, they don't get him to ink a 3 year deal once he becomes a free agent. I also don't think the Astros are interested in offering him (or anybody not named Correa) an 8 year deal 2 years from now.

    Basically, I'd be looking for a way to secure Altuve till at least 2022-23 now... vs. waiting till 2020 and having all teams have a crack at him.

    So again, I ask you (if you're Altuve's agent)... would you consider signing a 5 year $130 million dollar deal today? And if that does open the lines of communication, I don't see why an extension should not be explored by both sides?
     
  9. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    2,539
    Likes Received:
    890
    $130M does not get the conversation started. It would probably be considered an insult since they’ve made it clear they intend to fully test free agency. Altuve will wait until Machado, Donaldson, and Harper sign next offseason and use those as comps.

    Keuchel on the other hand could more easily be dealt with now. Arrieta and Darvish are pretty good comps for him.
     
  10. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,474
    Likes Received:
    2,436
    I think its actually the reverse of that. Altuve has 2 more years before he can test free agency.... which yes, if he has every intention of doing that, the Astros nor his agent shouldn't even broach the topic of an extension now. He'll also be older than Harper or Machado, and possess' a skillset that could decline as his speed declines (then again, he could continue to add power, as he's been apt to do).

    But, would him getting hypothetically $130 million over the next 5 years, vs. $12 million over the next 2 years (and then unknown) be a full insult? I don't know... hence why its an interesting discussion.

    Keuchel will be a free agent next year, and is one solid year away from getting a better deal than what Arrieta and Darvish got.... or he's one bad/injury riddled year from being a guy the Astros could probably retain with a 1-3 year deal (if they feel he's worth it). If I'm the Astros, I have no desire to lock Keuchel up to anything more than a 3-4 year deal... and that's stretching it a bit. I really don't see them looking to retain him, along with the fact that I'm glad they didn't buy out his remaining arbitration years or a FA year these last 2 years... as they wouldn't have gotten their money's worth.
     
  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    13,595
    Likes Received:
    1,753
    He is owed 12.5 million next two years. Paying him additional money in those two years is part of the cost for getting the additional three years even if not paid in those additional three years. So yes, it is 127.5 million for a three year extension...not just 90.

    I'm not Altuve and I'm not Altuve's agent (shocker). My values do not line up with players and agents. Altuve is already set for life. Boras is his agent. Boras's modus operandi is to take his clients to free agency and attempt to get the most guaranteed money possible. Baseball players set for life tend to go to free agency.

    While Astros should try for an extension, it should not be a shocker if Altuve and Boras ask for the moon to accept one.
     
  12. Major

    Major Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 1999
    Messages:
    33,794
    Likes Received:
    2,293
    Sure - but the Astros almost certainly don't *want* Altuve from 2020-2022 at $42MM per year for 3 years. So having the right to exclusively negotiate with him at that rate is not worth anything. It only makes sense for them if they get him at some kind of discount, and getting more money per year than any player ever likely doesn't really qualify.

    The fact that they have to pay more now is exactly what makes it $126MM for 3 years. They'd be paying an extra $126MM to keep Altuve for an extra 3 years. How you distribute the money or divide it up is irrelevant.

    There are some situations where there is a win-win (Jon Singleton; Altuve last time around) for both the team and the player. There are others where it's a win-lose but close enough that you might be able to get something done. This seems like a lose-lose to me. I don't think the Astros would be interested and I don't think Altuve would be interested.
     
  13. Nippystix

    Nippystix Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2013
    Messages:
    980
    Likes Received:
    366
    I also feel big bad Boras is being more and more exposed. This is not the first offseason where he has led several of his free agents down. And remember, it's ultimately the player's call here. If Altuve tells Boras he wants to sign an extension with the Astros, Boras will do everything he can to extract every penny from that deal, but they will still sign the extension. This isn't the NBA, the agent works for the player.

    Front offices previously caved into Boras and his lofty demands. I think they just showed him that they have no problem picking up their ball and going home, and moving quickly to options B, C, or D.

    All that said, I think it would be a great idea to create some goodwill within the clubhouse (specifically Correa), tear up Altuve's remaining two team-friendly years, and sign him to an extension that is fair for us, and keeps one of the best players on the planet (and heart of our clubhouse) happy. I'd gladly do the 8/180 that sealclubber threw out there.
     
  14. Buck Turgidson

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    33,290
    Likes Received:
    10,984
    All I was saying is "keep them honest". That's been a pitching axiom for as long as there has been pitching. I want Giles to do it more.

    Funk'n Wagner never ever trusted anything but his fastball.
     
  15. bigdaddy

    bigdaddy Super Trucker
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2001
    Messages:
    582
    Likes Received:
    105
    Absolutely
     
  16. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,474
    Likes Received:
    2,436
    The "discount" is built into the fact that he's already an Astro now, and has been secured past where his arb eligible years would have been, thanks to a bargain-basement extension he agreed to. I see many here saying that the best time to negotiate with him would be after the next 2 years... where he should be looking for a 5-8 year deal that takes him through age 34-36. I just disagree with that premise... and its still likely to cost any team (including the Astros) a large amount of money/year, at an expected production that is less than what he will give you over the next 5 years. If you're not on board with trying to re-sign Altuve at all, then this is a pointless discussion.

    Looking back, neither of those moves were win-win. They didn't need to overpay for Singleton, especially if it played a role in his lack of work ethic (and some say, they got him on the 40 man roster to avoid additional suspension). We already know Altuve has lost millions of earning potential (but he also admits that he is unlikely to be the player he is now if he didn't feel the shaft of that contract).
     
  17. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,474
    Likes Received:
    2,436
    And so, the $127 million more over 3 years wouldn't move that needle?

    I'm not on board with the Astros offering him 6-8 years, 2 years from now, and paying more for past performance. I am on board with paying him obscene amounts for prime years... of which he should still have some more past the next 2 years (just not the full 6-8 years past the next 2 years).
     
  18. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    13,595
    Likes Received:
    1,753
    I am highly confident Altuve and Boras's deciding criteria will be guaranteed money and that Altuve is willing to bet on himself this time. Altuve will be able to greatly exceed $127.5 million in 2 years if he stays healthy. As such, I don't think $127.5 million moves the needle at all for Altuve. If Astros want to keep Altuve, they are going to have to pay him in some of the years past his prime. Sure, the deal is going assume he doesn't play as well, but that is the only way Astros are going to compete with other teams or what Boras thinks other teams will pay if the Astros try to entend him now.

    What odds do you think Astros sign Altuve to an extension?
     
  19. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    8,491
    Likes Received:
    1,223
    You and Nick almost have me convinced that keeping Altuve is going to cost so much as to be prohibitive to try to keep him at all :(
     
  20. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    13,595
    Likes Received:
    1,753
    While I am highly pessimistic about getting an extension done with Altuve, I think the Astros re-sign him in a couple of years. It is going to suck for Crane's wallet having to spend some of that multi-World Series Championship money.
     
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now