To me they are still the 4th best team in their division and are setup for an epic fire sale come July. Puig, Wood, Gray, Kemp, Gennett, Roark, and David Hernandez are all free agents after the season. The worst thing that could happen to them is they are close at the deadline, try and win, and come up short. They need to turn those pending free agents into prospects. Edit: Apparently the Reds are trying to sign Gray to an extension.
Perhaps, but the NL Central should be pretty strong this year. 4th best in that division may not be too shabby all things considered. It looks like they're trying to emulate the 2015 'Stros (i.e., a good amount of talent coming up the pipelines in a culture flush with some proven and motivated vets). They're coming off 67 losses, so they're not going to be title contenders immediately. But I think they're shooting for that 85-win, borderline WC echelon team. And they're not that far off from that type of performance. They've got some good young players in their farm and on the ML roster. Who knows...they could very well add more players before it's all said and done. They've been one of the more active teams so far, and they've been mentioned as having interest in a slew of players still available. A starting lineup of: Peraza (SS), Gennett (2B), Votto (1B), Suarez (3B), Kemp (LF), Puig (RF), Schebler/Winkler (CF), and Burnhart (C) can pretty much hang with anyone. And Puig could be a monster this year, especially at that park and on the cusp of free agency. Wood, Gray, Castillo, Roark, DeScalfani, and Mahle isn't a bad rotation by any means. It's not championship caliber, but their team as constructed could very well land in that slightly above .500 camp (depending how things shake out).
Soo... sounds like we are in agreement. It took 91 wins to get the 2nd Wild Card in the NL last year. Reds are barely a top 10 team in the NL with a large number of pending key free agents. What good does winning 84 games, missing the playoffs, and watching all those free agents leave with maybe some comp picks as compensation do for a team? Selling at the deadline and getting prospects makes more sense. Dodgers Brewers Cubs Nationals Braves Phillies Cardinals Rockies Mets/Reds
Yeah. I don't see them actually making the playoffs in 2019 (absent 2-3 more big additions a la Kuechel/Pollock and the cookie crumbling their away). But that doesn't mean they can't have a good, productive, positive season. Even if they don't make the playoffs, even if they end around 85 wins. That's still a fantastic year for their organization! It'll give their young core players confidence, while also allowing them to grow and get better in the future. That's the process, and it's absolutely vital for smaller market teams. It's not black and white. The season isn't just a waste if they miss the playoffs. You don't go from 95 losses to 91 wins in one offseason, not unless you're in BOS, NYY, or LAD. Sustainable competition is a product of change, a product that requires a transformation in culture. It's something HOU fans should know all too well. It's more than just an excel spreadsheet analyzing comp picks and veteran free agents. CIN direly needs to change the culture, and they have given themselves the ability to fast-track that process this season. TL;DR: CIN can still have a very successful season and still miss the playoffs.
Not much. Though a team that can win 84 games can get lucky and win 94. Reds are praying for some luck.
Pretty much this. They didn't give up too much in terms of top flight talent, just 2nd tier prospects. If they can get themselves into a pennant chase it could be great for their young players and reigniting fan interest (and potential free agents). Maybe they even have a few career years and pull off one of those fluke WS wins we occasionally see. Or if things don't go well, they can always pull the ripcord and trade the guys they added. Recouping the prospects they lost would likely be pretty easy. All considered it's a pretty low risk venture to take a chance at competing.
He had a 6+ ERA at Yankee Stadium and wants to sign an extension to play out his prime at Great American Ballpark, one of the worst pitching friendly stadiums in baseball? All 'bout that dough. I still do not understand what the Reds are doing, at all.
His ERA on the road was a very ace-like 3.17. Either his home/road splits are a fluke or Gray can't handle NY crowd. As Cincy doesn't have fans, getting booed at home should not be an issue. I expect Gray will be an okay pitcher and well worth deal. Edit: Looking more at deal a little more, Cincy gave up a better prospect than I originally thought as I was looking at what NYY got and not what Cincy gave up. I like the deal from Mariners prospective as they likely get a prospect upgrade for not having a 40-man roster crunch.
State of free agency, 1/22: Position Players I think could help Houston: Stars: Harper (would be willing to go $360M/14yr) Pollock ($70M/5yr) Machado ($200M/5yr) Regulars (would only make sense if Houston could find a taker for Reddick or Gurriel): Moustakas Marwin Asdrubal Cabrera Carlos Gonzalez Markakis NRI candidates: Gattis Neil Walker Morrison Duda Joyce Grossman Melky Cabrera Starting Pitchers I think could help Houston: Stars: Keuchel ($80M/5yr) MoR/BoR 2 year deal candidates: Wade Miley Brett Anderson Clay Buchholz MoR/BoR 1 year deal (w/club option 2nd) candidates: Gio Gonzalez Pomeranz Ervin Santana Karns Fister Francisco Liriano NRI candidates: Estrada Tomlin Hammel Hellickson Shields Edwin Jackson Colon Gallardo There is only 1 elite reliever left (Kimbrel), but there are upwards of 2 dozen guys who I think would be worth bringing in on a cheap 1 year deal or as an NRI to see if they can earn the 7th reliever spot. Jake Diekman, Brad Boxberger, and Brad Brach are at the top of the list. Also wouldn't be opposed to bringing back Sipp as an NRI.
Asdrubal Cabrera just signed a 1 yr $3.5M deal with the Rangers. That's a steal. He easily should have received a multiyear deal similar to what Jed Lowrie got. He's averaged 2.6 fWAR and 20 HR over the last 3 seasons and can probably play passable defense everywhere except C and CF. This does not bode well for Marwin. As we get closer to opening day, I wouldnt mind Houston snatching up a decent bat desperate for a spot (Marwin, Mike Moustakas, Carlos Gonzalez, Nick Markakis, Derek Dietrich) that would allow them to shop Reddick for a pitcher under a similar (slightly underwater) contract (Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, Jordan Zimmerman, Wei-Yin Chin, Ian Kennedy, and Mike Leake come to mind).
Definitely getting the feeling teams' budgets are running out other than those hoping to snag Harper or Machado.
Re-sign Keuchel already and let him retire a Stro. We're not going to be able to keep both Verlander and Cole, possibly either...so just do it.
I’m for this. I think Astros can retain JV on a shorter term deal but Cole is going to be next years Corbin. Having Keuchel, Whitley, (maybe) McCullers & James would be a lot of team control with hopefully JV or Cole returning
He isn't signed because of his asking price. We shouldn't sign him right now for the same reason. If Boras convinces him to stay the same course, he may end up as a holdout without work come seasons start. We will just have to see how it plays out. My guess is he gets signed. Less than he wants, but more than we will offer him.
Markakis back to Atlanta for $4M (plus $2M buyout on $6M 2020 team option). Another steal. Also does not bode well for Marwin (or Reddick’s value).
I bet he sure wishes he'd have signed that 5 year 90 million offer after the 2015 season. Who knew these last 2 years would play out this way though in FA.
FA in the last two years is part of it. But some part of it, for DK specifically, has to do with not being able to pitch like 2015 again. While the 5 year 90 million offer has turned out to be a mistake (in not taking it) from DK's viewpoint. Money wise, it worked out pretty well for the Astros bank account these past few years.
Remember last season Boras had 32 year old Jake Arrieta sign on with the Phillies in mid March for 3 years 75 million. I think DK will eventual get someone to overpay just not 5 years.