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NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Oct 30, 2012.

  1. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    makes me so happy

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    What a grotesque fail of an upload.

    Cropping isn't hard, and imgur is better.

    Scaling pictures on a forum is a first page google search. Many people here have trouble doing that so that's a pass.
     
  3. gifford1967

    gifford1967 Contributing Member
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    You're right. I'm ashamed.
     
  4. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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  5. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Not sure why this **** comes up now. Silver's been doing this model for a loooong time now and the Republicans are now just noticing and b****ing? Weird.

    Also, Silver might be the most noticed stats guy given that he has a blog at NY Times website, but many other poli-sci/stats guys are out there doing similar models (with different weights to different polls and other data, etc.) and come up with results that show Obama is a favorite based on current data.

    The issue with people b****ing about Silver is often a misunderstanding of what a probabilistic election model means. Silver is not saying that the Obama is guaranteed to win (just like a 75% FT shooter is not guaranteed to make a FT). He is also not saying that these odds won't change over time-- in fact his blog has graph shows how his odds change over time-- he is simply saying (particularly with his "Now Cast") that, based on the available poll data and considering that there are standard errors and probabilistic distribution involved in how polling data compares to actual public opinion and intention to vote, there is an X% chance that a particular candidate will end up with an electoral victory. Pretty standard stats/probability stuff.

    And the complaint about individual polls, and complaints about the very practice of polling, may or may not have validity, but the average of polls have had a good track record of getting close to the actual election results. Any or all polls might be way off and worthless, but they are kind of the best info we got and people, including the campaign themselves, pay a lot of money to have them done and rely on them to make strategic choices.
     
    #85 Carl Herrera, Oct 31, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2012
  6. Mathloom

    Mathloom Contributing Member

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    You misread. The 25% is not the "roughly equal" I was talking about.

    Popular media indicates that they have a roughly equal chance. If you skim the news, most of the time you will hear about both of them in the mid to late 40's. That's preposterous and if nothing major happens between now and then, IMO Obama will win in the same fashion he did last time around.
     
  7. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

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    lolpatmc makin sure to stay in our minds with his recent posts.
     
  8. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    Yeah, Silver is the latest and the greatest. I'm predicting he winds down his predictor model to close to 50/50 come election day or he'll be so way off that he'll go back and make excuses for his model saying the polls that went into it were off because of the "huge republican turnout" of this election that was an "anomaly". And my point is, when that happens, it proves his predictor model doesn't work for politics. Unless you are able to more accurately assume voter turnout.

    Here's the truth: If you accurately predict voter turnout...you can accurately predict who is going to win the election by looking at all the poll data that is out there and adjusting it for the proper turnout. So, the real key is predicting voter turnout. The problem with most polls is they won't actually reveal to you all the data. They know where they are sampling. They know how they are weighting the poll one way or the other. That's why internal polls are not released. Because the campaign's internal polls are actually telling them a different story. That's why the public polls are showing Minnesota as a dead win for Obama and why the Obama campaign is scrambling to get ads up there because it's actually close in Minnesota.

    Don't you see. it's close in Minnesota for goodness sake. If it's close in Minnesota, what do you think it is in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc.?
     
  9. mc mark

    mc mark Contributing Member

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    That's a hell of a caveat to your original "prediction"? LOL
     
  10. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    No it is not. I've been consistent throughout. Look at the totality of what I said. Quit being small and anal.
     
  11. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Contributing Member

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    You are an adult, right? You can see clearly, right?

    Minnesota has as much a shot at going Romney as Arizona does at going Obama.
     
  12. mc mark

    mc mark Contributing Member

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  13. tallanvor

    tallanvor Contributing Member

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    Nope. Silver has been criticized since before the 2010 election.
     
  14. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    If he's predicting Obama wins at 75% and Obama doesn't win, an excuse doesn't need to be made and it doesn't demonstrate that there's something fundamentally wrong with his model either. 3:1 aren't unbeatable odds.

    If he was saying that Obama's win was a sure thing (like you've been suggesting for Romney for some time) and he ends up being wrong, then he needs to reevaluate that position.
     
    1 person likes this.
  15. Pizza_Da_Hut

    Pizza_Da_Hut I put on pants for this?

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    Exactly. Excellent post. Stats are great, they show predictable options but things do not always follow a predictable path. With that said, I would still rather be on the side with a 75% chance to win than a 25% chance...
     
  16. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    Durvasa,

    if he has Obama at 75% and Obama loses, what it means is his predictor means nothing unless it has the right data going in. You're a data/graph expert. You should understand my point. Where his indicator is going wrong is the data going in it. It's based on skewed polls that the vast majority of are not reflecting what the proper voter turnout is. Now, if voter turnout turns out to be Democrats over Republicans by 5 or more points, than his indicator is going to reflect accurately. But if turnout is actually more even somewhere -2 to +2, then his indicator is not going to be accurate. It means his predictor is MEANINGLESS.

    You can take weighted averages of polls all day long. But weighted averages of polls that are weighted averaged to D+5 or more in an election where turnout is D-2 to D+2 isn't going to be accurate.

    Hence, my point, GIGO, garbage in, garbage out.
     
  17. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    I never said nor do I believe Minnesota is going to Romney. If Romney gets Minnesota, he's probably covering 48 states.

    What I said is it is competitive in Minnesota. That tells you something about the other states. If it is competitive in Minnesota and the Obama campaign is having to run some ads up there to tamp down the state, that is not a good sign for the other less blue states going Obama. It's not a good sign for Obama.
     
  18. Pizza_Da_Hut

    Pizza_Da_Hut I put on pants for this?

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    Why not put in basketball terms. The worst team in the league has the best chance at a number one draft pick. If said team does not get the pick does that mean the stats are wrong? Does that mean David Stern rigged the results? Does that mean the worst team doesn't indeed have the best chance at said pick? The conspiracy David Stern hater in me wants to answer all my questions sarcastically, but aside from that you get my point. Stats tell you tendencies not outcomes.

    Case in point, you flip a quarter 50 times and you get heads each time, what is the probability that it will land on heads the 51st time?
     
  19. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    Can't put in basketball lottery terms. The worst team in basketball has the greatest chance but the rest of the field (the other 13 teams), has a 3 times greater chance of winning the #1 pick. The worst team only has a 25% chance of winning.....not 75%.

    Here's the thing. You can talk chances, odds, etc. all day long. I'm predicting a shocker. I'm predicting Romney in at least a mini-landslide, 300 EVs, perhaps as few as 290 or as many as 320, but at least a mini-landslide. I believe I can see through all the hype and media spin here. I am convinced Obama is done.
     
  20. Major

    Major Member

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    As has already been explained to you, polls don't get weight averaged by party ID. Party ID is a polling output, not an input. You really are clueless on how the whole system works.
     

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