NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

If Nate winds down his prediction to 50/50 (and it's correct) there is no way Romney can win 300EV.

:grin:

 

Given the states that are essentially already decided, Obama is much closer to the required 270 electoral votes than Romney is. He's also leading in most of the swing states. I can maybe understand someone scoffing at a number like 75%, but no reasonable person should see this as a 50/50 race at this point. The odds are clearly in favor of Obama.

 

So, is that your prediction?

 

My prediction is Mr Obama will be re-elected.

 

Romney would have to win virtually every swing state for that to happen. You're right, if that were likely to happen, the odds would be heavily in favor of Romney. Obama at a 73% chance of winning gets 296 electoral votes in Nate's model, and that's with having to win less swing states than Romney would to get to 300. If Romney were likely to get 300 EV's, it would probably be at least 80/20 or 85/15 in favor of Romney.

 

when 538 projected Obama's chance at winning at below 60% after the 1st debate, the romneysians here weren't complaing

now its 75% romeneysians are crying.. has the methodology changed or has it been consistent?

 

From what I can gather, the only thing that has changed in the process is it no longer makes Obama look bad and thus must be punished.

 

You would know, you are the king of assumptions and excuses.

 

No, the point is you talk a lot of BS and I want to get you on the record with specifics which you can't come back later and spin out. I'm already on record as saying I don't know what's going to happen. Unlike you I don't have all the answers ahead of time.

 

This article could go in several of this morning's threads

A small, demented chorus of observers has recently dinged Silver for this conclusion, citing various gut feelings to the contrary.

National polls are meaningless at this stage in the election

Any way you slice it, Obama is leading in states that account for well over 270 electoral votes. As we've said a million times before, Obama needs only Ohio, Florida or Virginia to prevent Romney from reaching 270 electoral votes in most scenarios. Romney needs all three.

 

Ding ding ding. This sums up the difference between the two nicely.


If Obama gets any one of OH, FL, or VA he wins the election.

If Obama loses all three of OH, FL, or VA he can still win the election because he leads in the far majority of battleground states.

If Mitt doesn't win all three of OH, FL, or VA, he loses the election.

This is why most analysts say it's easier for Obama to win.

 

Romney has little chance, even 25% sounds generous. The mere notion that Romney has a roughly equal chance is a testament to the state of the media.

 

You and your liberally biased facts.

::shakes fist angrily in air::

 

In what world does 25% a roughly equal chance?

 

In the same world that Houston has Dwight Howard, Kojirou.

 

I hate that abbreviation for electoral votes. I keep thinking electron volts and for a split second I get confused. Damn science is rotting my brain!

 

You mean Expected Value?!?!

 

Doctor: You have a 43% chance of survival.
MojoMan: Your doctors and your pro-death agenda!

Weatherman: Tomorrow, we'll have a 60% chance of rain.
MojoMan: You meterologists are all precipitation-biased!

etc.

 

Alas, not surprisingly, your theory didn't even hold up for one day. The model has Obama up to 77% now, the highest it's been in 3 weeks.

 

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