NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

You make more assumptions than anyone I know. Never mind your polling assumptions are completely erroneous. It is amazing that you can get inside Silver's head and flesh out his desires, motivations and need for fame.

 

Whatever happened to DD? Did he change his username (I know he had at least one other username but can't remember it)? I miss his annoying posts.

 

100% chance Obama wins. If not, I'll eat my shoe (size 14) and put it on YouTube for all to see.

 

DD died in a fire.

 

Yep! MojoMan must have got the "go" signal this morning to launch his little thread.

 

It isn't a random simulation. You use random variable (Binomial Distribution) for each state and then simulate that a 1000 times and add the totals and bin them.


The math is pretty sound so I don't know you are arguing. Unless you don't believe in the poll numbers or math.

 

There you have it folks.

Another member of the "Faith over Fact" crowd.

Better known these days as the American Taliban

 

No. There is a 0% chance of acquiring him. Dwight will probably never don a Rox uni. If he does, it will be at the tail end of his career when he is half the player he is now. But there was an outstanding chance of acquiring him and DWill before Jul 1. Once July 1 passed and we didn't have him, our odds went down significantly. Once DWill signed with the Nets our odds went down again.

There was only one thing I was not cognizant of concerning the Dwight trade until after the fact. That was the fact that Fegan was holding Martens b.ls to the wall concerning Martens promise not to trade Dwight to Houston if Dwight signed away his right to opt-out last year. Fegans held Martens to his promise...even though Martens' promise was only effective for trading him at the trade deadline back in Feb. It did not apply to the offseason. Martens allowed himself to be pushed and played....to the detriment of the Magic organization. That will all come out in the future. You'll find out that Hennigan had no control over the Dwight trade except to cut the best deal that didn't involve Dwight coming to Houston.

 

And the body's still burning.

 

A good predictor makes the PROPER assumptions. Nate in his indicator is making a ton of improper assumptions concerning voter turnout.

 

Because he was a fat fat man.

 

I believe you are lying. So, I'm gonna predict Romney wins and you don't do what you said you are going to do. ; )

 

And what will it say to yours if he's right?

You must really be sweating bullets.

 

This is awful. You should be ashamed. I just bought this laptop, and I had a mouthful of water.

 

If Obama actually wins the election and Nate maintains a solid Obama bias going into election day (in other words he doesn't change his predictor model and still shows Obama with substantially more than 50% chance of winning going into election day) then I will have a totally new respect for him and will consider his prediction model very heavily in the future.

Frankly, I'll be shocked if his predictor model is still showing Obama at greater than 60% on election day. I am predicting he winds down Obama's chances to close to 50% or he may even flip and have Mitt at over 50% come election day.


I suspect he's started the wind-down today.

 

So is this a new decision of his as of today? Because the previous 3 days, the Obama % went up. It seems pretty stupid, if you're trying to get to 50-50 by election day, to go up 3 straight days before going down 1 day.

 

Looking forward to the next few days to watch the meltdown as Nate's numbers hold.

 

We will see. I am predicting he winds down to close to 50/50 on election day.

 

What is close? 55, 60? Lets get it on the record D12.

 

The point of this thread was discussing Nate and the accuracy if his predictor model. I have stated I am predicting he winds down his model to reflect a much closer election. I have stated if his model is over 60% Obama on election day, I'll be shocked. I have stated that he will wind down to close to 50/50 or may even wind down to favor Mitt over 50%. So, from all that you can deduce that I am predicting that Nate will wind down his predictor to either favor Mitt over 50% or to favor Obama less than 60%, somewhere in that range. And I'm also predicting Mitt wins the election and takes over 300 electoral votes.

Go away with your minutia and make some predictions yourself instead of getting anal about everything I am predicting. Let's get your predictions on the record. What are they?