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NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Oct 30, 2012.

  1. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The New York Time's Nate Silver, the favorite pollster of liberals across America, is doubling down on the prospects of his favorite candidate, Barack Obama. In fact, he is actually placing a number number on Obama's prospects to win, which is something that pollsters are not well qualified to do, since the polling and analysis they do only applies to the moment when those polls are conducted, and not to the future.

    In any case, Nate Silver has really put himself on the line here, and if Obama loses this race, Silver's credibility is going to fall with him.

    From the Politico:

     
  2. tallanvor

    tallanvor Contributing Member

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    Nate Silver is very dishonest

     
  3. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    Silver is transparent about his weighting methodology, that article is off base.

    But like I said in the other thread, you can do a simple random simulation of RCP state polling averages and come out with virtually the same prediction as Silver.

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Updated results of simple Monte Carlo EV sim of state polls. Obama at 73% w/ 284 EVs (538 Now-Cast is 75%, 294 EVs). <a href="http://t.co/rB6RU57W" title="http://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/263100511727796226/photo/1">twitter.com/seanmdav/statu…</a></p>&mdash; Sean Davis (@seanmdav) <a href="https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/263100511727796226" data-datetime="2012-10-30T02:10:24+00:00">October 30, 2012</a></blockquote>
    <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    The best thing about Silver's website is the visual design.
     
  4. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    You meant to say that both of the articles are off base, right?
     
  5. bucket

    bucket Member

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    75% is nowhere near a sure thing. Given all of the things that would have to break Romney's way for him to win, I'd say giving Romney a 25% chance isn't unreasonable.

    On another note, Intrade currently has Obama at a 62% chance of winning.
     
  6. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    This thread reminds me of DaDakota whining about how anybody who cites PER lacks "bball knowledge " and people saying Rudy Gay is a star because he has a good 20 foot jumper.
     
  7. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    no, one says his model could be wrong (which I agree with), the other says it's dishonest
     
  8. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    This % chance of winning thing is silly, Silver has a built-in out for either outcome.

    More relevant would be the prediction for % of votes nationally and for each state.
     
  9. False

    False Member

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    This just in, Nate Silver predicts that Romney has a 65% chance of winning. The Corner and Newsmax praise him as one of America's foremost thinkers and scholars. Mojoman rejoices, repents, and throws rose petals on the very ground which Mr. Silver might tread upon. And somewhere in America a bald eagle sheds a tear on the text of the Constitution.
     
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  10. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Just like clock work... A week ago it was predicted the GOP minions would begin attacking Nate Silver and it has started over the last few days... So predictable and transparent. Anything for faux Romney momentum... This is tied in with the "Obama is scared, not acting presidential" nonsense spouted.
     
  11. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    This is my favorite bit of Bayesian Denialism:

     
  12. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    75%. So he's saying its not a sure thing. Why is this a big deal?
     
  13. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The local Knrugmanites line up to defend their champion, Nate Silver....
     
  14. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    To say a certain poll is right leaning when there is a D+8 advantage in people being polled is dishonest, especially when you weight it lower than another poll that is older and has a smaller sample size.
     
  15. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    He also hasn't yet taken into account a smaller turnout then last election.

    I am not attacking him as a person or trying to discredit him but I am calling it how it looks. The Repugs aren't the only ones who play the game called politics.
     
  16. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    GIGO - garbage in, garbage out

    1. Most of the polls are weighted to D+6 to D+13. That is simply not going to happen. So, GIGO.

    2. Nate is overvaluing older polls that are on the higher end of the D+6 to D+10.


    Don't be surprised if Nate starts flipping the numbers downward for Barack and upward for Mitt into election day. If he drops around 3% per day, then they will basically be at 50/50 come election day. And that's the best he can do. No one know his formula because his formula is simply this.....use the formula until he knows he is wrong and then adjust his data by hand so that he's not on the line. If he's at 50/50 on election day, then his reputation stays intact. He'll call it a toss-up on election day. Or he'll actually tell us what we already know, Mitt is going to win by several horselengths.

    I'll be very surprised if Nate is not at 50/50 or tilted to Mitt by election day. He won't put himself on the line and be showing Barack at 75% on election day. He won't. Gotta keep his job. And what that will show is the uselessness of his predictive model for political purposes. 7 days out and he's got Obama at 75%, then the last 7 days Obama sinks like a rock to 50% and loses? That's not going to work for Nate. What good is a predictor when it is off so bad one week away from the event? If Nate trails the race down to 50/50 on election day, then I can claim my predictor (flipping a coin) was more accurate than his predictor weeks before the election. Or the last 7 days out and Nate doesn't adjust his predictor and Obama gets trounced while Nate has him above 70% to win. Won't work either. Nate loses totally credibility there.

    GIGO-Garbage in, Garbage out. When you are predicting based on polls that will not reflect anything close to the truth on voter turnout, you are going to get garbage out of your predictive model.

    The race is already over. Barack is done. He's gonna get wiped out on election day. Mitt will have over 300 electoral college votes and most of the liberal media will act shocked and surprised at how lopsided it was and want to talk about the "anomaly" of how many Republican voters turned out, making statement about how surprised they were that the Republicans came out in force. Like we didn't know it was going to happen all along.

    Barack is done. He's been done for a while now.

    Now....that is what you call predicting what is going to happen. No silly little percentages, etc. You read through the tea leaves, through all the spin, through all the false data...and you see the truth.
     
    #16 jopatmc, Oct 30, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2012
  17. Major

    Major Member

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    Uhh, since he's had Obama at about 75% for the past 6 months, how exactly is he doubling down? :confused:

    Silver's not a pollster - he's an analyst. He takes polls and he looks at historical data to see how polls at a given moment translate into results on election day. And then he gives a range out of outcomes based on those results. It's exactly what he's qualified to do, and it's done all the time in all sorts of fields. Nothing he does is groundbreaking - he just does it very well and accounts for more variables than silly things like RCP averages do.

    It looks like the whole GOP is simply now anti-math, anti-science, and anti-statistics whenever reality disagrees with their fantasy world.
     
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  18. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    But Nate Silver isn't a Democratic pollster.

    Or are you saying that Democrats quoting Silver are the ones playing politics? I'm confused.
     
  19. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Nate Silver is a political prognosticator, pardon me.
     
  20. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member

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    No that is what is called "blind faith".

    I personally give Romney a good chance of winning. I think Obama will win it narrowly but won't be surprised if Romney does win. Still there is no solid evidence that this will be a landslide for Romney especially in the Electoral College, barring something major like Sandy wiping out voting in Dem strongholds, the math doesn't work for a Romney landslide.
     
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