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Nuclear North Korea - missile capable of hitting Wa

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Amiga, Jan 19, 2017.

  1. calurker

    calurker Contributing Member

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  2. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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  3. omgTHEpotential

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    South Korea has a top10 economy in the whole world. Just imagine how much of a powerhouse Korea (South and North united) could have been. Such a shame.
     
  4. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Oh my god, the potential. Seriously.
     
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  5. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    In the short term it would be a drag on their economy just like the re-unification of Germany. North Koreans wouldn't provide anything other than cheap labor.
     
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  6. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/world/asia/north-korea-missile.html?mcubz=0

    Only twice before has the North fired projectiles over Japanese territory: once in 1998, prompting a minor diplomatic crisis in Asia, and once again at the beginning of the Obama administration in 2009. In both those cases, the North said the rockets were carrying satellites into orbit. In this case, it made no such claim.
     
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  7. omgTHEpotential

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    No you misunderstood me. I meant they could have been a powerhouse if the United States and the Soviet Union didn't **** it all up.
     
  8. Buck Turgidson

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    I don't recall any bloodshed when the Aggies left for the SEC.
     
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  9. Buck Turgidson

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    Probably not the best point to bring up in a thread about North Korea, since there was that whole Korean War thing.
     
  10. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I remember UH trying to get into the Southwest Conference. It took years. The claim from the SWC universities was that UH wasn't "worthy," but the reality was that they were afraid of UH's athletic programs.

    Finally, the Coogs were granted membership in '72, I think, but UH football and basketball, nationally ranked, were kept out another 4 years. The Coogs promptly won the conference championship in football in their first season, and won in basketball not long after.

    Keeping UH out of the SWC bugged the hell out of me at the time. The bloody cowards! Afraid of the Coogs and for good reason! It was a turgid time.
     
  11. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    You can't hug your children with nuclear arms.
     
  12. BigDog63

    BigDog63 Member

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    Far too little reality entering into the picture with N. Korea. We don't want them to have 'nukes'. Well, that's too bad, because they likely already do, and even if not there really isn't anything we can do to stop them (short of a full scale war, which we aren't going to initiate). Much as with Iran, what needs to happen is to figure out how to deal with them when they become nuclear. Wishing that wouldn't happen is just that...wishing. That horse left the barn, rode into the hills, had children and grandchildren, and died of old age some time ago. I'm not enthralled with N. Korea having nukes, but lots of stuff happens we don't like.

    We need to stop trying to prevent the inevitable, and do more about dealing with it when it happens (because it may already have happened, and certainly will in the near future if not).
     
  13. hlcc

    hlcc Member

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    That's a possibility, but it can also turn out much worse as well. Of South Korea's 70ish year history, almost 40 of them were under some kind of dictatorship (mainly military dictatorships). The Koreans are fortunate that some of those dictators were quite competent. I'd imagine a unified Korea would have a very different pool of possible leaders. If they ended up with a couple more Syngman Rhee like leaders, I don't think it's hard to imagine Korea ending up with the Philippine's level of development.
     
  14. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    Thought this article was pretty thorough and fascinating. Long read, of course, because it's the New Yorker.
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/09/18/the-risk-of-nuclear-war-with-north-korea

    Makes a note that, unlike his grandpa and his pa, Un probably has never been told "no" in his entire life... reminds us of an American we know very well. Author suggests Kim Jong Il had a better sense of how to play the line in the sand game without going too far.

    You get the sense the reporter has a bad, bad feeling about this situation. (Not for nuclear war, necessarily, but some ugly **** going down at some point.)
     
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  15. TheresTheDagger

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    North Korea today with nukes is concerning. North Korea in 10-15-20 years = Cold War 2 at best. While a war with NK now seems like a horrible thing (and it would be), it would be difficult for them to really hurt the United States today because their missile tech is still in its infancy.

    What happens in 10-15-20 years when they figure out the Hydrogen bomb and how to miniaturize it into a Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle? What if those MIRV's can hold 5 warheads and he has 30 missiles that can accurately target every large city in the United States?

    It's getting close to now or never time. The longer we wait, the greater the chance this maniac holds the power of life or death over every citizen of this nation. Do we REALLY want to live this future? Can we survive this future?
     
  16. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Contributing Member

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    Aren't they sitting on a lot of expensive mineral deposits that they aren't taking advantage of?
    https://qz.com/1004330/north-korea-...-wealth-and-its-neighbors-want-a-piece-of-it/

     
  17. BigDog63

    BigDog63 Member

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    We already ARE in that future, that's the point, or at least we will be very shortly. Again, lots of what ifs here, and I wish that wouldn't happens...but how can we actually prevent it from happening? I don't see a way. N.K. will either get, or make, whatever it needs, and will continue working towards that, and they will have these weapons.

    Are you suggesting we take them out now (ie, initiate full scale war against them)? That would do it, but short of that, I don't think anything will. Such a war would be large scale to begin with, and would almost inevitably result in the destruction of Seoul, with millions of casualties, and could extend beyond that. Are we sure China wouldn't intervene on behalf of N.K....in which case we have WWIII? Are we willing to do that? I don't think so. Do they already possess the technology, as they say they do? In which case, they might start flinging missiles at Japan, or at us, or Seoul, although they can destroy it with conventional artillary already.

    This is the power of having nuclear weapons, or even claiming you do. It narrows down the options countries have against you. Having one of the world's largest militaries does the same, particularly so close to a major city.

    Also, their latest test is believed to have been a hydrogen bomb, so we're already past that point, too.

    The time to have dealt with this was 10-15-20 years ago, and we failed to do so.


    Yes, he certainly acts that way. Which is why we need to talk less (any reaction of ours is a win for him), and do more, if we are going to do anything. But given the above, we would need to be careful with lines in the sand, or provocations towards him, as we don't know where his line might be, if anywhere. As with a stubborn child, you have to be careful you don't escalate something to the point where you back down, not him, and he gets even further emboldened.

    Very possible. We seem to have really bad choices, and worse ones. China's relationship with N. Korea, and their border (creating China's concern about millions of refugees flooding into their country) really limit the options.

    if there really are any actual options at this point, anyway. Can someone tell me how we could actually stop them from developing functional nukes? Again, I think outright invasion would do it, but I don't think we'll do that, and I don't see anything less as an actual option to achieve that goal.
     
    #337 BigDog63, Sep 18, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2017
  18. TheresTheDagger

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    You're right we should have dealt with this 10-20 years ago. Now we are faced with tough choices today. It's Chamberlain '38 all over again.

    I will note however there are two major differences today (or in 10+ years from now) than 20 years ago.

    #1 The ability to deliver the nukes in such a way that he can really threaten the United States. That is the massively destabilizing thing I don't think you are considering with enough emphasis. North Korea has had a large military, proximity to Seoul, proximity to Japan, devastating artillery power, etc for a very long time. Missiles capable of intercontinental attack (i.e. reaching the United States) are new. They will only get more accurate and more sophisticated the longer we wait.

    #2 The change in NK regime leadership. This guy is bat **** crazy compared to his father, grandfather.

    Keep in mind this is not an advocation of war. I AM saying this problem is only worsening and if we continue status quo, we will face Cold War 2 in very short order. Everyone needs to understand the stakes here. It's not just another tin pot dictator gnashing his teeth and shaking his fist. This is much worse.

    I agree with your assessment there is no good solution. Everyone does. But does inaction today lead us to have to consider even worse alternatives in the future? That is what we must factor in to our decision making today.
     
  19. BigDog63

    BigDog63 Member

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    it's not a matter of no good solutions, I don't see any solution short of invasion, which I don't think we'll do.

    Does this force us to deal with worse alternatives in the future? Maybe, but that's why I think we maybe need to pivot and think about how to best create a better relationship now. Which might also be the best way to prevent that future in the first place. And I think we are already in that future, or far closer to it than we think.

    I do agree with your 2 main concerns. I just don't know what we could actually do about them.
     
  20. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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    Thx for posting. That was a great read.

    What struck me again is how important communications and some type of relationship are. Would have done wonder in the past and can be very helpful going forward. It's amazing to think about how much risks (maybe completely unnecessary) both sides are at now for simply acting macho over the years, refusing to talk directly to each other, so they have to guess, and guess they have. Possibly doing a very poor job at it.

    There were reports of trying to open backdoor communication. I wonder if there is any truth to that. Hopefully there is and it does happen.
     

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