1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

North Carolina congressional special election

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by NewRoxFan, Aug 28, 2019.

  1. biff17

    biff17 Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2018
    Messages:
    2,901
    Likes Received:
    1,378
    Trumps margin for victory was and is razor thin.

    No Democratic is gonna be in the negative as Hillary was and both sides are entrenched there is a small amount of persuadable voters and even less that will be persuaded to vote for Trump IMO.

    I don't think negative ads against democrats will persuades great number of voters just like they did not against Trump.

    The enthusiasm of the voting populace is to remove Trump from office I don't see that changing any time soon.T

    I also think Trump fatigue is a real thing and will have a huge affect on his vote.
     
    B-Bob likes this.
  2. biff17

    biff17 Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2018
    Messages:
    2,901
    Likes Received:
    1,378
    That R in now way means anything in the House but the election definitely shows that Trump is losing support in NC and it will very much be in play for 20/20.

    The R barely one a seat that the party usually wins in double digits and most of it is rural.

    May not be a moral victory but it is something.
     
  3. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost clean your room bucko
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2003
    Messages:
    40,858
    Likes Received:
    5,251
  4. biff17

    biff17 Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2018
    Messages:
    2,901
    Likes Received:
    1,378
    Wow.

    They have no shame.
     
    RayRay10 likes this.
  5. biff17

    biff17 Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2018
    Messages:
    2,901
    Likes Received:
    1,378
    Five Takeaways from Republicans' Narrow NC-09 Escape | The Cook Political Report


    Republicans narrowly averted disaster as GOP state Sen. Dan Bishop eked out a 51 percent to 49 percent win over Democrat Dan McCready in North Carolina's 9th CD, where an absentee ballot fraud scandal last fall required a new election. But Tuesday's results were nothing to brag about: Bishop and Republican groups spent over $6 million to barely hang onto a district President Trump had carried by 12 points.

    Bishop's win, along with GOP state Rep. Greg Murphy's expected win in North Carolina's 3rd CD, brings the House count to 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans and one Independent — Rep. Justin Amash in Michigan's 3rd CD. That means Republicans will need to gain 19 seats to win the House back next fall — a task made more difficult by GOP retirements that have enhanced Democratic pickup opportunities, especially in Texas.

    Here are five quick lessons from Republicans' narrow escape in North Carolina's 9th CD, which moves to the Likely Republican column for 2020:

    1. The results are bad news for Trump. Despite the president's Twitter victory lap, Tuesday's photo finish illustrates that the political environment hasn't gotten much better for Republicans since the 2018 midterms. Bishop lost the Charlotte suburbs Trump had carried in 2016, even though Bishop hails from those very suburbs and carried them on his way to reelection to the state senate as recently as last fall.

    If Trump were to replicate Bishop's performance all over the state next November, he'd clearly lose North Carolina — a state critical to his reelection path. It's also clear that to match his 2016 success, Trump will need a Democratic opponent he can demonize much more effectively than McCready, a moderate Marine Corps veteran who downplayed social issues like abortion and emphasized high prescription drug costs.

    2. The results are good news for Democrats' House majority. Although a loss would have been disastrous for GOP morale, Bishop's win won't do anything to persuade House Republicans — many of whom are on the fence about running again in 2020 — that they're in position to take back control next year. According to the Cook Report's Partisan Voter Index, there are 35 GOP-held seats less Republican than NC-09.

    3. Trump's popularity with his base hasn't proven transferable.Trump held an election eve rally for Bishop in Fayetteville, but Bishop still underperformed Trump's margin in the district by ten points — a sign that, just as in 2018, many Trump voters aren't jazzed about showing up for down-ballot GOP politicians when Trump's not on the ballot. The silver lining for red-seat Republicans: Trump will be back on the ballot next fall.

    4. The key to Bishop's victory may have been a local Native American tribe. One of the most economically distressed places in North Carolina is Robeson County, home to the Lumbee Tribe and a sixth of NC-09's population. By party registration, Democrats outnumber Republicans by a massive 60 percent to 13 percent. But in 2016, Trump's appeal to "forgotten" America helped him carry the county by four points.

    In 2018, Robeson County reverted to form, voting for McCready by a healthy 15 points. According to one local source, McCready benefited from a Lumbee Democrat running for state House on the same ballot last fall. But on Tuesday, McCready won Robeson County by just one point, potentially costing him victory. An analysis by J. Miles Coleman showed the biggest swing occurred in heavily Lumbee precincts.

    So how did Bishop, whose state Charlotte area senate district is nowhere near Robeson County, do so well there? It turns out that in March, when Bishop was just launching his bid for the do-over congressional election, he sponsored a bill to open more grant opportunities for the Lumbees by clarifying state recognition of the tribe. Bishop's picture appeared in the Robesonian, and it likely paid off on Tuesday.

    5. It's hard to lose money betting on a widening metro vs. rural divide. McCready exceeded his 2018 showing in the Charlotte suburbs of Mecklenburg County, stretching his margin from nine to 12 points. And he matched his 2018 showing in Union County, which contains Charlotte's more conservative exurbs. But in the six more rural counties, McCready underperformed last fall's showing significantly.

    This widening gap is the same pattern we've observed in virtually every House special election held in the past five years. And, it suggests that 2020 is likely to continue that trend: to beat Trump, Democrats will need to nominate a candidate who can capitalize on the president's increasingly toxic standing in prosperous suburbs without losing too many small town and rural voters, like those in Robeson County.


    Image Credit: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
     
  6. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2003
    Messages:
    11,817
    Likes Received:
    1,472
    I have the misfortune of living in this state. I’d caution against reading into this too much.

    Dan Bishop was the mastermind behind NC’s absurd and shameful ‘bathroom bill’ that cost the state $400M in jobs and lost economy. Not to mention, cost the GOP the governorship. Yet he still somehow won this special election.

    The bigger headline out of this political toilet of a state for today is the NC GOP, in something you feel like you would read on The Onion, deciding to vote to override the budget veto after declaring no voting would take place today while NC Dems were attending 9/11 memorial services.

    Yes, this really happened....

    I can’t wait to get the hell out of this state.
     
    NewRoxFan, B-Bob and FranchiseBlade like this.
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now