Some friends and I were debating this over texts today. I have no clue about how long collective outrage lasts in this day, but it seems like the Republicans have the momentum after all this SCOTUS stuff. Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were "very important." Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie. Democrats' advantage on which party's candidate they are more likely to support has also been cut in half since last month. Democrats still retain a 6-point edge on that question, but it was 12 points after a Marist poll conducted in mid-September. The results come amid the pitched and hotly partisan confirmation battle over Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court. Multiple women have accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct when he was in high school and college. He categorically denies all the allegations. The FBI is conducting a supplemental investigation into the accusations that is expected to be wrapped up by the end of this week. With Democrats already fired up for this election, the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base. "The result of hearings, at least in the short run, is the Republican base was awakened," noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. While Democrats and Republicans are now equally enthusiastic about the midterms, the story is very different for key Democratic base groups and independents. While 82 percent of Democrats say the midterms are very important, that's true of just 60 percent of people under 30, 61 percent of Latinos and 65 percent of independents. Democrats need to net 23 seats to take back control of the House, but if those groups stay home in large numbers, it would blunt potential Democratic gains. With 34 days to go until Election Day, it all points to another election dominated by party activists. "If there aren't 34 dramatic moments [between now and then], it will be 'my base versus your base,' " Miringoff said. He noted that the Republican move to push Kavanaugh's confirmation forward, despite his unpopularity and that more people believe accuser Christine Blasey Ford than Kavanaugh, appears to be intended to fire up the GOP base in hopes of retaining control of Congress. "The Republicans' approach has been, and continues to be, all about the base," Miringoff said. "This is their M.O., and that's what we're seeing. That works if turnout is not high."
Yes the democrats are defeated and will be crushed by the Elephant in Nov. Republicans have total victory - and the polls are showing that the Kava confirmation process and the horrible way these liberal women have acted will make Americans forget about Trump and remember why they hate liberals. All is good in the GOP world. Nothing to worry about. Nothing at all.
This is basically true of every election though? I feel like this article is just stating what many people know about these elections. There's just more Democrats in the country, or rather say, liberals... if they turn up and decide to vote, they win elections. If they don't, the dedicated and passionate right-wing base will win elections. So this isn't really new. I think the Democrats just have to get their people out to vote. This is why the GOP tries so hard to get fewer people to vote, they know it helps them if fewer people turn out to vote, the more people that turn out to vote the worse it is for them in general...so that record number of people registering to vote is probably not good news for the GOP. We'll see though.
If this is so, shouldn't Republicans prefer a delay in confirmation to keep Republican voters enthused? Once Kavanaugh is seated, won't Republican voters feel content that the battle is won and their vote isn't as necessary as it otherwise would have been? And, on the Democrat side, won't they be mad as hell and feel like the only way to stop things like Kavanaugh confirmations from happening is to flip Congress so they definitely need to get out and vote?
...interesting. One of the major political goals of the Republican party for the past few years has been to create a conservative majority on the High Court. There are already republican majorities at state and federal levels of lawmaking, so to ensure at least the possibility of a republican majority in political discourse (in spite of the metric of burgeoning numbers of potentially liberal or democratic voters), securing a conservative majority on the Supreme Court would create the pipeline of governance that most conservatives would prefer—conservative lawmakers constructing and implementing, and conservative judges interpreting and preserving, those conservative laws. And because we are a nation of laws...once laws get put on the books, they are often very difficult to remove, or even effectively circumvent. But majorities for either political party can ensure certain desired outcomes based on those legislative and judicial compositions. The numbers are the numbers, ultimately...but as we've seen with certain voting tactics for instance, those numbers can be stymied (at least for the forseeable future—which, for me, would be every four years or so)... ...so without substantial changes in state and local legislatures nationwide, there's a pretty good chance that we'll be running from political fire to political fire for a while...
The latest polls show that McSally and Heller in Arizona and Nevada have all but eliminated the leads that their DNC competition had over them and at the same time Blackburn and Cramer in Tennessee and North Dakota continue to increase their leads. If those trends continue, not only will the Republicans hold on to the Senate, but they could add a few extra seats to their majority.
With new polls coming out, the Texas senate race is all but over with Cruz now up 7 points in the RCP average, North Dakota is pretty much over with Cramer up 8.7 points, Tennessee is pulling away for Blackburn with her up 5.5 points in the RCP average.....meanwhile Heller has rallied in Nevada bringing that race to a tie and McSally has rallied in Arizona from down 4 points to now being within half a point. What this means is that the Republicans are almost certain to hold on to the Senate and it's actually more likely that they gain seats in the midterms than lose control.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...4daa3d35ede_story.html?utm_term=.ee81308e03c6 More Americans disapprove of Kavanaugh’s confirmation than support it, new poll shows By Robert Barnes and Emily Guskin October 12 More Americans disapprove of Brett M. Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court than approve, and a narrow majority says congressional investigation of the new justice should not end with his elevation to the court, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. The Senate’s 50-to-48 vote last week to approve the 53-year-old Kavanaugh’s lifetime appointment was the closest on a Supreme Court justice since the 1880s, and the poll shows the public’s reaction was almost as divided. It also suggests the tumultuous battle over his nomination could harm the court’s reputation as the nonpartisan branch of government. The survey, conducted during Kavanaugh’s first week on the bench, shows that 43 percent of Americans believe the court’s rulings will be more politically motivated with President Trump’s second nominee on the court, compared with 10 percent who said they will be less political. To 39 percent of the public, Kavanaugh’s presence will make no difference in the degree of partisanship. Asked how the Kavanaugh debate would affect their midterm vote, slightly more say it makes them more inclined to support Democrats for Congress than Republicans. Women say the episode draws them toward Democrats over Republicans by a 16-point margin, while men are more evenly split. While many of the results in the poll fall along familiar partisan lines, it also found that political independents are more suspicious than supportive of the new justice. According to the survey, 55 percent of independents say there should be further investigation of Kavanaugh, while 40 percent are opposed. telling the San Francisco Chronicle that voters care less about targeting a sitting Supreme Court justice for removal and more “about how we are going to make their lives better.” The Post-ABC poll finds 53 percent of Americans support further investigation of Kavanaugh by Congress, while 43 percent are opposed. That margin narrows among registered voters, with 50 percent in support of further investigation and 45 percent opposed. The split over further investigation closely mirrors Americans’ overall support for the Senate’s decision to confirm him. By 51 percent to 41 percent, more adults disapprove than approve of Kavanaugh’s Senate confirmation. White evangelical Protestant voters are among the groups most likely to support Republican candidates after the debate over confirmation, with 64 percent saying they are more likely to support Republicans. A 41 percent plurality of white Catholics say it does not make a difference, while 36 percent say they are now more likely to support Republicans and 23 percent more likely to support Democrats. More than 8 in 10 Republicans approve of the confirmation overall, while a similar percentage of Democrats disapprove. There are significant gender differences, with men narrowly approving of Kavanaugh’s confirmation (48 percent approve, 43 percent disapprove), while women disapprove of Kavanaugh’s confirmation by a 23-point margin (58 percent to 35 percent). The Post-ABC poll was conducted by telephone Monday through Thursday among a random national sample of 1,144 adults, including 991 registered voters. The margin of sampling error for the results overall and the sample of registered voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Error margins are larger among subgroups. Mike DeBonis contributed to this report
Breaking the South off into a separate country would resolve things like this, right? A happy marriage.
So, it's looking like the Republicans will gain 2 senate seats now, the Democrats are on pace to narrowly take the house.....but if things keep trending the way they are even that could be in jeopardy. Some say that the Kavanaugh appointment wasn't popular, but why has it caused such a surge in support for Republican candidates and support for Democrat candidates to fall off if that is true?
I think Kavanaugh was unpopular but two things at play: 1) Republican intensity/enthusiasm has rallied. Instead of a ho-hum SC nomination like Gorsuch they got a fight. 2) In general there was a LOT to dislike about how everything went down with Kavanaugh and it angers people. They may not support HIM but they also don't support the "accusation=guilty" mindset. There is definitely backlash against that.
Senate was always a dream for Democrats but it could end up worse than they hoped for. Shame that Marsha Blackburn will get to be a United States Senator though.
That's fair. The "believe all women regardless of evidence" nonsense really did turn a lot of people off.
