I think McHugh deserves a chance for more high leverage appearances. I trust him more than half the pen.
Because he hasn't failed? Or because you think he truly has back of the bullpen "stuff"? Sure, we'll never know till he's in there (if he ever gets there)... I just think that if teams/hitters really want to get a book on McHugh, and bear down with every intent to exploit his weakness', it won't be that hard to do. His stuff has a ceiling. Then again, Peacock was thought of much the same way... but McHugh's new slider isn't of the same ferocity as what Peacock's was doing when he busted it out last year. Will be interesting to see how his arm can handle increased appearances.
In what way was Peacock's slider containing more ferocity? McHugh's slider is slightly faster. It generally has the same shape except McHugh's moves more horizontally and vertically. McHugh is getting more value out of it on a per pitch basis. McHugh gets more grounders, more weak contact, and more called strikes. Only thing Peacock was getting is more whiffs, but that is because Peacock was using it as a chase pitch. If McHugh threw his slider as a chase pitch (i.e. starting it over plate and it moving off instead of starting off plate and moving it over the plate for called strikes), his whiffs would go up as well. Edit: This is the big question on McHugh. He's been fantastic in low leverage situations with lots of rest. It is not illogical to give someone performing great tougher tasks. He shouldn't be stealing work from Devenski, but he shouldn't be fighting Sipp for grunt work either.
In terms of it being a completely new pitch that virtually kept him in baseball, and from being DFA'd Sample size and leverage. Peacock's slider was quite ferocious in the playoffs... McHugh's slider was mediocre last year, and has potential this year... but again, hasn't been seen in enough high leverage situations. My main point is that we pretty much know what McHugh's ceiling is as a starter at this point. Not bad, not great, in the middle. I have doubts whether he's got an extra level to be an even better reliever.
McHugh being a better pitcher without the slider should not be used against him. It is a plus that he can be a good starter without it. Pitch movement stabilizes quickly. K rate, GB% stabilize quickly. Sample size isn't the issue. Leverage is an issue. I would question more can he throw it and his other pitches more frequently on less rest. My memory must be whack. Peacock's slider abandoned him in the playoffs to my recollection. Peacock got knocked around a bit until he started riding his fastball more. Peacock's fastball also had more movement in the lower slot. I see no reason for him to be a starter while the 5 big guns are healthy. All great relievers were given a chance. McHugh's done more than most to earn that chance. He shouldn't be the closer, but he's not being blocked from some 7th inning work or 6th inning if a starter has a high early pitch count. He does well, he gets more leverage.
He was actually regressing quite a bit which is what necessitated him to develop the slider last year. Again, we haven't seen if it will actually make him a more effective starter since he's not a starter right now. We don't know if hitters will pick up on it more with repeated viewings, etc. On the flip-side, Peacock was an effective starter last year...moreso than McHugh was. It must be. He was mixing it up very well when he closed out game 3 against the Dodgers with 3 innings. The Astros are paying him good money for a reason... yes, he would be expected to fill-in if needed. But for now, he's truly in limbo on this team (but doesn't really have enough trade value to make sense to move him).
6 sliders, 47 fastballs according to pitch logs. I think we can agree that: -you think McHugh will never be a high leverage reliever, it will take him doing it to prove it to you, and that giving him a chance in tougher situations is not warranted; -I think he will be a good, not great high leverage reliever, that he has proven he deserves a chance at it, and it is worth knowing now than when pitchers start getting hurt even if he isn't successful.
Why wouldn't you let McHugh bump up in the bullpen pecking order and see how he responds? Any reasons?
I was talking about the slider. McHugh uses the curve and high 4S fastballs for punch outs. When I've seen McHugh pitch, he was using the slider to get back into counts or to get ahead by throwing it into the zone. Previously, his cutter was what he used to get ahead or to get back into counts.
People need to read and listen to this. McHugh is not the same pitcher in the pen as he was as a starter.
I'm not convinced, as you are, that he's a drastically better pitcher out of the pen than he was as a starter. I also thought his starter regression was quite real and basically gets glossed over around here (people still think he's the guy who struck out 12 in his debut in 2014). I think he's been very well protected this year in the frequency of how he's been used, and what was at stake when he was used. Ultimately, if he remains on this track, he will get that shot... I just tend to cringe at the logic that often has fans clamoring for backups that usually are exactly who they are (which in this case, may still be better than Devenski/Giles... or may not be).
I know you've seen him. His stuff is playing up in the pen. So far, somewhat. I see no reason to not let him try some 7th-inninginsh close innings and see what happens...since their whole bullpen is in a "**** it, let's see what happens" situation at the moment. If it fails, so be it.
McHugh > Smith, Rondon, Sipp... so why not? Even if his ceiling is Will Harris... that's still pretty good.
Or heck go with a 6-man rotation to save Keuchel, McCullers, and Morton from getting burned out early and skip the 6th starter when there's an off day. ...but in all honesty, if Dan Wheeler was a functional setup man for a contender, why can't Collin McHugh?
Ad hominem again. McHugh is not some usual backup that never sees the field. He's got years starting and would be starting on about 28 teams. High leverage relievers for the most part are failed starters. McHugh succeeded at starting. He's absolutely dominating as a low leverage reliever and he's still facing MLB hitters. There are more high leverage innings than Devenski and Giles can pitch. Cringing about someone wanting a guy dominating to get more work than being the 7th guy in the pen is silly. We're not talking about him replacing someone (if someone else falters, that's a different issue). We're talking about mixing him in. PS: I'm fully expecting McHugh to be used in high leverage in the next couple of days and to absolutely tank it.
I am not suggesting that McHugh will be the next Eckersley or Smoltz... but some really good starters have slid into a bullpen role with some dominance.
