The only question mark with Doncic is whether he'll be able to get to that highest level (top10 player). I have no doubt that he'll win the Rookie of the Year, because he's the most NBA ready player in the draft with the highest floor. He should have a better rookie year than Jayson Tatum.
You think he can be a 7 win player in year 1? I'm not saying its impossible, but not even LeBron was worth 7 wins his rookie year. He will also be 20 when he enters the league, here is the list of best rookie seasons by a player that young, 7+ wins would put him alongside the likes of CP3, Dwight Howard, Shaq, and Magic Johnson. https://www.basketball-reference.co...os_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&order_by=ws
It's not "wins" it's "win shares", which is literally scaled to how many games your team wins. Doncic will not get 7+ win shares because the Kings (or whoever drafts him) will be terrible. Tatum had the luxury of being on a great team his rookie year which is why his win shares are high.
Yeah pretty much this. Doncic won't be on a good team, but I think he'll post similar if not better stats than Tatum. He's just a very NBA ready rookie who was already tested out in high pressure situations. It's a shame really that he won't get to show what he can do in the playoffs for a while, I have a feeling that's where he will really shine.
Chris Paul's Hornets, Karl-Anthony Towns' Timberwolves, and Elton Brand's Bulls were awful in their respective rookie years, yet both produced 7.5+ Win Shares. Players on mediocre teams can be very high up in that statistic, Kevin Garnett once lead the league in that stat while failing to make the playoffs. Its just that teams with players who produce a lot of win shares tend to actually win games. Shout out to Elton brand for producing 7 of his team's' 17 wins, it must suck to have such a great rookie season contributions manifest themselves into simply turning "all-time bad" into "abysmal"
James Harden had a 15.4 win share to lead the league this year. Karl Anthony Towns was at 14. Does anyone think Harden was only "worth" 1.4 more wins THIS YEAR than Harden?? Of course not. It's at best a "strange" stat. I encourage the idea of figuring out how good a player truly is based on how much they contribute to a winning style of basketball... but win-shares isn't it. Of the top of my head I never would have been even able to tell you the general range of what the league lead in that category would be, or what a good/bad rookie would have, etc.
Towns is an incredibly efficient offensive player, he was second in points per shot attempt only to Harden this year. Also Towns played all 82 games while Harden played 70-ish, if Harden played 82 he probably would have been worth 17+ wins.
The best player in the draft. Not even close. Ainge, Pops, and other bvall brains know it. Will drag whichever lottery team he's on into the playoff chase if he stays healthy. They may not make it into the playoffs but they'll be close. Oh, and btw, PHX does want Doncic to go with Booker and Ayton and they're willing tidy trade a pile of assets to move up and get him. They'll gladly give up 16, 31, future picks....and maybe even Josh Jackson to move up for him. And that just may be enough to get Sacramento to move down. Especially....especially if Phoenix could make a trade to get another pick or two.................. Need to watch Phoenix on draft night. They're trying to form a young super team nucleus. Of course they're thinking Ayton is a future superstar. And that could be a severe flaw. In my opinion it is. I see a lot of Drummond in Ayton. But nevertheless don't be surprised if Phoenix makes a granddaddy offer for Doncic on draft night. And Doncic id's in on it too. He's pulling a #draftkobe here trying to manipulate and control his draft destination. Best player in the draft. Not even close. Doncic is a superstar.
That's actually interesting...i can see the Suns trying to get both Ayton and Doncic, they should be able to make it happen with the Kings if they're willing to move most of their picks and maybe Jackson. They've also one unprotected 1st from Miami (i think 2020 or 2021) which should have good value. Just saw in another thread that ESPN mentioned some trades they would like to see in the draft and one of those is basically Booker for the 2nd pick...
What’s your top 10 big board @basketballholic ? I’ve moved on from Ayton and have doncic #1 now. My board is 1. Doncic 2. Bamba 3. Ayton 4. Jaren Jackson 5. Bagley 6. Young 7. Porter 8. Knox 9. Mikal 10. SGA I really thnk doncic is the safest pick. Probably not he highest ceiling but the highest floor. I think his ceiling is underrated tho. He CAN be a top player in this league even with his “athleticism limits”. Interesting that you see them trying to pair both somehow. If he drops to 4, I think Memphis may be tempted to trade #4/Parsons for Jackson/Tyson/16/31/future2nd
I agree, definitely the highest floor and the lowest percentage to become a complete bust. And even his ceiling... It's barely limited. He can't become a top20 player of all-time like a Jordan/LeBron/Hakeem/Duncan etc. But he can still get to that superstar level (like Harden for example) if he reaches his full potential.
Harden is like the ultimate comparison right? Neither are blow you out the water athletes. Neither have freakish measurables. Both are crafty. Both are limited defensively, especially laterally. Both enjoy the nightlife. Both execute a step up for space. Both are good passers. Both have high basketball IQ. Both have decent side/length for their position. Both are very good operating out of the PnR. Both are very good at drawing fouls.
Yeah, pretty much. Although I'd argue that Harden is an underrated athlete. He's also got a mammoth wingspan!
Yes! Now...... do I get a cookie? I could see him falling just shy of a Hardenesque type career, but anything close would be a win for any of these top 5 losing teams.
Yeah harden has much better wingspan, but doncic has a bit more size. Harden has great changes of speed and sudden burst. He has great burst in small spurts. Combined with his all time stopping ability and it’s why he’s “sneaky” athletic. Curious to s e how doncic adapts and improves his game.