Looking for ESPN Insider articles

jogo · Jun 21, 2017

Does anyone have access to these articles?

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...spects-2016-nba-draft-statistical-projections

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ning-kevin-pelton-nba-draft-projection-system

http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider...kevin-pelton-grade-mock-draft-2017-best-picks

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ard-80-ranking-markelle-fultz-lonzo-ball-more

Thanks a bunch!

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

Ranking Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram and top prospects in 2016 NBA draft by statistical projections

A familiar name tops my statistics-based projections for the 2016 NBA Draft, but a surprising player is not far behind.

I first unveiled my projections, which factor in a player's translated college or international performance, his age and his rank on Chad Ford's big board, for collegians during the NCAA tournament.

(Read more on the process and see past projections here.)

Now, it's time to update those rankings to include the final list of international prospects after Monday's deadline to withdraw from the draft.

Remarkably, just two players are in both Ford's top 10 and the top 10 of my statistical projections, the group that tends to yield All-Stars more consistently. Typically, there are about five such players per season. That lack of agreement between performance and scouting might be one reason 2016 is considered a weak draft.

Although this draft is relatively light on star college talent, the international crop looks strong. Four of the top-10 prospects by my projections played overseas, and three more international players rank in the top 30, not including the Australian-born prospect who ranks No. 1.

1. Ben Simmons | LSU | Forward
Big Board: No. 1 | Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.6 WARP

Don't be alarmed by Simmons' ranking seventh in the stats-only WARP projections, which consider a player's projected NBA performance and age. One factor in the projections regresses translated college performance to the average for the player's position. For most players, this doesn't matter much, but it does become a problem for a unique, versatile talent such as Simmons, who passes like a point guard and rebounds like a big man.

Absent the regression factor, Simmons would rank third strictly by the numbers, and including his No. 1 spot in Ford's ranking puts him appropriately at the top of this list.

2. Dragan Bender | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Power forward
Big Board: No. 6 | Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.4 WARP

As previewed in my discussion of Bender's potential with Ford, the Croatian forward by way of Israeli power Maccabi Tel Aviv projects as the second-best prospect in the draft, ahead of consensus top-two pick Brandon Ingram.

Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets).

3. Brandon Ingram | Duke | Small forward
Big Board: No. 2 | Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.9 WARP

Although Ingram's translated performance at Duke should hardly be considered a red flag, it does not suggest the kind of stardom forecast by scouts. Aside from a strong block rate, the value of Ingram's length didn't show up in the box score in his college freshman season.

Of course, Ingram isn't getting credit for his solid individual defense -- one of the factors that explains why adding the scouting perspectives improves projections, compared to using stats alone.

4. Jamal Murray | Kentucky | Guard
Big Board: No. 3 | Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.6 WARP

Although his performance at Kentucky doesn't suggest that Murray is a point guard (his projected assist rate is only average for an NBA-bound shooting guard), he projects well offensively. His freshman performance was broadly similar to that of C.J. McCollum at Lehigh after accounting for schedule strength, but Murray created more shots and shot more 3s than McCollum.

The concern is defense; Murray barely dented the box score with steals or blocks.

5. Jakob Poeltl | Utah | Center
Big Board: No. 12 | Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.3 WARP

My projections and those unveiled by the ESPN Analytics department last week agree on Poeltl, who joins Simmons and Ingram in the top five in both models.

The only question is whether a traditional center such as Poeltl remains as valuable in a changing NBA. The limited number of teams who need such a player is one reason Poeltl ranks lower on Ford's big board.

6. Zhou Qi (if age 20) | Xinjiang Guanghui | Power forward
Big Board: No. 48 | Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 2.3 WARP

Forget about Bender, who has been scouted extensively by the NBA. Zhou is the real "international man of mystery" in the 2016 draft. He dominated weak competition in the Chinese CBA the past two seasons, but questions persist about how his weak frame will hold up against NBA opposition.

Although Zhou wasn't quite as good this season as he was in 2014-15 -- when he blocked better than one in 10 opponent 2-point attempts while shooting nearly 70 percent from the field -- based on his listed age (20), he tops all players in my statistical projections. If instead Zhou is projected at age 23, based on scouts' suspicions about his age, he drops to 16th in projected WARP and 27th in the consensus projections.

7. Kris Dunn | Providence | Point guard
Big Board: No. 4 | Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.3 WARP

Because my model considers only the past three seasons, Dunn's relatively weak freshman campaign doesn't work against him. That season is a bit of a concern, though Dunn's terrific defensive stats (his projected steal rate ranks second among prospects in Ford's top 100) should translate reliably to the NBA.

8. Juan Hernangomez | Estudiantes | Power forward
Big Board: No. 26 | Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.0 WARP

The younger brother of 2015 Knicks second-round pick Willy Hernangomez, Juan is a stretch-4 prospect who developed into a starter in the Spanish ACB this season at age 20.

More than 40 percent of Hernangomez's attempts came from beyond the arc, and he made them at a healthy 35.8 percent clip. For a perimeter-oriented big man, Hernangomez is also a strong defensive rebounder.

9. Ante Zizic | KK Cibona | Center
Big Board: No. 21 | Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 1.9 WARP

The Adriatic League has produced solid center talent lately, in Nuggets teammates Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic, and Zizic looks like the next in the line.

He shot better than 60 percent from the field in Adriatic play this season while averaging 18.2 points and 11.0 rebounds per 36 minutes.

10. Marquese Chriss | Washington | Power forward
Big Board: No. 5 | Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.9 WARP

An unheralded prospect entering his lone season as a Husky, Chriss suddenly finds himself fifth on Ford's big board and even higher in mock drafts. That might be too much, too soon.

While Chriss is an explosive athlete who showed college 3-point range (shooting an even 35 percent), his defensive rebounding is a major concern. He was a below average defensive rebounder at UW -- not for a big man but for a player at any position. Whatever team drafts Chriss will have to hope that was a product of the Huskies' tendency to switch Chriss onto guards or his late-developing frame.

11. Wade Baldwin IV | Vanderbilt | Point guard
Big Board: No. 18 | Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.7 WARP

Before he was in the first round of mock drafts, Baldwin's performance as a freshman in 2014-15 pegged him as a sleeper. His combination of playmaking and shooting ability is relatively rare.

Among sophomores in my college database, the only previous player with a projected assist rate better than seven per 100 plays and projected 3-point shooting better than 35 percent was Chris Paul. That said, Paul projected as a far superior overall prospect.

12. Ivica Zubac | KK Mega Vizura | Center
Big Board: No. 25 | Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 1.7 WARP

Because Zubac has played limited minutes against top competition, his projection is more based on potential at age 19 than performance so far. In 259 minutes of Serbian KLS play since joining Mega Vizura, Zubac shot just 50.5 percent from the field, though he's been far more accurate in previous spot minutes.

13. Buddy Hield | Oklahoma | Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 8 | Stats: No. 28
Consensus: 1.7 WARP

A unique feature of my model is that it weighs earlier seasons in college more heavily than recent seasons because of the poor track record of late bloomers such as Hield. If Hield proves to be a knockdown 3-point shooter in the NBA, he'll be an exception, but historically, past improvement has not guaranteed more in the future.

14. Fred VanVleet | Wichita State | Point guard
Big Board: No. 60 | Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 1.7 WARP

VanVleet's terrific statistical projection -- best among NCAA prospects -- is a surprising result from this year's model. He has a rare combination of playmaking ability and sure-handedness. VanVleet's projected 4.09 assist-to-turnover ratio is the best of any player in my college database, which was previously topped by 2013 second-round pick Nate Wolters, at 3.45. That probably won't make VanVleet an NBA star, but it gives him a good chance to become a reliable backup.

15. Henry Ellenson | Marquette | Power forward
Big Board: No. 11 | Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.6 WARP

Ellenson has been compared to Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love, and this is an instructive example of how such comparisons can be unfair to prospects (and to the stars drawing the comparison). Ellenson was a good freshman at Marquette. Love was one of the nation's best players in his lone season at UCLA, and he dominated on the glass and scored far more efficiently than Ellenson.

If everything breaks right, Ellenson's ceiling looks a lot like what Love has become (Ellenson is perhaps a slightly better rim protector). But after he shot 28.8 percent on 3s and 49.5 percent on 2s in college, Ellenson has a long way to get there.

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

16. Tyler Ulis | Kentucky | Point guard
Big Board: No. 23 | Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.6 WARP

From a statistical standpoint, Ulis' small stature -- the explanation for why scouts aren't so high on him -- manifests itself mostly in his weak 2-point percentage (projected at 41.6 percent as a rookie).

Ulis will probably have to develop into a consistent 3-point shooter to score efficiently in the NBA, but he's an excellent playmaker and a pesky defender.

17. Domantas Sabonis | Gonzaga | Power forward
Big Board: No. 10 | Stats: No. 31
Consensus: 1.5 WARP

A high-percentage finisher, Sabonis projects to have the seventh-best true shooting percentage as a rookie among players in Ford's top 100. He's also a good passer for a big man, but he rates poorly at the defensive end because of low steal and block rates.

18. Furkan Korkmaz | Anadolu Efes | Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 14 | Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Korkmaz, who surprised draft experts by electing to remain eligible at age 18 (he'll turn 19 in July), was an effective offensive player against Euroleague competition with Efes, despite his youth.

Korkmaz's defensive stats are poor, however, and those numbers don't tend to improve much with age.

19. Patrick McCaw | UNLV | Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 28 | Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.5 WARP

The top-rated 3-and-D wing in this year's draft by my projections, McCaw is a prolific thief who brings unusual ballhandling skill for a role player on the wing. He isn't yet a consistent 3-point threat, but he could probably survive without major improvement there, along the lines of players such as Corey Brewer and Iman Shumpert.

20. Deyonta Davis | Michigan State | Power forward
Big Board: No. 16 | Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Although Davis is listed as a power forward, his ability to defend centers will probably be key to his NBA future. Davis blocks shots well enough to protect the rim as a center, and his finishing off the pick-and-roll figures to be more effective when he is the lone big man in a four-out system.

Perhaps Davis will improve his jumper to the point that he can space the floor, but his foul shooting (60.5 percent) is not promising in this regard.

21. Denzel Valentine | Michigan State | Small forward
Big Board: No. 22 | Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 1.3 WARP

Valentine -- not the more heralded Hield -- rated as the best player in college hoops last season on a per-minute basis, by Sports-Reference.com's box plus-minus metric.

Valentine too was a late bloomer and did not emerge as a star until his junior year, so he doesn't project quite as well overall as his senior season would suggest.

22. Diamond Stone | Maryland | Center
Big Board: No. 32 | Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.2 WARP

For a 19-year-old center, Stone has some solid skills, including impressive 76.1 percent free throw shooting as a freshman.

To succeed, however, Stone will probably have to improve as a defensive rebounder. Among freshmen centers in my database, only Tarik Black projected worse on the defensive glass.

23. Gary Payton II | Oregon State | Point guard
Big Board: No. 55 | Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.2 WARP

Here's an interesting contrast: As a 6-foot-3 point guard, Payton outrebounded Stone on the defensive glass. In fact, GPII projects as the best defensive rebounder among point guards in my database, and rebounding has generally been a strong indicator for point guards.

Befitting the son of the former Defensive Player of the Year, Payton has the best projected steal rate in the draft and the highest projected block rate for a point guard in my database. Although Payton is neither a great playmaker nor an outside shooting threat, he figures to be a standout defensively.

24. Chinanu Onuaku | Louisville | Center
Big Board: No. 35 | Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 1.1 WARP

A favorite of statistical projections (he ranks 13th in the ESPN Analytics model, which does not include international prospects), Onuaku has decent skill for a low-usage big man, particularly as a passer. His real value comes at the defensive end, where he projects as a good shot-blocker and has an excellent steal rate for a center.

25. Cheick Diallo | Kansas | Power forward
Big Board: No. 27 | Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.1 WARP

In limited action at Kansas (he played just 202 minutes all season, albeit often in competitive situations), Diallo was an impressive rebounder and shot-blocker, but he struggled when asked to do anything besides finish on offense. He handed out one assist in 202 minutes against 17 turnovers and committed 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes.

Diallo's pedigree and defensive stats are enough to keep him in the first round -- barely.

26. Jameel Warney | Stony Brook | Power forward
Big Board: No. 78 | Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.1 WARP

A classic undersized yet productive big man in the Trevor Booker mold, Warney's production against mid-major competition projects well to the NBA.

Warney did a little of everything at Stony Brook, and he is a fine passer and shot-blocker for a power forward. Like Deyonta Davis, he might eventually slide down a position, though he's listed at 6-foot-8.

27. Guerschon Yabusele | Rouen | Forward
Big Board: No. 30 | Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 1.0 WARP

Listed at a bruising 6-foot-8, 240 pounds, Yabusele has showed more skill than his frame would suggest. He has FIBA 3-point range and shot an excellent 76.5 percent from the foul line in league competition in France. If anything, Yabusele's ability to hold his own on the glass and challenge shots around the rim are in question.

28. Dejounte Murray | Washington | Point guard
Big Board: No. 9 | Stats: No. 59
Consensus: 1.0 WARP

NBA teams are projecting Murray as a point guard after he shared ballhandling duties with Washington senior Andrew Andrews in his lone college season. At the point, Murray's 6-foot-6 size is a huge plus, and he has shown the ability to get to the basket off the dribble.

The question is whether Murray can improve his finishing and develop his outside shot in order to score efficiently. Murray's projected .458 true shooting percentage (TS%) would become the worst for any first-round pick in my database. (Elfrid Payton, who posted a .463 TS% as a freshman, currently holds that dubious distinction.)

29. Malik Beasley | Florida State | Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 17 | Stats: No. 44
Consensus: 1.0 WARP

As a freshman, Beasley was a high-percentage scorer at Florida State, as he averaged 20.9 points per 40 minutes on solid .583 true shooting.

Alas, the translation to the NBA takes a big chunk out of his 3-point percentage, and if Beasley isn't an efficient scorer, he might not contribute in other ways. His assist and steal rates are poor for a shooting guard.

30. Ron Baker | Wichita State | Guard
Big Board: No. 59 | Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 0.9 WARP

VanVleet's backcourt-mate ranks just ahead of him on Ford's big board but doesn't have quite as effusive a statistical projection.

Baker has demonstrated enough ballhandling chops running the show with VanVleet on the bench to be considered a combo guard at the NBA level.

Shooting more consistently on his frequent 3-point attempts (he made 35 percent as a senior after 38-plus the previous two seasons) would help.

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

Projections for Ford's top 100
Note: Due to insufficient statistical data, I do not have projections for Thon Maker and three other top-100 prospects: Georgios Papagiannis (No. 74), Gracin Bakumanya (No. 76) and Brandon Austin (No. 100).

Pelton's draft projections
Player Big Board WARP Rk Consensus Rk
1. Ben Simmons 1 2.4 6 3.6 1
2. Dragan Bender 6 3.4 2 3.4 2
3. Brandon Ingram 2 1.9 11 2.9 3
4. Jamal Murray 3 1.7 15 2.6 4
5. Jakob Poeltl 12 2.4 5 2.3 5
6. Zhou Qi 48 3.5 1 2.3 6
7. Kris Dunn 4 1.5 19 2.3 7
8. Juan Hernangomez 26 2.6 4 2 8
9. Ante Zizic 21 2.3 7 1.9 9
10. Marquese Chriss 5 1.1 32 1.9 10
11. Wade Baldwin IV 18 1.9 12 1.7 11
12. Ivica Zubac 25 2.1 8 1.7 12
13. Buddy Hield 8 1.2 28 1.7 13
14. Fred VanVleet 60 2.8 3 1.7 14
15. Henry Ellenson 11 1.4 23 1.6 15
16. Tyler Ulis 23 1.9 14 1.6 16
17. Domantas Sabonis 10 1.2 31 1.5 17
18. Furkan Korkmaz 14 1.4 22 1.5 18
19. Patrick McCaw 28 1.9 10 1.5 19
20. Deyonta Davis 16 1.4 21 1.5 20
Player Big Board WARP Rk Consensus Rk
21. Denzel Valentine 22 1.5 20 1.3 21
22. Diamond Stone 32 1.7 17 1.2 22
23. Gary Payton II 55 2.1 9 1.2 23
24. Chinanu Onuaku 35 1.6 18 1.1 24
25. Cheick Diallo 27 1.3 27 1.1 25
26. Jameel Warney 78 1.9 13 1.1 26
27. Guerschon Yabusele 30 1.3 24 1 27
28. Dejounte Murray 9 0.3 59 1 28
29. Malik Beasley 17 0.8 44 1 29
30. Ron Baker 59 1.7 16 0.9 30
31. Skal Labissiere 13 0.4 53 0.9 31
32. Stephen Zimmerman Jr. 40 1.3 25 0.9 32
33. Brice Johnson 37 1.2 30 0.8 33
34. Caris LeVert 41 1.2 29 0.8 34
35. Jarrod Uthoff 36 1 39 0.8 35
36. Marcus Paige 65 1.3 26 0.6 36
37. Malachi Richardson 15 0.2 67 0.6 37
38. Kay Felder 49 1 40 0.6 38
39. Jaylen Brown 7 -0.5 101 0.5 39
40. Derrick Jones Jr. 86 1.1 33 0.5 40
Player Big Board WARP Rk Consensus Rk
41. James Webb III 58 1 38 0.5 41
42. Alex Caruso NR 1.1 34 0.5 42
43. Shawn Long 87 1.1 35 0.5 43
44. Daniel Ochefu NR 1.1 36 0.5 44
45. Jordan Fouse NR 1 37 0.5 45
46. Robert Carter 51 0.8 42 0.4 46
47. Josh Hagins NR 0.9 41 0.4 47
48. Petr Cornelie 50 0.7 45 0.4 48
49. Demetrius Jackson 29 0.3 58 0.4 49
50. Taurean Prince 34 0.3 56 0.3 50
51. Thomas Walkup NR 0.8 43 0.3 51
52. DeAndre Bembry 20 -0.1 76 0.3 52
53. Rico Gathers 98 0.7 46 0.2 53
54. Pascal Siakam 43 0.4 54 0.2 55
55. Daniel Hamilton 71 0.6 48 0.2 56
56. Ryan Arcidiacono 79 0.6 49 0.2 57
57. Egidijus Mockevicius 85 0.6 50 0.2 58
58. Josh Scott 99 0.6 51 0.1 59
59. Isaiah Whitehead 47 0.2 61 0.1 61
60. Dorian Finney-Smith 72 0.4 55 0 62
Player Big Board WARP Rk Consensus Rk
61. Joel Bolomboy 42 0 73 -0.1 64
62. Damian Jones 24 -0.4 94 -0.1 65
63. Ben Bentil 31 -0.3 84 -0.1 66
64. Yogi Ferrell 77 0.3 60 -0.1 67
65. Jake Layman 53 0.1 70 -0.1 68
66. Tim Quarterman 63 0.2 66 -0.1 73
67. Brannen Greene 81 0.1 69 -0.2 75
68. David Walker 80 0.1 71 -0.2 76
69. Isaia Cordinier 44 -0.2 80 -0.2 78
70. A.J. Hammons 46 -0.2 81 -0.2 79
71. Timothe Luwawu 33 -0.4 95 -0.2 80
72. Kyle Wiltjer 73 0 74 -0.3 81
73. Malcolm Brogdon 38 -0.5 97 -0.3 82
74. Dyshawn Pierre 97 -0.1 75 -0.3 83
75. A.J. English 61 -0.1 78 -0.4 85
76. Rade Zagorac 45 -0.4 91 -0.4 86
77. Paul Zipser 57 -0.2 82 -0.4 87
78. Troy Williams 70 -0.2 79 -0.4 88
79. Isaiah Cousins 39 -0.6 105 -0.4 90
80. Isaiah Miles 84 -0.3 86 -0.4 92
Player Big Board WARP Rk Consensus Rk
81. Kyle Collinsworth 83 -0.3 87 -0.5 93
82. Damion Lee 94 -0.4 88 -0.5 94
83. Tyrone Wallace 66 -0.4 90 -0.5 96
84. Perry Ellis 69 -0.5 99 -0.6 101
85. Michael Gbinije 52 -0.6 106 -0.6 103
86. Sheldon McClellan 64 -0.7 108 -0.7 108
87. Georges Niang 67 -0.8 111 -0.8 111
88. Wayne Selden Jr. 68 -0.9 115 -0.9 115
89. Zach Auguste 89 -0.9 116 -0.9 116
90. Prince Ibeh 88 -0.9 117 -0.9 117
91. Danuel House 82 -1 119 -1 119
92. Marcus Georges-Hunt 96 -1.1 121 -1 121
93. Marshall Plumlee 75 -1.3 122 -1.1 122
94. Rosco Allen 93 -1.3 123 -1.1 123
95. Anthony Barber 56 -1.5 129 -1.3 128
96. Alex Poythress 54 -1.6 132 -1.3 130
97. Devin Williams 92 -1.6 131 -1.4 132
98. Jalen Reynolds 91 -1.7 134 -1.4 134
99. Isaiah Taylor 90 -2 138 -1.6 138
100. Elgin Cook 62 -2 139 -1.7 139
101. Nikola Jovanovic 95 -2.4 142 -1.9 142

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

Pelton: How my NBA draft projections work

Three primary factors go into my projections for the NBA draft:

A player's projected performance as a rookie

His age

His rank on Chad Ford's big board

All three of those factors have helped predict how well college and international players will perform in the NBA. Let's take a closer look at them.

Projected performance
For college and international players alike, my projections start with translating what players have done before with what they will do in the NBA for 14 core statistics: 2-point percentage; 3-point percentage; free throw percentage; offensive and defensive rebound percentage; assists; steals and fouls per 100 team plays; blocks per 100 2-point attempts; percentage of individual plays devoted to 2-point, 3-point and free throw attempts; turnovers; and usage rate.

Some stats tend to decline once players enter the league more than others. For example, free throw percentage rarely changes much, but players shoot much worse percentages from the field. For college players, this process also adjusts for strength of schedule to put players who faced different levels of competition on a level playing field.

Utilizing multiple seasons of data yields better projections than looking solely at the most recent season. In fact, for college players I've found that earlier seasons tend to project NBA performance better than more recent seasons because older prospects no longer have the same experience advantage in the NBA. So the player's most recent season is weighted two times, the season before that (if available) three times, and two seasons before that five times. The weights are opposite for international prospects, who haven't demonstrated the same pattern because they are playing against older opponents.

The last factor in the projections is regressing performance to positional averages for NBA rookies (for college prospects) and replacement-level performance (for international players). This helps account for outliers, particularly for stats that tend to fluctuate, such as 3-point percentage. As a sophomore at Arizona, Derrick Williams shot 56.8 percent on 74 3-point attempts. Williams has made 29.9 percent of his 3s during his NBA career.

It doesn't make sense to regress a point guard to the same assist rate or block rate as a center, so this is the one place where positions affect my projections. This tends to have more impact for players who saw limited action in college or overseas than experienced players. It also can be problematic for versatile players, such as Ben Simmons, whose stat lines don't look like any one particular position.

WARP projections
The statistics-only version of my projections estimates the wins above replacement player (WARP) that a prospect will average during his first five seasons in the league, adjusted to favor immediate projection by discounting performance in future years.

To calculate this, I've used past players in my database -- which is largely complete back through the 2006 draft and includes a handful of players back through 2003 for whom per-play college stats are available -- to run a model projecting WARP based on the player's projected win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) as a rookie and his age.

Because players tend to develop through around age 27, their age makes a large impact on their projections. All other things being equal, each additional year of age tends to reduce a player's projected NBA value by about 0.5 WARP per season.

Consensus projections
Inspired by draft analyst Layne Vashro's Humble model (Vashro is now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the parent company of the Denver Nuggets), in 2015 I introduced consensus projections that also include the league's assessment of a prospect's talent. For past prospects, I measure this with where they were actually drafted. For current prospects, I estimate this using their rank in Ford's top 100.

Using the actual draft slot plays a factor in subjective scouting analysis and improves projections, so I tend to use it as my primary ranking of players, while also showing the stats-only projections when possible.

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

Past projections
To give an idea of how my projections have worked -- and when they haven't -- here are the rankings for the 2006 through 2015 drafts, based on my current projection model:

2015 draft projections
Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Karl-Anthony Towns 1 3.0 3 4.0 1
D'Angelo Russell 2 3.3 1 3.9 2
Kristaps Porzingis 4 3.2 2 3.5 3
Jahlil Okafor 3 2.0 15 2.8 4
Emmanuel Mudiay 7 2.7 7 2.8 5
Frank Kaminsky 9 2.7 5 2.7 6
Myles Turner 11 2.6 8 2.5 7
Mario Hezonja 5 1.7 23 2.3 8
Stanley Johnson 8 2.1 13 2.3 9
Tyus Jones 24 2.8 4 2.2 10
Delon Wright 20 2.6 9 2.2 11
Cameron Payne 14 2.2 11 2.0 12
R.J. Hunter 28 2.7 6 2.0 13
Justise Winslow 10 1.7 25 1.9 14
Sam Dekker 18 2.2 10 1.9 15
Bobby Portis 22 2.1 12 1.8 16
Kelly Oubre 15 1.8 21 1.8 17
Willie Cauley-Stein 6 1.1 31 1.8 18
Cedi Osman 31 2.0 17 1.5 19
Devin Booker 13 1.2 30 1.4 20
Guillermo Hernangomez 35 1.9 19 1.4 21
Kevon Looney 30 1.8 22 1.3 22
Chris McCullough 29 1.6 27 1.2 23
Trey Lyles 12 0.9 39 1.2 24
Richaun Holmes 37 1.7 24 1.2 25
Terry Rozier 16 1.1 33 1.2 26
Arturas Gudaitis 47 1.9 20 1.2 27
Alan Williams UD 2.1 14 1.2 28
Briante Weber UD 2.0 16 1.1 29
Christian Wood UD 1.9 18 1.1 30
Marcus Eriksson 50 1.7 26 1.0 31
Rashad Vaughn 17 0.9 40 1.0 32
Justin Anderson 21 1.0 35 1.0 33
Jerian Grant 19 0.9 41 1.0 34
Daniel Diez 54 1.5 29 0.8 35
Dimitris Agravanis 59 1.5 28 0.8 36
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 23 0.7 43 0.7 37
Pat Connaughton 41 0.9 37 0.6 38
Montrezl Harrell 32 0.7 44 0.6 39
Tyler Harvey 51 1.0 34 0.6 40
Aaron White 49 0.9 38 0.5 41
Cliff Alexander UD 1.1 32 0.5 42
Larry Nance Jr. 27 0.3 49 0.4 43
Dakari Johnson 48 0.8 42 0.4 44
Luka Mitrovic 60 0.9 36 0.4 45
Darrun Hilliard 38 0.5 46 0.4 46
Nikola Milutinov 26 0.1 51 0.3 47
Jordan Mickey 33 0.1 52 0.1 48
T.J. McConnell UD 0.6 45 0.1 49
Jarell Martin 25 -0.1 54 0.1 50
Nikola Radicevic 57 0.5 47 0.1 51
Branden Dawson 56 0.4 48 0.0 52
Joseph Young 43 0.0 53 -0.1 53
Aaron Harrison UD 0.2 50 -0.1 54
Olivier Hanlan 42 -0.2 55 -0.2 55
Marcus Thornton 45 -0.2 56 -0.2 56
Andrew Harrison 44 -0.7 58 -0.6 57
Josh Richardson 40 -0.8 60 -0.6 58
J.P. Tokoto 58 -0.6 57 -0.7 59
Anthony Brown 34 -1.1 64 -0.7 60
Sir'Dominic Pointer 53 -0.8 59 -0.7 61
Norman Powell 46 -1.0 63 -0.8 62
Cady Lalanne 55 -0.9 61 -0.8 63
Duje Dukan UD -0.9 62 -0.9 64
Rakeem Christmas 36 -1.3 66 -0.9 65
Bryce DeJean-Jones UD -1.3 65 -1.2 66
J.J. O'Brien UD -2.5 67 -2.0 67

2014 draft projections
Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Marcus Smart 6 3.6 1 3.5 1
Joel Embiid 3 2.9 7 3.4 2
Jabari Parker 2 2.5 8 3.4 3
Andrew Wiggins 1 1.3 20 2.8 4
Jusuf Nurkic 16 3.3 3 2.8 5
Clint Capela 25 3.4 2 2.6 6
Noah Vonleh 9 2.4 9 2.5 7
Jordan Adams 22 3.0 6 2.4 8
Aaron Gordon 4 1.7 15 2.4 9
Nikola Jokic 41 3.1 5 2.1 10
Julius Randle 7 1.6 16 2.1 11
Doug McDermott 11 1.8 14 1.9 12
Tyler Ennis 18 2.0 11 1.8 13
Gary Harris 19 1.9 12 1.7 14
Nik Stauskas 8 1.2 21 1.7 15
P.J. Hairston 26 2.0 10 1.6 16
Dario Saric 12 1.4 19 1.6 17
Jarnell Stokes 35 1.9 13 1.4 18
Elfrid Payton 10 0.8 32 1.3 19
Zach Lavine 13 0.9 26 1.2 20
Kyle Anderson 30 1.5 17 1.2 21
K.J. McDaniels 32 1.5 18 1.1 22
James Young 17 0.8 31 1.0 23
Shabazz Napier 24 1.1 23 1.0 24
T.J. Warren 14 0.6 33 1.0 25
Damien Inglis 31 1.2 22 0.9 26
Mitch McGary 21 0.8 30 0.9 27
Spencer Dinwiddie 38 1.1 24 0.7 28
Walter Tavares 43 1.0 25 0.6 29
Dante Exum 5 3.3 4 0.6 30
Lamar Patterson 48 0.9 28 0.5 31
Adreian Payne 15 -0.1 47 0.4 32
Langston Galloway UD 0.9 27 0.4 33
Glenn Robinson III 40 0.6 38 0.4 34
Bryce Cotton UD 0.9 29 0.3 35
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 0.2 41 0.3 36
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 51 0.6 37 0.2 37
Vasilije Micic 52 0.6 36 0.2 38
Devyn Marble 56 0.6 34 0.2 39
Eric Moreland UD 0.6 35 0.1 40
Rodney Hood 23 -0.2 48 0.1 41
Josh Huestis 29 -0.1 46 0.1 42
Sim Bhullar UD 0.4 39 0.1 43
Cleanthony Early 34 0.0 43 0.1 44
Louis Labeyrie 57 0.3 40 0.0 45
Nick Johnson 42 0.0 45 -0.1 46
Tim Frazier UD 0.2 42 -0.1 47
Alec Brown 50 0.0 44 -0.2 48
C.J. Wilcox 28 -0.5 59 -0.2 49
Johnny O'Bryant 36 -0.4 53 -0.2 50
Jerami Grant 39 -0.4 55 -0.3 51
Russ Smith 47 -0.3 51 -0.3 52
Joe Harris 33 -0.6 61 -0.3 53
Jerrelle Benimon UD -0.2 49 -0.4 54
Andre Dawkins UD -0.2 50 -0.4 55
Jordan Clarkson 46 -0.5 58 -0.4 56
Tyler Johnson UD -0.3 52 -0.5 57
Markel Brown 44 -0.6 60 -0.5 58
Cory Jefferson 60 -0.4 54 -0.5 59
Alex Kirk UD -0.4 56 -0.5 60
Sean Kilpatrick UD -0.5 57 -0.6 61
DeAndre Daniels 37 -0.9 65 -0.6 62
David Stockton UD -0.8 62 -0.8 63
Jabari Brown UD -0.8 63 -0.8 64
Shayne Whittington UD -0.8 64 -0.8 65
Alessandro Gentile 53 -0.9 66 -0.8 66
Tarik Black UD -1.0 67 -0.9 67
Dwight Powell 45 -1.3 70 -1.0 68
Nemanja Dangubic 54 -1.2 69 -1.0 69
James Michael McAdoo UD -1.1 68 -1.0 70
Jordan McRae 58 -1.4 71 -1.2 71
Semaj Christon 55 -1.5 72 -1.3 72
Cameron Bairstow 49 -1.8 75 -1.4 73
JaKarr Sampson UD -1.7 73 -1.4 74
Xavier Thames 59 -1.8 74 -1.5 75
Travis Wear UD -2.1 76 -1.7 76
David Wear UD -2.6 77 -2.0 77

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

2013 draft projections
Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Nerlens Noel 6 3.6 1 3.5 1
Anthony Bennett 1 2.1 12 3.4 2
Otto Porter 3 2.7 2 3.2 3
Cody Zeller 4 2.5 5 3.0 4
Victor Oladipo 2 1.7 16 2.8 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 8 2.6 4 2.6 6
C.J. McCollum 10 2.5 6 2.5 7
Trey Burke 9 2.2 9 2.3 8
Lucas Nogueira 16 2.4 7 2.1 9
Michael Carter-Williams 11 2.0 13 2.1 10
Andre Roberson 26 2.6 3 2.0 11
Steven Adams 12 1.9 15 1.9 12
Sergey Karasev 19 2.0 14 1.8 13
Ben McLemore 7 1.1 34 1.6 14
Nate Wolters 38 2.2 8 1.6 15
Shane Larkin 18 1.6 19 1.5 16
Pierre Jackson 42 2.1 10 1.4 17
Rudy Gobert 27 1.7 17 1.3 18
Kelly Olynyk 13 1.1 33 1.3 19
Alex Len 5 0.3 50 1.3 20
Arsalan Kazemi 54 2.1 11 1.3 21
Glen Rice Jr. 35 1.6 18 1.2 22
Tony Mitchell 37 1.5 23 1.1 23
Alex Abrines 32 1.4 25 1.0 24
Grant Jerrett 40 1.5 22 1.0 25
Mike Muscala 44 1.5 20 1.0 26
Marko Todorovic 45 1.5 21 1.0 27
Reggie Bullock 25 1.0 36 0.9 28
Allen Crabbe 31 1.1 28 0.9 29
Ray McCallum 36 1.1 29 0.8 30
Robert Covington UD 1.4 24 0.7 31
Tim Hardaway Jr. 24 0.6 43 0.7 32
Jeff Withey 39 1.0 37 0.7 33
Ryan Kelly 48 1.1 32 0.6 34
Phil Pressey UD 1.2 26 0.6 35
Bojan Dubljevic 59 1.2 27 0.6 36
Isaiah Canaan 34 0.8 39 0.6 37
Troy Daniels UD 1.1 30 0.5 38
James Southerland UD 1.1 31 0.5 39
Gorgui Dieng 21 0.2 52 0.5 40
Jamaal Franklin 41 0.7 40 0.5 41
D.J. Stephens UD 1.0 35 0.5 42
Livio Jean-Charles 28 0.4 49 0.4 43
Matthew Dellavedova UD 0.9 38 0.4 44
Ian Clark UD 0.7 41 0.2 45
Solomon Hill 23 0.0 54 0.2 46
Joffrey Lauvergne 55 0.6 42 0.2 47
Tony Snell 20 -0.2 56 0.2 48
Raul Neto 47 0.5 45 0.2 49
Deshaun Thomas 58 0.6 44 0.2 50
James Ennis 50 0.4 46 0.2 51
Erick Green 46 0.4 48 0.2 52
Shabazz Muhammad 14 -0.7 62 0.1 53
Mason Plumlee 22 -0.4 60 0.0 54
Seth Curry UD 0.4 47 0.0 55
Brandon Davies UD 0.3 51 0.0 56
Archie Goodwin 29 -0.3 59 -0.1 57
Erik Murphy 49 0.0 53 -0.1 58
Nemanja Nedovic 30 -0.4 61 -0.2 59
Peyton Siva 56 -0.1 55 -0.3 60
Lorenzo Brown 52 -0.3 58 -0.4 61
Adonis Thomas UD -0.3 57 -0.4 62
Carrick Felix 33 -1.2 66 -0.8 63
Elias Harris UD -1.0 63 -0.9 64
Alex Oriakhi 57 -1.1 64 -1.0 65
Romero Osby 51 -1.2 67 -1.0 66
Vander Blue UD -1.1 65 -1.0 67
DeWayne Dedmon UD -1.5 68 -1.3 68
Colton Iverson 53 -1.8 69 -1.4 69

2012 draft projections
Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Anthony Davis 1 5.5 1 5.8 1
Bradley Beal 3 2.5 5 3.1 2
Dion Waiters 4 2.2 7 2.7 3
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 2 1.3 19 2.5 4
Damian Lillard 6 2.2 8 2.5 5
Jared Sullinger 21 3.1 2 2.5 6
Andre Drummond 9 1.9 13 2.1 7
Draymond Green 35 2.8 3 2.0 8
Jae Crowder 34 2.7 4 1.9 9
Terrence Jones 18 2.1 9 1.9 10
Thomas Robinson 5 1.1 23 1.9 11
John Jenkins 23 1.9 11 1.6 12
John Henson 14 1.5 16 1.5 13
Jeremy Lamb 12 1.3 21 1.5 14
Royce White 16 1.4 17 1.4 15
Evan Fournier 20 1.6 14 1.4 16
Maurice Harkless 15 1.3 20 1.4 17
Christapher Johnson UD 2.2 6 1.3 18
Harrison Barnes 7 0.5 34 1.3 19
Terrence Ross 8 0.5 33 1.2 20
Marcus Denmon 59 2.1 10 1.2 21
Tony Wroten 25 1.3 18 1.2 22
Robbie Hummel 58 1.9 12 1.1 23
Kendall Marshall 13 0.8 28 1.1 24
Furkan Aldemir 53 1.5 15 0.9 25
Khris Middleton 39 1.2 22 0.9 26
Jared Cunningham 24 0.8 26 0.8 27
Austin Rivers 10 -0.1 45 0.7 28
Tyler Zeller 17 0.3 38 0.6 29
Meyers Leonard 11 -0.1 47 0.6 30
Kostas Papanikolaou 48 1.0 24 0.6 31
Tomas Satoransky 32 0.7 30 0.6 32
Kyle O'Quinn 49 0.9 25 0.5 33
Will Barton 40 0.7 29 0.5 34
Quincy Miller 38 0.6 31 0.4 35
Arnett Moultrie 27 0.3 37 0.4 36
Quincy Acy 37 0.5 35 0.4 37
Kevin Jones UD 0.8 27 0.3 38
Andrew Nicholson 19 -0.2 49 0.3 39
Orlando Johnson 36 0.3 39 0.2 40
Perry Jones 28 0.1 43 0.2 41
Scott Machado UD 0.6 32 0.1 42
Marquis Teague 29 -0.1 44 0.1 43
Tornike Shengelia 54 0.3 36 0.0 44
Fab Melo 22 -0.4 50 0.0 45
Tomislav Zubcic 56 0.2 40 -0.1 46
Doron Lamb 42 -0.1 46 -0.1 47
Kent Bazemore UD 0.2 41 -0.1 48
Maalik Wayns UD 0.2 42 -0.1 49
Darius Miller 46 -0.1 48 -0.2 50
Jeff Taylor 31 -0.7 53 -0.4 51
Festus Ezeli 30 -0.7 54 -0.4 52
Tyshawn Taylor 41 -0.5 52 -0.4 53
Kris Joseph 51 -0.4 51 -0.4 54
Darius Johnson-Odom 55 -0.8 55 -0.7 55
Robert Sacre 60 -0.8 56 -0.8 56
Kim English 44 -1.1 57 -0.9 57
Mike Scott 43 -1.2 58 -0.9 58
Henry Sims UD -1.2 59 -1.1 59
Bernard James 33 -1.7 61 -1.1 60
Miles Plumlee 26 -1.9 63 -1.1 61
DeQuan Jones UD -1.5 60 -1.3 62
Kevin Murphy 47 -1.8 62 -1.3 63

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

2011 draft projections
Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Kyrie Irving 1 4.2 2 4.9 1
Derrick Williams 2 3.3 3 3.9 2
Kenneth Faried 22 5.1 1 3.8 3
Jonas Valanciunas 5 2.7 6 2.9 4
Tristan Thompson 4 2.2 9 2.8 5
Alec Burks 12 2.7 5 2.5 6
Bismack Biyombo 7 2.2 10 2.5 7
Jimmer Fredette 10 2.4 8 2.4 8
Nikola Mirotic 23 2.9 4 2.3 9
Kawhi Leonard 15 2.5 7 2.3 10
Kemba Walker 9 1.9 12 2.1 11
Brandon Knight 8 1.6 19 2.0 12
Jan Vesely 6 1.0 47 1.7 13
Reggie Jackson 24 2.0 10 1.6 14
JaJuan Johnson 27 1.9 14 1.5 15
Marcus Morris 14 1.3 24 1.5 16
Shelvin Mack 34 2.0 11 1.4 17
Klay Thompson 11 1.0 39 1.4 18
Markieff Morris 13 1.1 35 1.4 19
Jordan Hamilton 26 1.6 18 1.3 20
Chris Singleton 18 1.3 27 1.3 21
Jimmy Butler 30 1.6 20 1.2 22
Tobias Harris 19 1.2 28 1.2 23
Nikola Vucevic 16 1.1 38 1.2 24
Iman Shumpert 17 1.1 36 1.2 25
Trey Thompkins 37 1.7 17 1.2 26
Keith Benson 48 1.9 13 1.2 27
Marshon Brooks 25 1.3 26 1.1 28
Jon Leuer 40 1.6 21 1.1 29
Josh Selby 49 1.7 16 1.1 30
D.J. Kennedy UD 1.9 15 1.0 31
Justin Harper 32 1.3 25 1.0 32
Cory Joseph 29 1.2 31 1.0 33
Travis Leslie 47 1.6 22 1.0 34
Kyle Singler 33 1.2 30 0.9 35
Milan Macvan 54 1.6 23 0.9 36
Donatas Motiejunas 20 0.8 43 0.9 37
Jordan Williams 36 1.1 33 0.8 38
Tyler Honeycutt 35 1.1 37 0.8 39
Lavoy Allen 50 1.2 32 0.7 40
Jon Diebler 51 1.1 34 0.6 41
Cory Higgins UD 1.2 29 0.6 42
Josh Harrellson 45 0.9 40 0.6 43
Chandler Parsons 38 0.7 46 0.5 44
Charles Jenkins 44 0.7 44 0.4 45
Greg Smith UD 0.8 41 0.3 46
Malcolm Thomas UD 0.8 42 0.3 47
Norris Cole 28 0.2 51 0.3 48
Darius Morris 41 0.4 50 0.2 49
Bojan Bogdanovic 31 0.0 54 0.1 50
E'Twaun Moore 55 0.4 48 0.1 51
Isaiah Thomas 60 0.4 49 0.0 52
Nolan Smith 21 -0.5 57 0.0 53
Andrew Goudelock 46 0.1 53 -0.1 54
Julyan Stone UD 0.1 52 -0.2 55
Malcolm Lee 43 -0.2 56 -0.2 56
Chris Wright UD -0.2 55 -0.4 57
Xavier Silas UD -1.1 58 -1.0 58
DeAndre Liggins 53 -1.6 59 -1.3 59
Vernon Macklin 52 -1.9 60 -1.5 60
Mychel Thompson UD -2.0 61 -1.6 61

2010 draft projections
Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
DeMarcus Cousins 5 4.1 1 3.9 1
John Wall 1 2.4 10 3.6 2
Greg Monroe 7 3.3 2 3.2 3
Derrick Favors 3 2.6 7 3.2 4
Gordon Hayward 9 3.3 3 3.1 5
Cole Aldrich 11 3.1 4 2.8 6
Xavier Henry 12 2.7 6 2.5 7
Paul George 10 2.4 9 2.4 8
Evan Turner 2 1.1 28 2.4 9
Patrick Patterson 14 2.4 8 2.2 10
Hassan Whiteside 33 2.8 5 2.0 11
Al-Farouq Aminu 8 1.7 18 2.0 12
Wesley Johnson 4 1.1 33 1.9 13
James Anderson 20 2.1 12 1.8 14
Ed Davis 13 1.5 23 1.6 15
Trevor Booker 23 1.8 16 1.5 16
Daniel Orton 29 2.0 14 1.5 17
Jarvis Varnado 41 2.2 11 1.5 18
Dexter Pittman 32 1.9 15 1.4 19
Ekpe Udoh 6 0.6 42 1.4 20
Dominique Jones 25 1.6 20 1.3 21
Tibor Pleiss 31 1.8 17 1.3 22
Larry Sanders 15 1.1 31 1.3 23
Manny Harris UD 2.0 13 1.1 24
Tiny Gallon 47 1.6 19 1.0 25
Damion James 24 1.1 32 1.0 26
Jerome Jordan 44 1.5 22 1.0 27
Eric Bledsoe 18 0.8 37 0.9 28
Luke Harangody 52 1.6 21 0.9 29
Luke Babbitt 16 0.6 40 0.9 30
Landry Fields 39 1.3 25 0.9 31
Devin Ebanks 43 1.2 27 0.8 32
Jeremy Lin UD 1.3 24 0.7 33
Willie Warren 54 1.2 26 0.6 34
Avery Bradley 19 0.3 48 0.6 35
Lance Stephenson 40 0.9 36 0.6 36
Paulao Prestes 45 0.9 35 0.6 37
Jordan Crawford 27 0.5 43 0.5 38
Dwayne Collins 60 1.1 29 0.5 39
Solomon Alabi 50 1.0 34 0.5 40
Ben Uzoh UD 1.1 30 0.5 41
Andy Rautins 38 0.7 39 0.5 42
Greivis Vasquez 28 0.4 46 0.5 43
Kevin Seraphin 17 0.0 53 0.5 44
Terrico White 36 0.6 41 0.4 45
Elliot Williams 22 0.1 50 0.4 46
Gani Lawal 46 0.7 38 0.4 47
Lazar Hayward 30 0.0 52 0.1 48
Jeremy Evans 55 0.5 44 0.1 49
Darington Hobson 36 0.1 51 0.1 50
Derrick Caracter 58 0.5 45 0.1 51
Da'Sean Butler 42 0.2 49 0.1 52
Nemanja Bjelica 35 0.0 54 0.0 53
Samardo Samuels UD 0.4 47 0.0 54
Armon Johnson 34 -0.1 55 0.0 55
Quincy Pondexter 26 -0.4 57 -0.1 56
Craig Brackins 21 -0.8 60 -0.2 57
Stanley Robinson 59 -0.1 56 -0.3 58
Sherron Collins UD -0.5 58 -0.6 59
Hamady Ndiaye 56 -0.7 59 -0.7 60
Magnum Rolle 51 -1.0 61 -0.8 61
Ishmael Smith UD -1.5 62 -1.3 62
Ryan Reid 57 -2.5 63 -1.9 63

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

2009 draft projections
Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Blake Griffin 1 4.2 3 4.9 1
James Harden 3 4.2 2 4.3 2
Ricky Rubio 5 3.7 5 3.7 3
Stephen Curry 7 3.9 4 3.6 4
DeJuan Blair 37 5.0 1 3.5 5
Hasheem Thabeet 2 2.0 12 3.0 6
Tyreke Evans 4 2.2 11 2.7 7
Ty Lawson 18 2.8 7 2.4 8
Jrue Holiday 17 2.8 8 2.3 9
Brandon Jennings 10 2.3 14 2.3 10
Jonny Flynn 6 1.5 15 2.1 11
Nick Calathes 45 3.1 6 2.0 12
Jordan Hill 8 1.3 19 1.8 13
Tyler Hansbrough 13 1.5 16 1.6 14
Sergio Llull 34 2.2 10 1.6 15
Daniel Green 46 2.3 9 1.5 16
Byron Mullens 24 1.8 13 1.5 17
James Johnson 16 1.1 25 1.2 18
Terrence Williams 11 0.8 31 1.2 19
Earl Clark 14 0.9 28 1.2 20
Darren Collison 21 1.1 24 1.1 21
Eric Maynor 20 1.0 26 1.1 22
Jeff Ayres 31 1.3 20 1.0 23
Chase Budinger 44 1.5 17 0.9 24
Gerald Henderson Jr. 12 0.3 42 0.8 25
DeMar DeRozan 9 0.1 49 0.8 26
Jeff Teague 19 0.7 35 0.8 27
Marcus Thornton 43 1.3 21 0.8 28
DeMarre Carroll 27 0.9 29 0.8 29
Lester Hudson 58 1.4 18 0.8 30
Patrick Beverley 42 1.2 23 0.8 31
Omri Casspi 23 0.7 45 0.7 32
Austin Daye 15 0.3 43 0.7 33
Victor Claver 22 0.5 38 0.7 34
Patrick Mills 55 1.2 22 0.6 35
Henk Norel 47 1.0 27 0.6 36
Jermaine Taylor 32 0.7 33 0.6 37
Wayne Ellington 28 0.6 37 0.6 38
Jodie Meeks 41 0.8 30 0.5 39
Derrick Brown 40 0.8 32 0.5 40
DaJuan Summers 35 0.7 34 0.5 41
Jon Brockman 38 0.5 40 0.3 42
Ahmad Nivins 56 0.7 36 0.2 43
Goran Suton 50 0.5 39 0.2 44
Toney Douglas 29 0.1 47 0.2 45
Taj Gibson 26 -0.1 51 0.1 46
Chinemelu Elonu 59 0.5 41 0.1 47
Dante Cunningham 33 0.0 50 0.1 48
A.J. Price 52 0.2 44 0.0 49
Emir Preldzic 57 0.1 48 -0.1 50
Robert Dozier 60 0.1 46 -0.2 51
Sam Young 36 -0.5 53 -0.3 52
Wesley Matthews UD -0.4 52 -0.5 53
Taylor Griffin 48 -1.0 54 -0.8 54
Robert Vaden 54 -1.4 55 -1.2 55
Jack McClinton 51 -1.5 56 -1.2 56

2008 draft projections
Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Kevin Love 5 4.6 1 4.3 1
Michael Beasley 2 3.7 2 4.2 2
Derrick Rose 1 1.7 10 3.1 3
Danilo Gallinari 6 2.9 4 3.0 4
Ryan Anderson 21 2.6 3 2.1 5
Brook Lopez 10 1.9 8 2.1 6
Russell Westbrook 4 1.1 21 2.0 7
Eric Gordon 7 1.4 17 1.9 8
Roy Hibbert 17 2.1 6 1.9 9
J.J. Hickson 19 2.0 7 1.8 10
Jason Thompson 12 1.6 13 1.7 11
Jerryd Bayless 11 1.5 16 1.7 12
O.J. Mayo 3 0.4 29 1.7 13
Anthony Randolph 14 1.6 12 1.6 14
Robin Lopez 15 1.6 11 1.6 15
Mario Chalmers 34 2.2 5 1.6 16
Marreese Speights 16 1.5 14 1.5 17
Kosta Koufos 23 1.8 9 1.5 18
D.J. Augustin 9 0.9 23 1.4 19
JaVale McGee 18 1.3 18 1.3 20
George Hill 26 1.5 15 1.3 21
Nicolas Batum 25 1.2 26 1.1 22
Donte Greene 28 1.2 19 1.0 23
D.J. White 29 1.1 20 0.9 24
Darrell Arthur 27 0.9 24 0.8 25
DeAndre Jordan 35 1.0 22 0.8 26
Joe Alexander 8 -0.1 39 0.8 27
Nikola Pekovic 31 0.8 25 0.6 28
Courtney Lee 22 0.2 32 0.4 29
Brandon Rush 13 -0.3 41 0.4 30
Kyle Weaver 38 0.4 30 0.3 31
Bill Walker 47 0.5 28 0.3 32
Darnell Jackson 52 0.6 27 0.2 33
Chris Douglas-Roberts 40 0.2 31 0.1 34
J.R. Giddens 30 -0.1 36 0.1 35
Sean Singletary 42 0.1 34 0.0 36
Malik Hairston 48 0.2 33 0.0 37
Joey Dorsey 33 -0.4 42 -0.2 38
Anthony Morrow UD 0.0 35 -0.3 39
Othello Hunter UD -0.1 37 -0.3 40
Rob Kurz UD -0.1 38 -0.3 41
DeMarcus Nelson UD -0.2 40 -0.4 42
Sonny Weems 39 -0.7 43 -0.5 43
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute 37 -0.8 44 -0.5 44
Joe Crawford 58 -1.2 45 -1.0 45

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

2007 draft projections
Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Greg Oden 1 3.6 2 4.5 1
Kevin Durant 2 3.7 1 4.1 2
Mike Conley 4 2.7 4 3.1 3
Al Horford 3 2.2 6 2.9 4
Brandan Wright 8 2.1 7 2.3 5
Rudy Fernandez 24 2.9 3 2.2 6
Joakim Noah 9 2.0 9 2.2 7
Jeff Green 5 1.6 14 2.2 8
Sean Williams 17 2.4 5 2.1 9
Thaddeus Young 12 2.0 10 2.0 10
Rodney Stuckey 15 2.1 8 2.0 11
Corey Brewer 7 1.0 22 1.6 12
Spencer Hawes 10 1.2 18 1.6 13
Javaris Crittenton 19 1.7 13 1.5 14
Nick Fazekas 34 2.0 11 1.4 15
Julian Wright 13 1.2 19 1.4 16
Jason Smith 20 1.5 16 1.4 17
Josh McRoberts 37 1.7 12 1.2 18
Marco Belinelli 18 1.0 20 1.1 19
Glen Davis 35 1.5 15 1.1 20
Tiago Splitter 28 1.2 17 1.0 21
Jared Dudley 22 1.0 21 1.0 22
Al Thornton 14 0.4 26 0.8 23
Carl Landry 31 0.9 24 0.7 24
Daequan Cook 21 0.3 27 0.5 25
Aaron Gray 49 1.0 23 0.5 26
Stephane Lasme 46 0.7 25 0.4 27
Wilson Chandler 23 0.1 29 0.4 28
Marcus Williams 33 0.3 28 0.3 29
Aaron Brooks 26 -0.1 32 0.2 30
Acie Law 11 -0.8 39 0.1 31
Dominic McGuire 47 0.0 30 -0.1 32
Arron Afflalo 27 -0.5 38 -0.1 33
Jermareo Davidson 36 -0.3 35 -0.2 34
Ramon Sessions 56 -0.1 31 -0.2 35
D.J. Strawberry 59 -0.1 33 -0.3 36
Demetris Nichols 53 -0.2 34 -0.3 37
Mario West UD -0.3 36 -0.5 38
Joel Anthony UD -0.4 37 -0.5 39
Nick Young 16 -1.4 41 -0.5 40
Chris Richard 41 -1.2 40 -0.9 41

2006 draft projections
Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Andrea Bargnani 1 2.8 5 3.9 1
Tyrus Thomas 4 3.6 1 3.7 2
Shelden Williams 5 2.7 3 3.0 3
LaMarcus Aldridge 2 1.8 11 2.9 4
Patrick O'Bryant 9 2.7 4 2.6 5
Rudy Gay 8 1.9 8 2.2 6
Paul Millsap 47 3.2 2 2.1 7
Adam Morrison 3 0.8 28 1.9 8
Brandon Roy 6 1.3 20 1.9 9
Ronnie Brewer 14 1.9 10 1.8 10
Cedric Simmons 15 1.7 13 1.7 11
Renaldo Balkman 20 1.9 7 1.7 12
Rajon Rondo 21 2.0 6 1.7 13
Shawne Williams 17 1.8 12 1.7 14
Thabo Sefolosha 13 1.3 19 1.5 15
Quincy Douby 19 1.6 15 1.5 16
J.J. Redick 11 1.1 22 1.4 17
Randy Foye 7 0.7 29 1.4 18
Jordan Farmar 26 1.7 14 1.4 19
Mardy Collins 29 1.6 16 1.2 20
Paul Davis 34 1.5 17 1.1 21
Marcus Williams 22 1.1 21 1.1 22
Justin Williams UD 1.9 9 1.1 23
Hilton Armstrong 12 0.5 33 1.0 24
Daniel Gibson 42 1.5 18 1.0 25
Rodney Carney 16 0.7 30 0.9 26
Sergio Rodriguez 27 0.9 25 0.8 27
Craig Smith 36 0.9 27 0.7 28
Dee D. Brown 46 1.0 23 0.6 29
Josh Boone 23 0.4 34 0.6 30
Leon Powe 49 1.0 24 0.5 31
Chris Quinn UD 0.9 26 0.4 32
Solomon Jones 33 0.4 35 0.3 33
Alexander Johnson 45 0.6 32 0.3 34
Tarence Kinsey UD 0.6 31 0.2 35
Bobby Jones 37 0.1 38 0.1 36
Hassan Adams 54 0.4 36 0.1 37
Allan Ray UD 0.2 37 -0.1 38
David Noel 39 -0.2 39 -0.1 39

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

Brilliant picks for every NBA team in both rounds of the draft

The typical mock draft tries to predict which prospects NBA teams will pick.

This grade A mock draft instead looks at whom they should pick. And unlike those from my ESPN Insider colleagues Chad Ford and Jeff Goodman, because my player evaluations are heavily influenced by my stats-based projections, it won't look anything like what will actually happen Thursday night.

As with Ford, here are the rules I'm following:

1. At each slot, I make a pick in the best interest only of the team with the pick. I won't pass on a player at No. 4 just because I like the team fit better at No. 5.

2. No trades unless they're already completed.

3. Team needs are taken into account, but value can and often will supersede need. If there's clearly a best player available on the board, I won't pass on him just to fill a need.

4. I'm not reporting or predicting who will go where. This is my opinion about what should happen, not what will.

Without further ado, here's whom I'd take with all 60 picks:

1. Philadelphia 76ers (via Celtics)
Lonzo Ball | UCLA | Freshman | Guard

We start with a twist right at the top. The expected No. 1 overall pick, Markelle Fultz, would be a good fit with Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and the rest of the 76ers' core. I think Ball would be a great fit because of his superior shooting range, his cutting ability and the culture of unselfish ball movement he'd help create.

2. Los Angeles Lakers
Markelle Fultz | Washington | Freshman | Guard

Fultz isn't falling past here. The Lakers would waste no time making him the No. 2 pick if the Sixers take Ball No. 1.

3. Boston Celtics (via 76ers)
Jonathan Isaac | Florida State | Freshman | Forward

I like Isaac slightly better than Josh Jackson in general, but particularly for the Celtics, because Isaac is more likely to develop into an average or better 3-point shooter, and Boston will have better ways to find shot creators via free agency and trades.

4. Phoenix Suns
Josh Jackson | Kansas | Freshman | Forward

If Jackson is still on the board at 4, he's a great fit for the Suns, who need a strong wing defender alongside Devin Booker and don't have a ball-dominant point guard.

5. Sacramento Kings
Dennis Smith | North Carolina State | Freshman | Guard

I have Smith rated ahead of De'Aaron Fox as the best point guard after the top two picks. As Goodman noted when we discussed the lottery on this week's NBA Lockdown draft preview podcast, Smith's tendency not to compete might be more problematic in Sacramento than on a team with strong veteran leadership. Still, given his offensive skills, that's a chance I'm willing to take.

6. Orlando Magic
Jayson Tatum | Duke | Freshman | Forward

Given the Magic's need for a shot creator, and because of their poor shooting, I'd pass on OG Anunoby to take Tatum.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves
OG Anunoby | Indiana | Sophomore | Forward

Without access to Anunoby's medical data, it's tough to tell exactly what seems to be bothering teams about his rehab from an ACL tear. (Ford and I discussed that on The Basketball Analogy's draft preview podcast). That noted, I think teams generally tend to make mistakes by getting too conservative with injury risk and overemphasizing short-term results despite the fact that few rookies really help teams win right away.

Zach Collins or Lauri Markkanen would be an interesting fit alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, but I think the Timberwolves can more easily upgrade at power forward in free agency. Anunoby would excel as a wing defender in coach Tom Thibodeau's scheme, ultimately pushing Andrew Wiggins to shooting guard and Zach LaVine to a reserve role.

8. New York Knicks
De'Aaron Fox | Kentucky | Freshman | Guard

Fox would be a great value at this point and would fill a need at point guard. He's a terrible fit in the triangle offense. However, if I were running the Knicks' front office, we wouldn't be running the triangle, so problem solved.

9. Dallas Mavericks
Malik Monk | Kentucky | Freshman | Guard

In reality, the Mavericks would certainly take French point guard Frank Ntilikina at this point. I'm less sold on Ntilikina as a top-10 pick, and the trades over the past week have dramatically improved Dallas' chances of adding a starting point guard in free agency. So I'm going for Monk, envisioning him as a bigger version of Seth Curry, who excelled in coach Rick Carlisle's offense last season.

10. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)
Zach Collins | Gonzaga | Freshman | Center

I would put Collins among the five players most likely to be effective in the NBA, because of his precocious per-minute performance at Gonzaga and his obvious skill for his size. Nonetheless, the depth at center in the league right now means Collins isn't one of the top five prospects in terms of value. Even the Kings would have a crowd up front if they added Collins to Willie Cauley-Stein, Kosta Koufos and Skal Labissiere. But they'd make it work.

11. Charlotte Hornets
Donovan Mitchell | Louisville | Sophomore | Guard

Having acquired Dwight Howard to strengthen their frontcourt, the Hornets should now look to the perimeter. Mitchell would immediately help their wing defense as a reserve and projects as a potential starter at shooting guard down the road.

12. Detroit Pistons
Lauri Markkanen | Arizona | Freshman | Forward

Ideally, Markkanen would be paired with a strong rebounder and rim protector who can minimize his defensive weaknesses. Andre Drummond comes close to fitting that bill, and Markkanen's floor spacing would be ideal for coach Stan Van Gundy's offense.

13. Denver Nuggets
Harry Giles | Duke | Freshman | Forward

By this point in the lottery, taking a chance on Giles' upside makes sense for teams. He's a particularly good fit for the Nuggets, who need an athletic power forward who can help protect the rim alongside Nikola Jokic.

14. Miami Heat
Tyler Lydon | Syracuse | Sophomore | Forward

I don't really get why Lydon isn't getting more buzz as a prospect who can block shots and stretch the floor as a 3-point shooter. In this scenario, I view him as an upgraded version of Luke Babbitt alongside Hassan Whiteside. In reality, Lydon will probably go early in the second round.

15. Portland Trail Blazers
Isaiah Hartenstein | Zalgiris | Age: 19 | Forward

Portland should be looking to add athleticism and defense in the frontcourt. Anunoby and Giles would both be great fits if they're still on the board. If not, it's a big drop-off in terms of wing defenders, and I prefer Hartenstein (whose father, Flo, played at the University of Oregon) to T.J. Leaf because of Hartenstein's potential to protect the rim.

Hartenstein has had excellent steal and block rates playing in Lithuania. I translated his stats after publishing my rankings, and Hartenstein ranks 12th in this draft in terms of stats-only projection and 16th in the consensus model.

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

16. Chicago Bulls
Frank Ntilikina | Strasbourg | Age: 18 | Guard

While the top 10 seems a little high for Ntilikina, he's good value at this point and would give the Bulls approximately their 74th point guard younger than age 25 on the roster, but probably their best chance of finding a long-term starter at the position.

17. Milwaukee Bucks
Josh Hart | Villanova | Senior | Guard

Having gotten great value from a senior prospect last year in Malcolm Brogdon, I have the Bucks going that route again with Hart. He could fit immediately into a wing rotation with Khris Middleton, Jabari Parker and Tony Snell and serve as insurance in case Snell gets an offer too rich to match in restricted free agency.

18. Indiana Pacers
Jawun Evans | Oklahoma State | Sophomore | Guard

If the Pacers are entering a rebuild, as it appears, Jeff Teague is probably headed elsewhere and Indiana has no long-term solution behind him. Evans has the most upside of any point guard left on the board.

19. Atlanta Hawks
TJ Leaf | UCLA | Freshman | Forward

Paul Millsap appears to be headed elsewhere via free agency, and while the Hawks are far enough away from expecting to compete in the East that they could add at any position, Leaf is the kind of skilled big man who could excel in coach Mike Budenholzer's system.

20. Portland Trail Blazers (via Nuggets)
Ike Anigbogu | UCLA | Freshman | Center

Anigbogu, 18, is the youngest player in this year's draft. But with multiple first-round picks, the Blazers can wait on him to develop into a capable backup for Jusuf Nurkic.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder
Jonah Bolden | FMB Beograd | Age: 21 | Forward

Bolden is one of this year's most fascinating prospects. A native of Australia, he was a nonfactor in one season at UCLA, then signed to play in Serbia and was one of the best players in the prospect-rich Adriatic League. If you ignore his college performance, Bolden would project as a top-10 pick. If you go by what he did in college, he shouldn't get drafted at all. This seems like a reasonable place to split the difference and give the Thunder a chance at their most complete role player alongside Victor Oladipo on the wing.

22. Brooklyn Nets (via Wizards)
John Collins | Wake Forest | Sophomore | Forward

Like Zach Collins (no relation), John Collins is a quality player in search of a team with a need in the frontcourt. That describes the Nets, who have been willing to play two slower big men together. But now that they've traded Brook Lopez to the Lakers, the Nets could let Collins settle in at center.

23. Toronto Raptors (via Bucks)
Semi Ojeleye | SMU | Junior | Forward

Ojeleye seems like a player who could be a favorite of Raptors president Masai Ujiri. Ojeleye has great physical tools for an NBA small forward and possibly enough strength to play some as an undersized 4. Essentially, he could be a younger version of P.J. Tucker.

24. Utah Jazz
Luke Kennard | Duke | Sophomore | Guard

My concerns about Kennard's defense have caused him to drop further here than he will Thursday. If anyone can hide him on D, it's the Jazz, and Kennard's broad offensive skill set would fit well in Utah's offense. If Joe Ingles departs, Kennard could help fill his role.

25. Orlando Magic (via Raptors)
Alec Peters | Valparaiso | Senior | Forward

A hybrid big man was one of the categories on the Magic's infamous leaked whiteboard, and Peters fits the bill. His elite 3-point shooting would help Orlando space the floor, and Peters and Aaron Gordon could swap defensive assignments if they play together, protecting Peters from guarding elite athletes.

26. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)
Aleksandar Vezenkov | FC Barcelona | Age: 21 | Forward

If the Blazers keep all three of their picks, roster limits practically demand that they stash at least one player overseas. Vezenkov is far and away the best such prospect, according to my projections. (Hartenstein could also remain overseas, though in this scenario I'm envisioning him coming to the NBA immediately.)

27. Los Angeles Lakers (via Nets)
Jarrett Allen | Texas | Freshman | Center

While the Lakers are full up at center next season with the newly acquired Lopez, Tarik Black (whose contract is non-guaranteed) and Ivica Zubac, only Zubac is under contract beyond 2017-18. The Lakers could use a more athletic complement to Zubac, and Allen projects as a center who might be able to switch to smaller players at times.

28. Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets)
Terrance Ferguson | Australia | Age: 19 | Guard

With their third pick, the Lakers swing for the fences. Ferguson was wildly ineffective after opting to play in Australia upon graduating from high school. After translating his stats from Australia's National Basketball League, his NBA projection is for minus-0.8 WARP per season. Still, by the end of the first round it's worth gambling on the combination of shooting and size Ferguson displayed in high school showcases.

29. San Antonio Spurs
Jeremy Morgan | Northern Iowa | Senior | Guard

Jonathon Simmons is a restricted free agent who might get overpaid after an impressive Western Conference finals, so I'd like to see the Spurs add a 3-and-D player to replace him. Morgan is a favorite of my statistical projections because of his strong block and steal rates against Horizon League competition.

30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)
Caleb Swanigan | Purdue | Sophomore | Forward

Boris Diaw's 2017-18 salary is non-guaranteed. Derrick Favors' future is uncertain, and Trey Lyles hasn't yet shown he can be a rotation player, so the Jazz are somewhat unsettled at power forward. Swanigan would add skill and power to the mix, and he happened to spend part of his itinerant childhood in Salt Lake City.

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

31. Charlotte Hornets (via Hawks)
Monte Morris | Iowa State | Senior | Guard

Morris, whose stats-only projection ranks third overall, has been the best prospect remaining on my board for some time in this draft. Few teams have needed a backup point guard. That changes with the Hornets, whom Morris could help immediately behind Kemba Walker.

32. Phoenix Suns
Tony Bradley | North Carolina | Freshman | Center

Alex Len and Alan Williams are both restricted free agents, so Tyson Chandler is the only Phoenix center under contract for 2017-18. Bradley doesn't offer immediate help but has intriguing potential down the road.

33. Orlando Magic (via Lakers)
Derrick White | Colorado | Senior | Guard

Having addressed the frontcourt a couple of times, the Magic add White to their guard rotation. A standout at D-II Colorado-Colorado Springs, White up-transferred for his senior year and proved he could compete against Pac-12 opposition.

34. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)
Justin Jackson | North Carolina | Junior | Forward

With two lottery picks, the Kings didn't address their biggest current hole at small forward. While they have $55 million in cap space to do that, Jackson would also figure into the mix.

35. Orlando Magic
Anzejs Pasecniks | Gran Canaria | Age: 21 | Center

Flush with second-round picks after two first-rounders, the Magic will have to start stashing at some point if they don't trade (which they can't in this mock draft). Pasecniks doesn't play a position of current need, but by the time he comes over, Nikola Vucevic might have moved on.

36. Philadelphia 76ers (via Raptors)
Davon Reed | Miami | Senior | Guard

The Sixers already have several 3-and-D options but could use more with their talent at point guard, power forward and center. Reed was a 40 percent 3-point shooter at Miami, and he is a capable defender at either guard spot.

37. Boston Celtics (via Suns)
Justin Patton | Creighton | Freshman | Center

Patton has fallen the furthest among the group of centers from Nos. 13-19 in my consensus projections. I'm a little skeptical of his short track record of elite play. Still, he's well worth a second-round pick.

38. Chicago Bulls (via Cavaliers)
Edrice Adebayo | Kentucky | Freshman | Forward

A likely first-round pick, Adebayo ranks just 51st in my stats-only projections because of his poor rebound, assist and steal rates at Kentucky. At some point, he's worth the gamble that he'll be more productive than he was in college.

39. Philadelphia 76ers (via Mavericks)
Alpha Kaba | KK Mega Vizura | Age: 20 | Forward

The Sixers have four second-round picks this year, so some stashes are in order. Kaba doesn't seem to have a ton of upside but could eventually be a rotation piece.

40. New Orleans Pelicans
Sindarius Thornwell | South Carolina | Senior | Guard

Thornwell is one of the most fascinating prospects in this draft from a statistical standpoint. Projections that take into account only his senior season, when Thornwell led South Carolina to the Final Four, are likely to love his strong steal and block rates and 39.5 percent 3-point shooting. But Thornwell wasn't nearly as effective in any of those categories before his senior year, which suggests to my projections -- weighted more heavily toward early seasons, which have proved to be more predictive -- that his senior success was a bit of a fluke.

For a team in desperate need of quality role players on the wing, it's worth gambling that the Thornwell we saw as a senior will translate to the NBA.

41. Atlanta Hawks (via Hornets)
Ivan Rabb | California | Sophomore | Forward

Ford and I agreed Rabb is the most overrated prospect in this year's draft, working on the assumption that he'll go in the first round. By the early second, he's reasonable value.

42. Utah Jazz (via Pistons)
Frank Jackson | Duke | Freshman | Guard

A Utah native, Jackson has the potential to play on or off the ball in the NBA, much like current Jazz starter George Hill. Jackson is still available this late largely because of a poor steal rate that tanks his statistical projection.

43. Houston Rockets (via Nuggets)
V.J. Beachem | Notre Dame | Senior | Forward

The Rockets are always on the lookout for wing shooters, and Beachem was a 39 percent 3-point shooter in college. At 6-foot-8, he has enough size to defend either wing spot.

44. New York Knicks (via Bulls)
Derrick Walton Jr. | Michigan | Senior | Guard

Even if the Knicks take a point guard in the first round, the position might still be a need in the second because Derrick Rose and backup Ron Baker are both free agents. Walton is a complement to Fox as a much better outside shooter.

45. Houston Rockets (via Blazers)
Chris Boucher | Oregon | Senior | Forward

Boucher is an elite shot-blocker with college 3-point range. He's also 24, having taken a circuitous route to Oregon, and is coming off a torn ACL. If anyone is willing to take a shot on that unorthodox package, it's the Rockets.

46. Philadelphia 76ers (via Hawks)
Luka Bozic | KK Zagreb | Age: 21 | Guard

I don't have a statistical projection for Bozic, because he played in the Croatian A-1 Liga, not the stronger Adriatic League. He was impressive against weak opposition, averaging 22.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game.

47. Indiana Pacers
Jordan Bell | Oregon | Junior | Forward

Bell is another late bloomer whose skill set is a tricky fit in the NBA. At 6-foot-8, he's probably too short to play center, and he doesn't stretch the floor at power forward. That makes him a good fit alongside a stretch 5 like Myles Turner.

48. Milwaukee Bucks
D.J. Wilson | Michigan | Junior | Forward

Wilson has potential as a pick-and-pop power forward with the athleticism to switch on defense. His dreadful rebounding is a concern.

49. Denver Nuggets (via Thunder)
Marko Guduric | KK Crvena Zvezda | Age: 22 | Guard

The Nuggets have had success mining the Adriatic League for Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. Guduric doesn't have anything close to that kind of upside, but he is one of the better shooters in the draft.

50. Philadelphia 76ers (via Hawks)
Jonathan Jeanne | Le Mans | Age: 19 | Center

After an impressive showing at the NBA draft combine, Jeanne was a possible first-round pick before being diagnosed with Marfan syndrome, which puts his playing career in jeopardy. At some point, the value of a late second-round pick is low enough that it's worth taking a chance that Jeanne is cleared to return.

51. Denver Nuggets (via Thunder)
Mathias Lessort | JSF Nanterre | Age: 21 | Forward

Lessort projects as something of a poor man's J.J. Hickson. He's an accurate shooter and solid rebounder who doesn't provide much rim protection or stretch the floor.

52. Washington Wizards
Melo Trimble | Maryland | Junior | Guard

The Wizards desperately need a backup point guard, which might be hard to find this late. Trimble has enough offensive skill to fill that role, though he disappointed as a junior and will probably struggle defensively.

53. Boston Celtics (via Cavaliers)
Thomas Bryant | Indiana | Sophomore | Center

At this point, the Celtics are looking for prospects to develop at their G League affiliate (formerly the D-League). Bryant has good skill for his size and is worth a shot.

54. Phoenix Suns (via Raptors)
Sterling Brown | SMU | Senior | Guard

Brown was a 45 percent 3-point shooter last season but on limited volume; he attempted just 3.9 per game as a senior in 32.7 minutes. He might be a new Anthony Morrow.

55. Utah Jazz
Vlatko Cancar | Mega Leks | Age: 20 | Forward

Playing in the Adriatic League at age 19, Cancar showed impressive efficiency, though his rebound, steal and block rates suggest he might not be athletic enough for the NBA.

56. Boston Celtics (via Clippers)
Alberto Abalde | Joventut | Age: 21 | Forward

Abalde has some offensive skills but might not be athletic enough to defend NBA wings.

57. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)
Kyle Kuzma | Utah | Junior | Forward

Another late bloomer, at least from a statistical standpoint, Kuzma translated his potential into production as a junior. His poor steal and block rates are tough to reconcile with his length and athleticism.

58. New York Knicks (Rockets)
Rolands Smits | Fuenlabrada | Age: 21 | Forward

No relation to Rik Smits (aka The Dunking Dutchman), this Smits -- who is actually Latvian, like Kristaps Porzingis -- spaces the floor at 6-foot-10 but doesn't project to do much else at an NBA level.

59. San Antonio Spurs
Jake Wiley | Eastern Washington | Senior | Forward

Wiley is one of this year's most interesting draft stories. After playing one season at Montana, he spent a year running track before resurfacing at Eastern Washington with one year of eligibility. An impressive performance at the Portsmouth pre-draft camp put Wiley on scouts' radars as a possible second-round pick.

60. Atlanta Hawks (via Jazz)
Kobi Simmons | Arizona | Senior | Guard

Just 19, Simmons is miles away from being ready to contribute in the NBA. The Hawks would be drafting him to develop in the G League.

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

Chad Ford NBA draft 2017 Big Board 8.0

The NBA draft is almost here and teams are now finalizing their big boards in preparation for Thursday night.

Here's the latest intel on the top 30 prospects after consulting NBA scouts and general managers.

Remember, these rankings aren't based on my opinion. They are based on conversations with numerous NBA front offices. Of course, each team has its own rankings. However, this is the closest thing to a consensus of the NBA's thinking.

After we get past pick No. 11, the consensus is a little looser. Teams are all over the place on the next 20 to 25 players.

1. Markelle Fultz
Previous rank: No. 1
Washington | Freshman | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 7
Big Board history: Fultz started at No. 3 on Big Board 1.0 in August. He moved up to No. 1 on Big Board 2.0, our first after the college season began, and has stayed there ever since.
Why he'll hit his ceiling: He's the most complete player in the draft. There really isn't anything he doesn't do well. He can shoot, handle, pass and defend. He also has great size, length and sneaky athleticism for his position. He has some Brandon Roy and James Harden in his game.
Why he won't surpass his floor: While Fultz doesn't have any major holes in his game, he hasn't always shown an aggressiveness or drive to win that other top prospects have displayed. His effort on the defensive end was lacking at times, and he seemed to give up during his freshman season at Washington.
Draft range: Nos. 1-2
Potential destination: Sixers

2. Lonzo Ball
Previous rank: No. 2
UCLA | Freshman | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 4
Big Board history: Ball started at No. 6 in our first Big Board 1.0 in August. He moved up to No. 2 in Big Board 2.0 and hasn't moved from that position.
Ceiling: He's the best passer in the draft. In fact, he might be the best passer to come out of the draft in the last decade. His court vision and ability to anticipate plays before they develop is uncanny. He also has deep range on his jump shot and is a very good finisher at the rim. While it's not a perfect comp, he sees the game a lot like Jason Kidd did.
Floor: Not an elite athlete. His defense was porous. His jump shot is unorthodox and his release is slow. He's not going to fit in every system. The scouts who don't love him think he's the second coming of Shaun Livingston.
Draft range: Nos. 2-4
Potential destinations: Lakers, Suns

3. Josh Jackson
Previous rank: No. 3
Kansas | Freshman | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 2
Big Board history: Jackson was ranked No. 1 in Big Board 1.0, moved to No. 3 in Big Board 2.0 and stayed at No. 3 the rest of the year.
Ceiling: He has a Kevin Garnett-like intensity to the way he plays the game. He's the best two-way player in the draft and has elite court vision for a wing, along with great length and athleticism. He's also a creative scorer at the rim and deeply cares about winning. There's some Kawhi Leonard to his game.
Floor: His jumper has a hitch in it and he's a terrible free throw shooter. He needs to add strength. At 20, he's old for his class. Off-court incidents his freshman year raise questions about his character. He can get too emotional on the court. If his jumper doesn't get fixed, he could be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Draft range: Nos. 2-4
Potential destinations: Lakers, Celtics, Suns

4. Jayson Tatum
Previous rank: No. 4
Duke | Freshman | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 3
Big Board history: Tatum began the year ranked No. 7 in Big Board 1.0. He moved up to No. 6 in Big Board 2.0 and to No. 4 in Big Board 5.0 in April, and he has been there ever since.
Ceiling: Tatum is the best wing scorer in the draft, a sophisticated offensive player who can get his shot off from anywhere on the floor. He has polished moves off the bounce and good size for his position. Extremely hard worker. Reminds scouts of a young Rudy Gay.
Floor: He's just a so-so athlete. His 3-point shot is still a work in progress. He's a bit one-dimensional. Not a plus as a defender, rebounder or passer. Can play selfishly. Could be closer to TJ Warren.
Draft range: Nos. 3-6
Potential destinations: Celtics, Suns, Kings, Magic

5. Jonathan Isaac
Previous rank: No. 6
FSU | Freshman | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 12
Big Board history: Isaac started at No. 8 in Big Board 1.0, moved up to No. 5 in Big Board 3.0, slid back to No. 6 on version 5.0 and finishes at No. 5.
Ceiling: Versatile forward who can defend three or four spots on the floor. Has great size and length for his position. Can score the ball inside and outside. Plays hard and is a willing defender. Shows a high basketball IQ. He has some Paul George-like qualities to his game.
Floor: He needs to add a lot of strength. He can sometimes be a bit passive on the offensive end. Is he a 3 or a 4? He could end up showing a lot of the same growing pains that Brandon Ingram did as a rookie.
Draft range: Nos. 3-7
Potential destinations: Celtics, Suns, Magic, Wolves

6. De'Aaron Fox
Previous rank: No. 5
Kentucky | Freshman | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 6
Big Board history: Fox was initially ranked No. 9 on Big Board 1.0, moved up to No. 5 in Big Board 5.0 and slides to No. 6 in our final Big Board.
Ceiling: The fastest player in the draft. Super quick with the ball. Explosive athlete. Excellent ball handler. Good court vision. A tough leader. Smart, high-character player. A leader on the floor. Fearless. Reminds a lot of scouts of a young John Wall.
Floor: He really struggled as a shooter, shooting just 25 percent from 3. He has a slight frame and needs to add strength. He's left-hand dominant and needs to learn how to create more with his right hand.
Draft range: Nos. 4-5
Potential destinations: Suns, Kings

7. Dennis Smith
Previous rank: No. 8
NC State | Freshman | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: N/A
Big Board history: Smith began the season ranked No. 4 in Big Board 1.0. He slid to No. 5 in 2.0, moved back up to No. 4 in Big Boards 3.0 and 4.0, slid to No. 8 in Big Board 5.0 and moves up one spot in our final Big Board.
Ceiling: One of the most explosive players in the draft, Smith is an elite athlete and finisher at the rim. He showed an improved jump shot in college. He's very quick off the bounce. He's a good passer who uses his scoring to set up other players. Has an NBA body. Shows a lot of similarities to a young Steve Francis.
Floor: His NC State team was a major disappointment, and scouts really hated his body language on the court. He's coming off a torn ACL during his senior season of high school. Shot just 30 percent on his 2-point jumpers.
Draft range: Nos. 6-10
Potential destinations: Magic, Knicks, Mavericks, Kings

8. Malik Monk
Previous rank: No. 7
Kentucky | Freshman | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 9
Big Board history: Monk was ranked No. 15 in Big Board 1.0, made a huge jump up to No. 4 in Big Board 2.0, slipped to No. 6 in Big Board 3.0, slid to No. 7 in Big Board 5.0 and drops one spot to No. 8 in our final Big Board.
Ceiling: The most explosive scorer in the draft. Excellent shooter with deep range. Elite athlete with quickness and explosive leaping ability. Excellent finisher above the rim. When he gets hot, he can drop 30 points on anyone. He draws a lot of comps to a young Lou Williams.
Floor: He's undersized for his position. He lacks strength and a midrange game. He's a bit one-dimensional. His defense was inconsistent all year. He's streaky as a shooter.
Draft range: Nos. 6-12
Potential destinations: Magic, Wolves, Knicks, Hornets, Pistons

9. Zach Collins
Previous rank: No. 9
Gonzaga | Freshman | Center

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 37
Big Board history: Collins wasn't ranked in the top 30 in Big Board 1.0. He made his Big Board debut at No. 21 in 3.0 in February, moved up to No. 14 in 4.0, bumped up to No. 11 in 5.0 and moved up to No. 9 in 6.0.
Ceiling: Collins is a skilled big man who can score both inside and outside. He's a good rebounder and rim-protector. He's a bouncy athlete. He can shoot the NBA 3 and plays with a scrappiness in the paint. There's an edge to him. He has some Serge Ibaka in him.
Floor: He needs to add a lot of strength if he's going to play center in the NBA. He played a more limited role at Gonzaga as a freshman.
Draft range: Nos. 9-14
Potential destinations: Mavericks, Kings, Hornets, Pistons, Heat

10. Lauri Markkanen
Previous rank: No. 10
Arizona | Freshman | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: N/A
Big Board history: Markkanen started at No. 17 in Big Board 1.0. He moved up to No. 11 in 2.0, went up to No. 9 in 3.0, got as high as No. 7 in 4.0 and slid back to No. 10 in 6.0.
Ceiling: He might be the best 3-point shooter in the draft. Has great size for his position. Very mobile for a big man and a very good shooter from midrange as well. Excellent free throw shooter for a big man, too. He's not nearly as good as the Mavs legend, but there is some Dirk Nowitzki to his game.
Floor: He was a poor rebounder and shot-blocker for his size. Doesn't really like to play physically in the paint. A bit one-dimensional. He gets this year's annual Channing Frye comp.
Draft range: Nos. 7-12
Potential destinations: Wolves, Mavericks, Kings, Hornets, Pistons

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

11. Frank Ntilikina
Previous rank: No. 11
France | Age: 18 | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: N/A
Big Board history: Ntilikina began at No. 5 in Big Board 1.0, dropped to No. 12 in 2.0, moved up to No. 11 in 3.0 and has stayed there the rest of the year.
Ceiling: Ntilikina has great size, length and poise for his position. He has a nice feel for the game and leadership qualities. He's unselfish, works hard and cares about winning. He can defend multiple positions. He improved throughout the season. Has great experience playing significant minutes in France. A better-passing version of George Hill.
Floor: He's still emerging as a shooter. He lacks elite quickness or explosiveness. He's the youngest player in the draft. He's bit of a project.
Draft range: Nos. 8-9
Potential destinations: Knicks, Mavericks

12. Harry Giles
Previous rank: No. 12
Duke | Freshman | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 1
Big Board history: Giles started at No. 2 on our Big Board 1.0. He slid to No. 7 in 2.0, dropped to No. 8 in 3.0, dropped again to No. 13 in 4.0, moved to No. 12 in 5.0 and has stayed there the rest of the year.
Ceiling: He has as much potential as anyone in the draft. Before he tore his ACL at the start of his senior year, many NBA scouts said he was the best high school prospect since LeBron James. He has great size, athleticism and motor for his position. He plays with a high basketball IQ. He's an elite rebounder. High character and work ethic. The Kevin Garnett comps are legitimate.
Floor: He has torn an ACL in both knees. He had another minor knee surgery at the start of his freshman season at Duke. He didn't play well most of the time in college. He looked hesitant to play with full intensity. Will he overcome a fear of injuring his knee again? Has he missed too much critical developmental time as a prospect? He feels like he's one more major injury away from being Greg Oden.
Draft range: Nos. 10-16
Potential destinations: Kings, Hornets, Pistons, Nuggets, Heat, Blazers, Bulls

13. OG Anunoby
Previous rank: No. 13
Indiana | Sophomore | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 1
Big Board history: Anunoby began the season at No. 16, moved up to No. 13 in 2.0, slid to No. 17 after tearing his ACL in 3.0, dropped to No. 20 in 4.0, moved back up to No. 13 in 5.0 and has remained there the rest of the year.
Ceiling: Anunoby is an elite athlete with an NBA body, plus a 7-foot-2 wingspan. He plays hard on both ends of the floor and can defend four positions. He's a good shooter with range, has a good feel for the game and works hard. He's the prototypical 3-and-D prospect. Had he not gotten hurt, he would probably have been a top-10 prospect. He's a bigger, better-shooting version of Jaylen Brown.
Floor: He tore his ACL in January and might not be ready to play again until midseason. His 3-point shooting dipped as a sophomore.
Draft range: Nos. 8-15
Potential destinations: Knicks, Kings, Nuggets, Blazers

14. Donovan Mitchell
Previous rank: No. 15
Louisville | Sophomore | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 43
Big Board history: Mitchell wasn't in the top 30 in Big Board 1.0. He cracked Big Board 3.0 at No. 26, dropped back out of our Big Board in 5.0, moved up to No. 22 in 6.0, jumped up to No. 15 in 7.0 and finishes one spot higher at No. 14 in our final Big board.
Ceiling: He has a ridiculous 6-10 wingspan. Elite athlete. Plays hard on both ends of the court. Can defend the 1 and the 2. Very aggressive. Good body. Proved he could play off the ball at Louisville. Improving shooter with 3-point range. Reminds scouts a bit of Gary Harris.
Floor: He's a bit of a tweener. NBA teams aren't sure where he fits in offensively. Still a bit streaky as a shooter.
Draft range: Nos. 9-16
Potential destinations: Mavericks, Hornets, Pistons, Heat, Bulls

15. Luke Kennard
Previous rank: No. 14
Duke | Sophomore | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 24
Big Board history: Kennard made his Big Board debut at No. 30 in 2.0. He moved up to No. 28 in Big Board 3.0, then No. 15 in Big Board 6.0 and finishes the season there.
Ceiling: One of the two or three best shooters in the draft. High basketball IQ. Excellent toughness. Can play both the 1 and 2 offensively. Excellent in the pick-and-roll. He could end up playing a lot like Rookie of the Year candidate Malcolm Brogdon did for the Bucks this year.
Floor: Good but not elite athlete. Tries hard but not a very effective defender.
Draft range: Nos. 8-14
Potential destinations: Knicks, Kings, Hornets, Pistons, Heat

16. John Collins
Previous rank: No. 16
Wake Forest | Sophomore | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: NR
Big Board history: He made his Big Board debut at No. 24 in 3.0, moved to No. 18 in Big Board 4.0, slid to No. 21 in Big Board 5.0 and moved up to No. 16 in Big Board 7.0.
Ceiling: At 19, very young for a sophomore. Younger than some of the freshmen on this list. Super efficient post player with a number of moves in the paint. Very strong sophomore season at Wake. Good rebounder and shot-blocker. Emerging shooter. Good athlete.
Floor: Needs to continue to develop a 3-point game. Didn't attempt one 3-pointer in college. Lacks great length for his position.
Draft range: Nos. 10-18
Potential destinations: Kings, Hornets, Pistons, Heat, Blazers, Bulls, Pacers

17. Ike Anigbogu
Previous rank: No. 19
UCLA | Freshman | Center

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 60
Big Board history: Anigbogu made his Big Board debut at No. 29 in 4.0, moved up to No. 19 in Big Board 5.0, moved up another spot to No. 18 in 6.0 and moves up one more spot to No. 17 in our final Big Board.
Ceiling: He has a 7-6 wingspan. He's built like a tank and is an aggressive rebounder and shot-blocker. Has good athleticism vertically and reliable hands.
Floor: Very raw offensively. Doesn't move particularly well laterally. He missed the first five games of the season for UCLA with a torn meniscus, an injury that makes some teams wary.
Draft range: Nos. 14-23
Potential destinations: Heat, Bulls, Pacers, Hawks, Nets, Raptors

18. Edrice Adebayo
Previous rank: No. 23
Kentucky | Freshman | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 5
Big Board history: Adebayo started at No. 12 in Big Board 1.0, slid to No. 18 in 2.0, dropped to No. 27 in 3.0, moved back up to No. 25 in 4.0, back up to No. 20 in 5.0, slid to No. 23 in 6.0 and jumps back up to No. 18 in our final Big Board.
Ceiling: He's a freaky athlete for his size, explosive vertically and laterally. He's built like Dwight Howard. Has the ability to guard in the paint and on the perimeter. Finishes above the rim. Can be a good rebounder when he's motivated to be. Hard worker in practice. Didn't flash it at Kentucky, but scouts say he has shown a nice perimeter game in workouts.
Floor: He was unimpressive early on for Kentucky. For a player with his size, athleticism and strength he was just an average rebounder and shot-blocker. There are questions about his overall feel for the game.
Draft range: Nos. 15-22
Potential destinations: Blazers, Bulls, Bucks, Pacers, Nets

19. Justin Patton
Previous rank: No. 21
Creighton | Freshman | Center

ESPN 100 HS ranking: NR
Big Board history: Patton started at No. 13 in Big Board 3.0, dropped to No. 15 in 4.0, slid to No. 19 in 6.0 and finishes the season there.
Ceiling: He shows lots of potential. Was super efficient early for Creighton until the Bluejays' point guard went down with an injury. Has great size for his position. Soft touch from the perimeter. He's a solid rebounder and shot-blocker. Has some range on his jumper.
Floor: He's still very raw. Feel for the game is still developing. Lacks elite lateral speed. A project.
Draft range: Nos. 15-22
Potential destinations: Blazers, Bulls, Bucks, Hawks, Nets

20. Jarrett Allen
Previous rank: No. 18
Texas | Freshman | Center

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 15
Big Board history: Allen began the season at No. 11 in Big Board 1.0, slid to No. 19 in 2.0, moved up to No. 16 in 4.0, went up to No. 14 in 5.0, slid back to No. 18 in 7.0 and finishes at No. 20
Ceiling: Long, athletic big man. Has a huge 7-5 wingspan. Runs the floor very well. Was a good rebounder and solid shot-blocker. Lots of defensive upside. Has the ability to step away from the basket.
Floor: Needs to add a lot of strength. Offensive game still a work in progress.
Draft range: Nos. 16-25
Potential destinations: Bulls, Hawks, Nets, Raptors, Jazz, Magic

J.R. · Jun 22, 2017

21. Tony Bradley
Previous rank: No. 22
UNC | Freshman | Center

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 17
Big Board history: Bradley started at No. 22 in Big Board 2.0, slipped to 30 in 3.0, moved back up to No. 22 in 5.0 and moves up one spot to No. 21 in our final Big Board.
Ceiling: One of the best defensive rebounders in the draft. He has great length and size for his position. Has soft hands. Can carve out space in the lane. Scores very well in various analytics models.
Floor: Is not an elite athlete. Has heavy legs that affect his lateral and vertical explosiveness. Has fought conditioning issues in the past.
Draft range: Nos. 19-24
Potential destinations: Hawks, Blazers, Nets, Raptors, Jazz

22. TJ Leaf
Previous rank: No. 20
UCLA | Freshman | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 13
Big Board history: Leaf started at No. 14 in Big Board 2.0, slipped to No. 15 in 3.0, dropped to No. 17 in 4.0, slid to No. 20 in 7.0 and drops two more spots to No. 22 in on our final Big Board
Ceiling: One of the best pure scorers in the draft. Has a great feel for the game. Can score in the paint or on the perimeter. High basketball IQ. Can handle contact.
Floor: Lacks elite length for his position. Needs to add a lot of strength. Can struggle to score over length. Below-average defender.
Draft range: Nos. 17-26
Potential destinations: Bucks, Pacers, Hawks, Blazers, Thunder, Jazz, Magic

23. Terrance Ferguson
Previous rank: No. 17
Australia | Age: 19 | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 9
Big Board history: Ferguson's stock has been super volatile. He began at No. 9 in Big Board 1.0. He slid to No. 17 in Big Board 2.0 after deciding to skip college to play pro ball in Australia, slid to No. 20 in 3.0, dropped to No. 22 in 4.0, moved back up to No. 18 in 5.0, back up to No. 16 in 6.0, slid to No. 17 in 7.0 and drops back down to No. 23 in our final ranking.
Ceiling: Excellent shooter with deep range. Explosive athlete who can finish above the rim. Good size for his position.
Floor: Streaky. No real midrange game. Not a great defender. Lacks experience.
Draft range: Nos. 17-27
Potential destinations: Bucks, Pacers, Hawks, Thunder, Nets, Raptors, Jazz

24. Anzejs Pasecniks
Previous rank: No. 26
Latvia | Age: 21 | Center

ESPN 100 HS ranking: N/A
Big Board history: Pasecniks made his Big Board debut at No. 26 in 7.0.
Ceiling: Skilled big man who's comfortable in the paint or on the perimeter offensively. Good shooter with range. Nice touch around the basket. Great size for his position. Productive season in Europe.
Floor: Needs to get stronger. Not a good rebounder or shot-blocker. Might lack toughness.
Draft range: Nos. 19-29
Potential destinations: Hawks, Blazers, Thunder, Nets, Raptors, Jazz, Spurs

25. Jonah Bolden
Previous rank: N/A
Australia | Age: 21 | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: N/A
Big Board history: Big Board 8.0 is the first time Bolden has cracked the top 30 this season.
Ceiling: Versatile forward who can do a little of everything. Good athlete. Long. Plays above the rim. Good ball handler and playmaker for his size. Shot 42 percent from 3 in the Adriatic league this year on the way to winning rookie of the year honors in Serbia.
Floor: Streaky. His confidence waxes and wanes. Doesn't like physicality in the paint. Needs to add strength and toughness. Didn't play well during his one season at UCLA.
Draft range: Nos. 21-35
Potential destinations: Thunder, Nets, Jazz, Magic, Lakers, Spurs, Hawks

26. Justin Jackson
Previous rank: No. 25
UNC | Junior | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 8
Big Board history: Jackson cracked several Big Boards during his freshman and sophomore years but didn't break into this year's Big Board until 5.0 when he came in at No. 25. He has stayed steady there the rest of the year before falling one spot in the final Big Board.
Ceiling: Jackson has one of the best midrange games in college basketball. Has a lethal floater. Much improved as a 3-point shooter as a junior. Has good length and size for his position. Good feel for the game.
Floor: He's not a great athlete, especially laterally. Can still be very streaky from 3-point range. Doesn't always play with a great motor. Scouts are worried his shooting might regress back to the mean.
Draft range: Nos. 17-29
Potential destinations: Bucks, Pacers, Hawks, Thunder, Jazz, Magic, Lakers, Spurs

27. Frank Jackson
Previous rank: No. 27
Duke | Freshman | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 10
Big Board history: Jackson made his Big Board debut at No. 27 in 7.0.
Ceiling: One of the best athletes in the draft. Explosive leaper. Good scorer who can get his shot off anywhere. Good 3-point shooter. Good length. Reminds teams of a young Jerryd Bayless.
Floor: Lacks great size for his position. Not a true point guard.
Draft range: Nos. 24-31
Potential destinations: Jazz, Magic, Lakers, Spurs, Hawks,

28. D.J. Wilson
Previous rank: No. 28
Michigan | Junior | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: NR
Big Board history: Wilson landed on his first Big Board in 5.0 at No. 26.
Ceiling: Excellent athlete. Runs the floor like a guard. Explosive leaper. Good shooter with 3-point range. Solid shot-blocker. Good size and length for his position.
Floor: Can play soft. Doesn't like contact in the paint. Below-average rebounder for his size. Very inconsistent.
Draft range: Nos. 24-35
Potential destinations: Jazz, Magic, Blazers, Lakers, Spurs, Hawks

29. Tyler Lydon
Previous rank: N/A
Syracuse | Sophomore | Forward

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 76
Big Board history: Lydon started at No. 22 in Big Board 1.0. He slid to No. 23 in 2.0, fell to No. 26 in Big Board 4.0 and then dropped out of the Big Board until cracking it again in our Final Big Board 8.0
Ceiling: Good athlete. Can really shoot. Good rebounder and shot-blocker. Solid passer.
Floor: Stuck in between the 3 and the 4. Didn't develop the way scouts hoped he would. Needs to add strength. Questions about him defensively. Wasn't as aggressive hunting for his shot as scouts wanted.
Draft range: Nos. 23-35
Potential destinations: Raptors, Jazz, Magic, Blazers, Lakers, Spurs, Hawks, Suns

30. Josh Hart
Previous rank: N/A
Villanova | Senior | Guard

ESPN 100 HS ranking: No. 92
Big Board history: Hart makes his first Big Board appearance in 8.0.
Ceiling: Jack of all trades. Above average at just about everything -- shooting, ballhandling, defense and passing. Has had two very impressive years at Villanova.
Floor: Master of none. He's not an elite athlete. Lacks great size for position. Doesn't do any one thing at an elite level.
Draft range: Nos. 24-35
Potential destinations: Jazz, Magic, Lakers, Spurs, Hawks

Next five in
Jordan Bell, PF, Jr., Oregon
Isaiah Hartenstein, PF, Germany
Jawun Evans, PG, So., Oklahoma State
Ivan Rabb, PF, So., Cal
Alec Peters, SF, Sr., Valparaiso

jogo · Jun 22, 2017

J.R. is my hero!

Thanks.

MONON · Jun 22, 2017

What tha heck would we do without J. R.?

Juxtaposed Jolt · Jun 22, 2017

Does the draft begin at 6 CT (1st pick in / around 6:05 CT) or do they talk for like, 30 minutes a la "pregame show?" I need to plan accordingly!

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