Its kind of a shame that no matter how well Ted plays, he wont make the opening roster. Kind of a teaser to what we might get to see in September or next year.
There's zero chance he makes the opening day roster, but I think some of you are being overly pessimistic thinking he is gonna spend most of the year in the minors. Back in 2015 Correa hadn't even played above A ball yet and he was called up 2 months into the season, and I imagine Tucker will be up around the same (not coincidentally). I'm not even positive they will wait that long, they may just wait the 2 weeks or so to get the extra year.
I think it totally depends on how Fisher, Davis, Reed, even Gonzalez and Gattis are doing. Their preference will be to keep him in the minors until next year. There really is no rush. At the soonest, I would think late summer to give him plenty of time to get ready for the post season if they think they need him.
I think the big difference is that in 2015, no one was blocking Correa - his coming up was likely a huge positive for the team. With this team, there are plenty of legit MLB players that can take that roster space and those at-bats. So Tucker taking MarGo or Gattis or Yuli ABs is not an upgrade the same way as Correa taking whoever-he-replaced's at-bats.
I get where you’re coming from, but I disagree a little bit. Given Tucker plays OF (more spots) and DH there’s plenty of at bats to be taken from some combination of Fisher / Gattis / Margo / Reddick etc. Hopefully all of those guys start off red hot but it’s unlikely.
If Tucker is as good as this front office hopes he is, it is of little to no concern that he takes AB’s away from those guys. Gonzalez’ likely regression to the mean will probably open up enough everyday AB’s... Tucker is likely to follow the Correa/Bregman pathway.
Sure - it's not a concern and they are likely better with him up than not. But everything is a tradeoff. When you bring Correa up to replace random replacement-level scrub, you're sacrificing a future year of Correa but getting maybe 3-5 extra wins as a result (and a playoff berth, as it turned out). When you bring up Tucker to replace Gattis/Yuli/Margo/etc, you're sacrificing a future year of Tucker but only getting maybe 0.5 or 1 extra win as a result. The tradeoff isn't nearly as good. Plus, there has to be a roster spot as well. Barring injury, you're having to get rid of a legit MLB player (or Fisher, if he sucks) as opposed to an irrelevant replacement level player (anyone know who went down went Correa came up? I don't.) The 25th man on this roster is a lot better than the 25th man on the 2015 or 2016 teams. For a team facing financial armaggedon in a few years, every year of club control has a significant amount of value. Even more so for a team that probably doesn't care that much about 1 or 2 regular season wins this year.
Luhnow's said he's not making the team, so I see no reason to expect him to. I also am much more willing to give Luhnow the benefit of the doubt and trust his plans, he's more than earned it. This isn't 2007 where Pupura's sending Hunter Pence back to the minors after batting .571 for a variety of reasons.
I think Fisher has earned the right to play LF to start the season. Of course Reddick had a stellar last season. And Springer is well a near super star In The OF. Luhnow will find a spot for Kyle Tucker that will maximize his usage. Be it as an injury call up, because someone is in a steep slump, or a trade opens up a spot. Right now, it’s about being patient.
So, you’re basically saying they should call him up only when he’s desperately needed? Or when the team has already lost a star player or two, and thus he will make a difference? At least your backwards logic is consistent.... same sort of argument you made when you were against them upgrading the starting rotation last year (“unlikely to get much of an upgrade from Fiers...”) They’re going to have an upgradeable spot in the outfield, even before considering injury probabilities. He’s not replacing Yuli, Margo, or Gattis (they could all be in the lineup with him) Also, presuming he adjusts well to AA... and then AAA, any more time in the minors for somebody of his expected pedigree, is a waste (as it was with Correa and Bregman). Since this team started winning, this front office has been fairly consistent/deliberate on when and how it’s promoted it’s studs (and realistically, it’s only been Springer, Correa, and Bregman). If Tucker continues to progress and the team feels he’s ready to be an everyday player in the big leagues... he’s going to get promoted. There’s likely to be an underperforming position player or pitcher that would be sent down as a response. And while they know full/well that they’re not going to be able to afford to keep everybody... they also know how rare it is to have a WS winning nucleus all together, in their prime, and all on cheap contracts. They know they have to optimize this current team any way they can... hence why you trade for a Gerrit Cole even if he’s only a marginal upgrade on the starting staff’s win potential. Hence why they’re going to always be looking to add at the deadline, even if any player they get is limited in what they add in wins. Hence why they’ll promote any phenoms they have on the cusp.
Very weird conversation. Seems apparent Tucker will be up if he deserves a call up around when Astros think Super Two is not an issue. Not Astros fault MLB CBA is convoluted and it is highly in their interest to so. Astros likely want Tucker to be on playoff roster so upgrade being smaller than it was for Correa likely won't matter once financial implications of Super Two have passed.
" (anyone know who went down went Correa came up? " Jonathan "Butt Slide" Villar was playing SS in June 2015 when Correa came up. The Astros had just dropped 3 games straight to the Blue Jays and one to the Orioles before Correa's debut. How Fangraphs factors butt-sliding in fWAR and dWAR projections, I am not sure.
Actually, though, Jake Buchanan was sent down to make room for Correa on the 25 man roster. Villar stayed on the team, just changed to more of a utility role.
Hopefully, I didn’t make it weird. I’m with you on this viewpoint. If Tucker can help this year, bring him up (after super 2, extra year, whatever). Never thought i’d see a standpoint from somebody advocating for not calling him up at all this year... but I guess if that same person was vouching for Mike Fiers to make playoff starts, anything’s possible.
Looking back at Correa's debut (https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA201506080.shtml), I had forgotten that his first hit (and RBI) was off of Chris Sale. What an introduction to major league pitching.
LMJ, yes, Reed,,, not so much. But, he is a perfect example of how consistent this front office is regarding call-ups. If you’re “ready”, and its not 2013 and you’re not intentionally trying to tank vis-a-vis Springer, they’ll call guys up on a pretty set track schedule.
