If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

I still think the Keuchel/Miley contract will not be overly competitive.

These guys are great in stretches... but the expectation is that they're going to hit some bumps/snags over the course of a long season, let alone possibly get injured given the miles on their arms.

For a contending team on the cusp, it makes sense... but even then, only for a short-term deal.

 

I hadn't weighed in yet in this totally premature thread, so I figured yall needed a knowledge bomb.

 

There’s no way he walks on my watch

 

I hate to lose cole. But just don’t see how we afford him. A rotation of jv, cole, Greinke and McCullers would be awesome. Find another value sign like Miley was for spot 5 and the dynastic run likely continues. Cole signs with the angels and they have a 1 , 2 of cole and otani. Gulp. They will make some noise next year.

 

5 potential free agent targets:
Wheeler
Odorizzi
Gibson
Bumgarner
Bailey

5 potential trade targets:
J Gray
Ray
Boyd
Bundy
Duffy

I’m excited to see who they recreate next. They’ll lose ~9 fWAR from their starting pitching but should gain ~3 back between McCullers and increased contributions from young arms like Urquidy and Whitley. If they can find 2 arms to combine for 6 war it’ll be a push.

 

You are right. Depending on how McCullers recovers, the Astros already have a viable #3 in McCullers for next year. On many occasions McCullers was digging out his Ace status card, but would keep getting injured. But i fo think McCullers can be an elite elite pitcher.

Getting to keep Cole is a huge goal, and would be awesome, but how can the Astros afford to keep him and all the other talent?

 

Serious question: If there is no Salary Cap in MLB (like in the NFL and the NBA); why is there a Luxury Tax for the MLB teams?

 

2 main reasons:

1. Because the owners want a salary cap but the players won’t let them have it. The luxury tax functions as a de facto salary cap because the penalties are so excessive.

2. Because everyone wants more competitive teams. Without the luxury tax, teams like NY, LA, Boston, and Chicago would have huge competitive advantages by being able to outbid any team for all the best free agents.

 

He's pitched well in the NL but he's also lost another MPH on his sinker and his "fastball" and as he ages it will progressively go farther south. He's still going to command a huge payday, but with his stuff and age I just do see anything past a 2 year deal. He wont be coming back here and I'm very fine with that.

I'd love it if we went after Gray but he's going to have a lot of suitors and we know Lunhow stays away from bidding wars.

 

Love this interview, Cole just gets it. Seems to have a deep appreciation of the organization.

 

I would pay him whatever he wanted if it were only for 5 seasons. Long term contracts don't work. Look how Detroit and Arizona have to pay us to cover part of Verlander and Greinke's contracts even thought they are still top of their game.

 

True. But there are contracts that I wish had been longer also (Morton, Keuchel).

 

Keuchel was on a rookie contract so it didn't count. No one predicted Morton would turn into Charlie F'ing Morton when we signed him and we still could have kept him if we were willing to pony up the dough. Cole is going to get one of the highest salaries per year in the MLB. I just wouldn't want to be on the hook for that salary for more than 5 years.

 

Nowadays those teams that give out 7+ years to pay a guy into his late 30s have factored in the decline and are essentially just spreading out the money to lessen the tax hit. Had Verlander or Greinke won a World Series for their previous teams those orgs would in no way regret giving out those lengthy deals. So I would be fine with Houston giving out a long deal if the value overall was there. I just don’t think Houston can afford Cole, full stop. A team from New York, LA, or Chicago will pay him. Same with Correa. And probably Alvarez in 6+ years.

Houston should try like hell to extend Springer 3-4 seasons. Otherwise their expiring contracts will be for players who are either very replaceable or far too expensive.

 

If we had the Astros medicals we wouldn't of matched Morton's contract. Even in hindsight. From the armchair...

 

I think a lot of what we do, or can do, rests with the outcome of the 2019 season. Obviously, if we win another WS, there will be more willingness ($$$) to go out on a limb with some contracts.

 

I think winning it all would make extending Springer a lot easier and more likely. I do not think even winning the title would make Cole affordable for Houston. My total guess is that a championship adds $30-50M in profits over the subsequent 12-18 months. Now, there’s likely a revenue bump that lasts forever due to brand improvement, but I don’t think it’s enough to combat the luxury tax implications of the Astros going over to sign Cole.

 

Some here sound like its as easy as just deciding to keep him (Cole). Just spend the money, he is worth it!

If it only was that simple.

Agree regarding Springer.

 

I'm still standing behind the comments of there is a lot riding on winning it all this year. Crane is hungry to keep a winning product on the field and none of us know how far he is willing to spend. He and the other investors aren't going to throw money out unless there is another WS at play.

I'll also say after hearing Cole speak yesterday, you can hear/see he wants to be here. I don't think it was lip service and he is high on Houston. I dont know if he will be here next year but I don't count Houston out at all.

 

What did he say? I missed it.