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Harden is the _ best player in the NBA today

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Clown Baby, Aug 11, 2017.

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Harden is the _ best player

  1. 1st

    79 vote(s)
    24.1%
  2. 2nd

    44 vote(s)
    13.4%
  3. 3rd

    98 vote(s)
    29.9%
  4. 4th

    53 vote(s)
    16.2%
  5. 5th

    30 vote(s)
    9.1%
  6. 6th

    9 vote(s)
    2.7%
  7. 7th

    1 vote(s)
    0.3%
  8. 8th

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. 9th

    2 vote(s)
    0.6%
  10. 10th or Worse

    12 vote(s)
    3.7%
  1. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Because Jordan is one of the greatest scorers of all time and a great defender to go along with his killer instinct in clutch situation. LBJ is the closest to holding a candle to Jordan in recent history and he still falls short IMO.
     
  2. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Jordan vs modern player debates are pointless. The three point shot has changed the stats so much that these "so and so is a better offensive player" are all technically true arguments but don't have a lot of meaning to them.
     
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  3. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    A midrange is still a midrage is still a midrange. Even though the league has transitioned to long distance shooting, that does not make Jordan's midrange game worth less somehow. If anything, it makes his amazing midrange game even more impressive. This is not even getting to his game at the rim either. Thinking about it, Jordan had one of the best midrange game in NBA history. How would that translate today in an era where defenses are designed to stop shots at the rim and perimeter?

    Point is, if we invented a time machine and brought prime Jordan into today's league of soft D, Jordan with his midrange and finishing ability would be beyond bonkers.
     
  4. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    If Jordan played today and didn’t shoot 3s his teams would lose. The math is the math is the math.

    Harden is a better offensive producer because his 10 3 point shots per game produce more points than 10 Jordan mid range shots.

    This is why the statistical comparisons are pointless. Jordan is better than harden but the stats on offense say otherwise because Harden is getting extra credit
     
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  5. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Umm... no? It's about points per possession. Having a high PPP ideally means finding the best shot per possession. For most players, that's a dunk/layup followed by a free throw followed by a 3pt followed by a midrange shot not because a midrange shot is inherently bad but because most players are mediocre to terrible at hitting that shot.

    Most players struggle to hit above 40% at that range and that's when a 3pt shot becomes more valuable. Jordan (and CP3) are not most players. Jordan (and CP3) was brilliant at shooting the midrange jumper. That translates to a high PPP. Does a 3pt shot inflate PPP? Yes, of course it does. Does that diminish a high PPP coming off midrange shots? Absolutely not.
     
    #285 chenjy9, Feb 21, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
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  6. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Yes, hardens point per possession will be higher if Jordan doesn’t shoot any 3s. He’s shooting close to 40% from 3.

    Are you disagreeing with me that the massive increase in the three point shot has changed statistical comparisons?
     
  7. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    I disagree with this completely. I am saying Jordan's prime PPP have been just as good if not better than Harden despite Harden's being inflated by his free throw rate and volume 3pt shooting.

    The gap between 40% and 38.4% doesn't sound like much, but that's actually a pretty big gap when you are shooting as many threes as Harden does.

    I am disagreeing "that the massive increase in the three point shot has changed statistical comparisons" because it is a blanket statement and also inaccurate in the grand scheme of volume possessions for elite scorers. It does change statistical comparisons for non-elite players. People like Ariza or Moute or Tucker or Beverley benefit from 3pt shots drastically inflating their otherwise very mediocre PPP. Basically, the honest line of thinking is "if you suck at a 2, I would rather you shoot a 3."

    Then we factor in variance. 3pt shooting naturally has a lot of variance, more for non-elite shooters and less for elite shooters (Curry, Klay, Durant, CP3, maybe Harden now) and at 36-38% shooting percentages, this means higher highs and lower lows. Going back to guys like CP3 or Jordan who would convert on 2pt shots at an extremely consistent high percentage, this difference becomes marginal at best.

    NOW, one place Harden does have the edge over Jordan IMO is in the playmaking department. I honestly believe Harden has the superior vision and passing (though Jordan is no slouch here either when he is looking to pass). This leads back to my earlier statement that for non-elite players, stats have changed. Harden has the ability to generate more points per possession because non-elite players are now being utilized better.
     
    #287 chenjy9, Feb 21, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  8. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Rough math here. I took the 13 seasons Jordan was in Chicago. Added up all the shots he took from 3, shots from 2 and free throw attempts. I then divided that by total points scored in those 13 seasons for a rough Points per possession. I did the same for James harden up until now in his career.

    Jordan has a ppp of 1.01789801
    Harden has a ppp of 1.02344728

    *these are not real -ppp- stats* Just a similar type stat I conjured up real quick
     
    #288 BigMaloe, Feb 21, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  9. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Also @chenjy9 harden and Jordan have the exact fta/gm for their careers at 8.2/gm.

    Jordans highest per game attempts is 11.9 while hardens highest is 10.9
     
  10. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    13 years of Jordan also includes his down year after taking a year off to play baseball and the beginning of his twilight years. Even with that huge disadvantage, his PPP is still comparable. Lets all think what that means for Jordan's prime years? That is some bonkers PPP.
     
  11. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    FTr is a much more accurate metric to go by when comparing FT attempts between players. Hell, even FTA per 100 possessions is a better metric to go by. FTr = FTA per FGA by the way. Jordan is consistently under 0.5 and Harden is consistently over 0.5.
     
  12. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    I think your under selling his “down year”. He was still really good. It was his least efficient tho.

    Fwiw it also includes hardens rookie year which was also his worst efficiency and somewhat similar.

    Anyways that was just a quick interject into the topic at debate. Just crunches some numbers and overall is a lot easier. I’d prefer taking out okc and even the 95 year. I tagged you only because of the ft comment.

    Overall, the fact we even entertain this comparison is remarkable.
     
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  13. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Yes obviously. I understand statistics and advanced metrics. Y’all where having a discussion on ppp. I just crunches some numbers for a rough calculation.

    Obviously harden is getting help from the location of his shots but it shouldn’t be a knock.

    Again, even being able to compare the 2 respectfully is amazing and speaks to how phenomenal James is. We don’t have this talk if we had jimmy butler, instead it would get squashed immediately
     
  14. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Hence why I always stood in his corner on arguments and defend him against his haters. Harden is an incredible player. When all is send and done, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up the 2nd or 3rd best SG in the league. To say that Jordan's scoring is worth less or that it wouldn't translate into today's 3pt happy teams though is inaccurate.
     
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  15. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    It's not a knock against Harden at all. I am a firm believer that you always go for the best shot available. FT's for a very accurate FT shooter is hard to be as a best shot. The only thing that is better is an uncontested layup/dunk. The discussion was simply that Jordan's scoring can easily be compared to today's scoring, because we do have advanced stats such as PPP among others to make comprehensive comparisons and that his scoring is easily as high or higher than Harden's despite Harden taking more 3's due to how PPP works out over a large amount of shots.
     
  16. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    I don’t think it’s fair to compare the eras.

    I mean harden is so good at the 3 this year because of practice and sever repetition. In Jordan’s era maybe he would have focused and mastered the midrange ala Jordan.

    If Jordan was in this era maybe instead of focusing and practicing midrange he worked on his 3s.

    Harden holds the edge comfortably in ts% and they are practically the same in efg% although harden overall holds the high mark again.

    I don’t know how to formulate or find ppp for Jordan. And I don’t have hardens either rn. But hardens would be even higher considerring how many and 1s he gets
     
  17. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Also worth noting, that as ball dominate harden is and has been he is not nearly as ball dominate as Jordan was. Jordan’s usage easily eclipses harden significantly and consistently.

    He also attempted waaaay more shots per 100 possessions. Albeit this is offset some by harden attempting more fts per 100
     
  18. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Let me ask you this; despite 3pt shots and FT's inflating Harden's TS% and EFG%, Jordan typically had higher PPG, FG%, and PPP when looking at their first 9 years, so what does that tell you about how efficient his midrange game is as well as his ability to finish inside through much tougher D? It tells you his game was very efficient and would absolutely wreck havoc today. Now consider if they called fouls on Jordan as they currently do for Harden. It is easy to see that his FTA would rise even higher. You can compare between eras IMO, you just also have to consider the entire picture.
     
  19. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Not really, in Jordan's early years yes, but that's what happens when a team drafts its only superstar. It dropped like a rock when they got Pippen. In his prime years, they were in the low 30's just like Harden's basically is since he became a Rocket. Harden should also have a comparable number of possessions, but way more of his ends in passes or FT's instead of a FGA.
     
  20. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Jordan’s mid range was amazing. He was great and shot around 55% from 2 for a long part of his career. That’s awesome and 1.1 pps.
    I’m not here to defend harden against Jordan or to even say Jordan wouldn’t be dominate in this era because he would. But comparing Wilt to Hakeem is a similar comparison. You really just can’t compare the eras. It’s not fair for either. But would be vastly different players from what they practiced growing up and worked on as pros.

    His usage didn’t drop like a rock with pippen btw, it was pretty consistently around 33% for his career with some deviations here and there.
     

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