Harden 2018... still a doubter???

Note the question markets in the title. I definitely got into it with some last year regarding Harden's upside as a #1 guy come playoff time. I have a bet with someone on Harden leading the team to a championship in 4 years... 3 years left.... if Lebron comes it'd clearly be Lebron leading the team to a championship, but I'll pay up nonetheless if it happens

I ABSOLUTELY get that when CP3 went down, we once again rolled the ball with Harden plus "meh".

That said ... tl;dr - I feel generally the same about Harden as last year, am again generally disappointed about his playoff performances given his regular season MVP-esque performance, and still doubt his ability to lead the team as the #1 guy.

I'll spoiler the LONGER version:

Spoiler

Issues about his game from last year, in no particular order, and how it can be "exposed' in the playoffs.

- Relies too much on the 3 point shot, including taking more when he's not hitting. After this year... pretty much the same, if not worse.

- Relies too much on getting fouled. After this year... even worse. Went from 10.3 FTAs per 36 minutes in the regular season down to 7.7 per 36 minutes in the post season... It just is what it is. I ABSOLUTELY think he got shafted on calls. But if it hasn't been clear from rule changes the league has made to eliminate "Harden-fouls" in the offseasons, it should be clear from the #s. He's not going to get all the calls he wants/needs in the playoffs.

- Way too turnover prone. After this year... improved DRASTICALLY. I give him lots of credit for this. For the most part, he cut WAY WAY down on stupid passes and silly turnovers just dribbling or whatnot. Of course... AS MUCH AS ANYTHING was that even though his usage was still way high, CP3 had ballhandling duties a lot and CP3 rubbed off on him. UNFORTUNATELY, 9 turnovers and 5 turnovers in the last two games without CP3. 6 turnovers in game 5. So in the last three games of the series he averaged nearly 7 to/game, and had more to's than assists. But I'll give him a pass on that because to the extent the turnovers got bad again, they coincided with the rest of his teammates being horrible again.

- Defense. After this year... this has improved... though not drastically. I think he got better at doing the things well defensively that he does well. Guarding bigs, getting in the passing lanes occasionally, playing solid team defense, and as much as anything recognizing his liabilities and smartly finding ways to compensate (hence steals like the pick on KD one on one). But it is what it is. He still doesn't have the lateral quickness on the perimeter.. is still going to get beat by Shaun Livingston easily on the perimeter, much less great scorers. the additions of CP3, Tucker and Mbah Moute culturally helped here.

- the GSW phenomenon. This isn't particular to Harden and not an indictment on his game, but its still rolling along. About to be 15-1 in their last 16 playoff series. All still in their prime.

Some things that were really disappointing this playoffs:

- The efficiency. This is the hallmark of Harden's game. His 54.8% TS% is tied for the second lowest in his playoff career. This is a function of the crappy 3 point shooting and fewer FT trips. In either case, it went from a near career best of 61.9% in the regular season down to that 54.8%.

- The game speed. I mean, highlight reel ISO plays are cool, and I promise you that I root for him and the Rockets as much as all of you. But I just don't see how I can be a fair fan and not say the slowness of the halfcourt game and constant dribble ISO is infuriating as f***?? Cause it is. Last year it was there too, but the offense had more of a free flow to it. I get that the #s bear out this offense as historically great and better than last year. I get that a slowed down, fewer possesions for the GSW game, limit turnovers approach makes sense on paper. And I get that even though they are semi rushed shots with 3 seconds left, this approach does INDEED still get lots of great looks for Harden or his teammates. It's just SUPER infuriating to watch.... Beyond that though... the guy still refuses to move off ball. This was the big ? coming into the season. Would he move off ball with CP3 handling. The thought was "no" and that it'd be detrimental. In reality, the answer was "no" but that actually worked out very very well. I get it, it worked. Just again, super infuriating.

- The variance. I mean, this isn't particular to this year's playoffs. And in truth, it is impossible to top last years with Game 6 against the Spurs. But while not as singular game pronounced, on the whole, it was just as crazy. Every game 1 was insanely good. Every game 2 was pretty bad. Every series had at least 1 real clunker of a game. Multiple games with GameScores under 8. Six games with 25% or less 3 point % on 10+ three pointers. On the whole this continues the trend of Harden having statistically meaningful lower PER in the playoffs then in the regular season. His playoff PER this year was 25.0. INSANELY good. His career best. Still, down 16% from his regular season. I never did like a full statistical analysis on it, but did do some work I posted about last offseason that indeed supports the fact that absent a select few, most superstars see some degradation in stats in the playoffs... BUT that Harden's decline is larger than most... which continued this year.

- The "super big game" performances. He's not always horrible, but he's rarely great. And usually does have some horrible-ness to it. Game 6 against the Spurs. Game 5/6 and 7 this year against the Warriors weren't kind to him. Game 5 against the Jazz wasn't kind to him this year. Game 6 against the Clippers. Game 5 against the Warriors that year. He was great in Game 6 against Portland. That's probably the only super big back against the wall or tied series payoff game where I can say he's been great (though they lost that game, partly because of some very odd Harden defensive "coaching" as the ball was in-bounded).

- The Harden vs. CP3 debate. Hey, CP3 has his own problems. Dude can't stay healthy in the playoffs. But on the whole, whereas it was Harden that was the clear alpha dog of the team in the regular season, it felt increasingly as the playoffs went on that it was CP3 that was really "leading" the charge in terms of gutting out important wins and impacting the game from that perspective.

- Did Harden + CP3 "really" work? Ok, I get it, this sounds dumb. Harden will win the MVP. CP3 made it the furthest of his career. The Rockets won 65 games, got further than they have since they won the championship. The answer is yes. That said, just pointing out... I honestly am struggling to remember off the top of my head a game where both Harden and CP3 were simply GREAT. It's like they took turns with one being GREAT and the other being pretty solid or bad throughout the season and definitely into the playoffs. This works out because you always have one superstar playing at superstar levels, and another that needs to be respected putting in production even if not superstar level production. But given the GSW phenomenon, I'd have hoped it would have worked better when both were on the court at the same time. This plays into the off ball movement issue.

I mean... I ABSOLUTELY get that Harden is EXTREMELY hard to judge because fact of the matter is GSW do exist, and the Rockets roster even 100% healthy isn't that roster. And when you lose CP3, you're ****ed. Harden didn't go 0-8 and scoreless in game 7. He didn't light the house on fire, though.

I CERTAINLY get that Harden is here for the long haul. He's "our" superstar, and will win this year's MVP.

I INDEED get the fact that Harden isn't even remotely close to the only flawed superstar.

Still... as I was mostly remembered for being a "Greek Freak" lover at some point.. lol, so to go with him (but it'd certainly be the same with AD for example) ... I STILL think, assuming health, I'd move Harden for some, not all of these other superstars or young budding superstars.

Not because these other guys are all better than Harden. Harden is a regular season winning system of himself in ways that some of these guy aren't. But because I still believe Harden will not "lead" a team to a ring. He didn't lead the team to gutsy wins against GSW - CP3 did. if Lebron joins, Harden won't lead the team to post-season wins next year either, regardless of his regular season. And assuming health (eg. of CP3 and EG), all those guys add dimensions to the game that Harden doesn't because of his refusal to (i) move off the ball, (ii) stop shooting threes when he isn't hitting, (iii) mesh with CP3 better, and inability to (iv) play solid perimeter defense. When I consider EG is in NO WAY Harden, but is a better spot up shooter and can drive to the lane, though has no passing ability, but can also play some defense, and could plug into the SG role.. well, to me, a lineup of:

- CP3, EG, Lebron, Giannis, Capela just seems more effective on both sides of the ball

And I want to think differently. because I know, absolutely, Greek Freak isn't the player Harden is. And heck, he wasn't amazing Game 7 against the Celtics. But I don't need him to be. He wouldn't need the usage, he plays much much better defense. Moves without the ball. "Fit wise", with a CP3 and a Lebron, it just makes more sense in my head.

Or the point... first we add CP3, who actually seemed to be the more important alpha as the games got "bigger". Next our hopes are on adding Lebron. And sure, even the biggest Harden fans recognize that Lebron is better. But the comment is, increasingly it's not just about adding other HOF level talent, but rather adding talent that takes leadership and "alpha" responsibilities off Harden in games that count.

 

We didn't win a championship. CP3 got injured as expected. But that's not the point.

If we would have gotten past GSW, it would have been because of CP3 and not Harden. That's how we got up 3-2. Not that Harden was bad or didn't contribute to meaningfully winning games, just that it was CP3 that was coming through and his style of play and influence on the team that led to those gritty wins... as described in the spoiler

 

I just don't understand why some people are so cool with close but not quite??

He lost his star teammate that was the #1 guy and reason for them being up in the series 3-2.
It's not arguable that they won games 4/5 on the backs of CP3, and Harden wasn't good in the game 2 win either. This is all discussed in the spoiler.

Also the flaws of other superstars are discussed in the spoiler as well.

Not even close to the point being argued in the post....

 

I watched pretty much every game this season.

harden had an amazing stretch in game 4 particular in the late 1st quarter into the second quarter.

CP3 won those games though.

Not sure about 2nd best player these playoffs. AD was better. GSW players have been better (but they have the built in ?? of how good would they be on worse teams).

 

I generally noted this. He was worse in the playoffs unquestionably... but even the greatest usually are a bit worse ... though the greatest of the greatest are just good whenever and sometimes better in the playoffs.

I'm not going to lay out the various things I thought he did worse in the playoffs then the regular season and as bad if not worse even than last playoffs on the whole... it's in the spoiler.

For the most part, relative to team success, my point was more about overall in the playoffs, game 1's aside, Harden was worse in the playoffs while still having CP3, and most specifically, in the second half of the huge wins against GSW in games 4/5, it was CP3 that drove the ship.

Agree generally, except to note that in this league it may not be just fine. To the point where "leadership" seems to have switched to CP3 this year and the hope is will switch even further to Lebron next year.

Hate these types of comments. Maybe... who knows??

In either case, would have been because of CP3...

 

I think you mis-understand.

The concept here isn't that Harden is bad, or isn't part of winning, or extremely important to winning.

This is the 2018 NBA. You aren't winning a ring without at least 2 superstars... at least.

It's about CP3 being the #1 alpha leader in those games to take home the win, and Harden's performances relative to the regular season.

AD was better. His team wasn't better. But he was. Even against GSW.