Every fantasy draft is just a marketplace. You're looking to invest most of your capital in proven production (early rounds) and then locate undervalued assets in the subsequent rounds. RB is always the position that inevitably will be scarce in any draft. Since all drafts are using a dictated market structure (pre-draft rankings or ADP) your goal is to leverage the default rankings against other teams. "Boring" players like Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree usually offer value for where you can get them. People have a tendency to overvalue rookies. Joe Mixon isn't likely to immediately become RB1 but he's being drafted based on potential. It is important to leverage potential with consistency. Also, you really have to stop looking at season-long as a whole and manage it like the weekly game that it is. Dissect every matchup. You may end up drafting a WR early who ends up with 4 bad matchups, rendering him unstartable for 25% of your season. Every decision you make should be matchup based. One way to avoid having to look at matchups in detail is to create a stable floor with your WR selections. If you don't nail your WR picks, you aren't going to have league winning potential, WR is always the most important position to draft. We're seeing a false sense of security with RBs this year because last year was an outlier for RB production. Bell, Johnson and Elliott all hit. Todd Gurley was a disaster, and most of the RBs taken after those top 4 gave mixed results. RB1 is a dying concept and this still remains constant. Even though we had great RB production in 2016, league-wide running attempts again decreased, and more and more teams are opting for 3WR sets and RB committees with defined roles (Goalline backs, pass catching backs, and between the 20s runners). Drafting WR heavy isn't a mandate though, it is a strategy. Most people draft based on value and BPA, and it is important to note that the marketplace is VERY fluid and constantly changing. Ty Montgomery was going in the 4th round just a couple weeks ago. Now he is falling fast. Information changes the structure CONSTANTLY. When you approach season-long fantasy from a weekly perspective, it makes sense to grab AT LEAST 5 WRs who are capable of WR1 production at least 60% of the time. This is all based on where you end up picking though, naturally. If you can get a Bell, DJ, or even a Gordon, Ajiji, Freeman at cost, then it isn't a bad idea to have a bellcow RB at the forefront of your roster. Knowing the matchups each week with a strong stable of WRs will give you a massive edge. Drafting a guy like Crabtree or Fitzgerald is a safe move, those are guys who will usually produce decent numbers but won't blow up and give you 30+ pt games. These picks aren't sexy because these guys don't really offer the "blow up" potential other WRs can that can win you weeks. The problem with those "high-risk" picks is that you have to understand when to play them. DeSean Jackson, Ted Ginn Jr, etc. These are guys who are going to have 2-3 weeks where they may be the top-scoring WR that week. But they are quite volatile because of their roles in their offenses. You wouldn't be inclined to play these guys when they are facing a very tough secondary that forces underneath throws. So, know you matchup, and secondly KNOW YOUR PERSONNEL. So from a WR perspective, it never hurts to have a stable of varied production. When your boom or bust guy has a bad matchup, stick him on the bench and play one of your high-floor guys, like your Edelmans, Landrys, etc. Those guys aren't sexy, but they're going to produce, whereas your boom-or-busts will put up dud weeks where they may only see 1 or 2 targets. The reason some people are better at fantasy football than others doesn't always have to do with the draft. Some people just fail to understand the matchups and therefore they start the wrong guys. You need to look at game logs from the last season to see how volatile your WRs were. That is when the light starts clicking on and you begin to understand that you need a diversified roster of stability mixed with big point potential. So approach your season from a weekly perspective from the get-go and you will gain a massive edge against your field who are going to be focusing solely on seasonal production as a whole, not understanding the historical production factors of each player.
Also - PPR vs Standard comes into play a lot in early rounds of drafts. You probably should be more inclined to find RB production early in standard leagues where you can't grab as many safe-floor RBs.
I will really appreciate it if someone could take a look at my draft and let me know what you think! I'll do the same for you! 12 Man Standard. Picked at #5. QB: Cousins RB1/2: McCoy, Crowell WR1/2: M.Thomas, Crabtree TE: Kelce Flex: K.Benjamin K: Gostkowski DST: Broncos Bench: J. Williams, D.Johnson, J. Williams, T. Coleman, J.J Nelson, M. Wallace
I think you overpaid for McCoy at 5 TBH. I would have rather gone with Melvin Gordon there if you really needed to go RB. Buffalo looks like they are going into rebuild mode and I have a hard time spending my top draft capital on a potentially bad offense with the opportunity cost being Gordon, Mike Evans, or AJ Green. That being said, I do like your receivers. I wouldn't have drafted Kelce that high in a standard league. The production is there but the TDs aren't. Maybe that changes this year, and Kelce is definitely KC's #1 option in the vertical game, but in a standard league I'm looking for the most potential TDs possible. However, it does mean you don't have to worry about streaming waiver wire TEs and Kelce is startable most every week so it does lighten your load. I'm not thrilled about your RB situation but you definitely helped yourself by taking Tevin Coleman. He's a good mid-round pickup who finds ways to produce. Also would be in a cherry situation as a clear RB1 if Freeman were to get hurt. Duke Johnson doesn't have RB value anymore, but he might end up playing slot receiver, so again not really a good standard league pick but he's got potential to provide a floor if he gets on the field enough.
@moestavern19 Thank you for the write up! Re: Shady. At 5, I felt like I was in a pickle because I wanted a RB first. I didn't like Gordon because of how bad San Diego's OL is. I took a long hard look at Murray but decided that I didn't want to reach that far when the Titans could reduce his workload. I looked at the ADP for those two guys and felt like they're a reach. Do you reach for RBs in R1? Re: Duke Johnson. I got him as a handcuff to Crowell. Safety over everything right now. Got the handcuff to Shady too.
So handcuffing really isn't a very good strategy anymore unless you understand the situation. Analytics has proven that is has a negative effect on your seasonal roster. If Crowell goes down, your team is substantially worse and Duke Johnson would not assume the Crowell role. That is why it makes much more sense to pick up a handcuff that isn't tied to your team's overall outlook. Now handcuffing McCoy isn't as bad of a strategy because there is a good chance Williams will have some flex value since the backup in Buffalo has historically been productive compared to other backup RBs because they run the ball more than any other team. When identifying handcuffs, you don't want to waste roster space on insurance, because it really isn't insurance in most cases. You're not helping your overall outlook by handcuffing RBs with questionable skill sets and roles. So unless Duke Johnson turns into a slot receiver who catches 5-6 balls a game, he will be completely worthless on your roster as long as Crowell is healthy, and even a Crowell injury doesn't give you an adequate replacement, because Duke Johnson is not an NFL between the tackles runner. There is likely to be a better handcuff on the waiver wire right now that would be much better for you to roster than Duke Johnson. The reason why is because you're competing against other teams. Sounds obvious, but say Devonta Freeman gets hurt, your team gains a potential stud RB1 in Coleman while another team loses a stud RB1 and gets substantially worse. You want to look for ways to gain an edge, not buy diminishing return insurance policies.
@moestavern19 That is a very good pointer. Never saw it from that perspective! Thanks! I'm looking to dump Duke Johnson now. Based on your advice, I am taking a good hard look at DeAndre Washington, Chris Johnson, Kenyan Drake, and Donta Foreman. Are players like this the kind of players you are talking about in your post? I'm looking to pick up Washington right now as I'm not sure what Marshawn's status is and their OL is good.
Anyone with some experience with IDP leagues. One of my leagues I joined for the 1st time has this spot. I'm assuming you address this position later similar to team def and k's
Depends on when the run on LBs start. LBs are plentiful though. I think the only real IDP who potentially is worth drafting before the last rounds is Watt, solely because his historical production is so much higher than that of any other DL you can draft by a wide margin.
thanks moe i was browsing through the highest scorer for idp last year and it was landon collins from NY
I really like Washington but its difficult to see him with much upside in a standard league because he and Jalen Richard split the change-of-pace role. Even if Lynch goes down, they prefer FB Jamize Olawale as the GL back so I don't see him turning into anything more than a flex play. Of all those you listed, Foreman clearly offers the most upside and could be involved in the offense early. I'd snatch him up.
Any opinions on Thomas Rawls this year? I feel like he's a good buy low candidate due to his latest set of injuries. Devante Parker has shown some good chemistry with Cutler. Do you think he will be productive this year?
Rawls was awful last year, Seattle's line is in disarray again, its a big question mark with no clear answer. Parker I like. He's a very good WR.
Thanks so much Moe! I was hoping Rawls would be an utlra buy low candidate but the guy in my league has him pegged as a RB2 to RB1. You're right. His ??? are too hard to ignore to really take a good gamble on him.
I would. You're getting the best player out of the whole deal. Question: My Crowell/Benjamin for his AJ Green/James White. RB2 will be T. Coleman, WR 1/2 will be AJ Green, M. Thomas, and Flex would be Crabtree. Doesn't seem like too steep of a price for AJ Green?
