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Fantasy Football advice thread [2017-18]

Discussion in 'Fantasy Sports' started by YOLO, Aug 9, 2017.

  1. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    It's almost that time of year for the new NFL season. Good luck to everyone in their leagues.

    One thing I'm noticing this year is the QB's list being a bit deeper as far as solid weekly starters. Thoughts on upcoming sleepers or breakout candidates?
     
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  2. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    A few thoughts, as we begin preseason.

    RBs: Joe Mixon is being drafted like a workhorse back. Still seeing him go before some more established backs. I don't get it. Zeke inflation on rookie RBs? I would rather draft Fournette when trying to locate a rookie back with a real shot at workhorse status. Kareem Hunt is worth a mid-round flier for Zero RB theorists. Could eventually take over lead role. Spencer Ware is not anything to write home about even when healthy. I still like Devonta Freeman anywhere I can get him. People don't like to draft him because they know Coleman will vulture TDs from him, but you look at his production and its hard to argue against it. I will avoid Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte like the plague. Lacy has never lived up to his hype, and the Jets have a real shot to go 0-16. Who is their current WR1? Anyone know? Robbie Anderson? Puke. On the flip side, Bilal Powell is the garbage time pass-catching back. Could have real value in PPR. Can find the end zone too. Not just a Theo Riddick.

    QB: I will continue to laugh at anyone who spends a high pick on Matt Ryan. Last season was an outlier for his career arc. If I can get Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, or Tyrod Taylor at a discount, I'll go that route. It does not make any sense to me to invest in Matt Ryan when his career stats rival that of Rivers, Stafford, etc. We have a lot of established QBs in this league now that will put up decent stats weekly. Mariota and Winston are both guys I would have no problem starting. Derek Carr is overrated in fantasy football. Very curious to see how the offense will change with Lynch there, but both backs behind Lynch (Washington and Richard) will both see the field a lot. I am very much in favor of Late-Round QB this year.

    WR: We're starting to see 3WR sets become more and more prevalent in NFL offenses, with some teams like the Giants almost exclusively using it as a base offense. This has led to bit of a downtick in WR1 and WR2 production. The ball is being "spread" around more and therefore we have many WRs with marginal value across the board to choose from. WR used to be the easiest and safest route to build a team, but this year you have some real question marks that could make or break your season. Keenan Allen and Sammy Watkins were guys I invested in last year and paid the price for it as they just can't hold up. The talent is still there with both of those guys, but the risk is so great. I think the wisest strategy for drafting WRs is to maximize potential while also minimizing risk. You don't want to have a WR corps of TY Hilton, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, etc. Those are boom-or-bust types. You'll have a few nice weeks when the stars align, but sometimes you need a Jarvis Landry or a Julian Edelman to put up points for you. Low ceilling WRs aren't sexy to anyone, so its hard to stay disciplined. DeVante Parker: I loved him coming out of college and he's definitely shown flashes. Still his ADP right now is that of a lower tier WR1. I don't love him enough to pay that price.
     
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  3. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member
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    I always read Moes' posts... always great advice. I am focusing on RBs this season, knowing there are always good WRs available later in the draft and I don't want to stoop for the Duke Johnsons of the world and the RBs get hurt. Last year I grabbed Ajayi off waivers and with Gordon as a late draft pick I did well until injuries. I will also wait on QB again... I'd be happy with any two of these: Mariota, Cousins, Taylor. I lucked into Wilson off waivers too but he had a few clunkers at bad times (eg vs TB). I agree with Moes... if I reach higher, its Winston... he will have a loaded offense. I'll go with TE by committee after getting killed with Reed's injuries.
     
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  4. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Re: TEs

    Nothing is more frustrating than the current state of the TE. Gronk/Reed/Eifert arguably the best scoring TEs in the league and you can't trust any of them to stay healthy.

    I still LOVE Jordan Reed. He's Cousin's favorite target and other than Gronk, Olsen and Kelce, you don't see a TE who is such an integral part of the passing game these days. When Jordan Reed is healthy he's a monster who will win you weeks. Again, a lot of injury risk and his toe problems in camp are worrisome. I won't invest a high pick in Reed this year, but if I see him in the 5th round I'd have to pull the trigger, the reward is just too good to pass up.

    Seems like Kelce is the consensus #2 TE this year, but I'm not going to spend a 3rd rounder on him. Still not convinced he's gonna be THAT good. Not when I can get Olsen a couple rounds later and get roughly the same production. Seems like Zach Ertz all over again, every year we hear about how great this guy is suddenly gonna be, every year its a disappointment. I do think Kelce could end up TE1 this year, but I'm not gonna draft him and pray for 10 TDs to suddenly fall in his lap.

    I'm not a middle of the road TE kind of guy, just like I'm not usually a middle of the road QB kind of guy. I'm not going to spend a 7th round pick on Kyle Rudolph.

    I'm ok with waiting and grabbing a pair of Delanie Walker, Hunter Henry, Martellus Bennett, Ebron, Fleener, Cook etc
     
    #4 moestavern19, Aug 9, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2017
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  5. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member
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    Same approach. I may even take a gamble on Ladarius Green but I would be happy with Henry, Doyle, Hooper or even CJ. Heck, one game late in the season Witten had a monster game (against me... argh).
     
  6. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Pretty big gamble considering he's currently a FA ;)
     
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  7. NewRoxFan

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    Dang, all last season I was catching the buzz that he would be a long ball threat for the Steelers. Knock him off the list. Last year my biggest mistake was signing Sammie Coates as a FA. One broken finger later and I think he didn't even catch a pass. I think I signed him instead of Cam Meredith. *groan*
     
  8. NewRoxFan

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    Speaking of injuries... what's your take on CJ Prosise. He seems like David Johnson (tall, fast, catches the ball well), love to sneak him later in the draft.
     
  9. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Felt like he was going to be in a good spot last season and then got hurt quick. Need to see him stay healthy this year to see what he's got.
     
  10. Ziggy

    Ziggy Tastemaker
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    Cant WAIT to watch a meaningless bidding war for Matt Ryan in my auction league. I also ENJOY watching you fools REACH for ESPN's latest hypeboi. Who will be this year's Cordarrelle Patterson or Coby Fleener? We'll SEE.
     
  11. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    thoughts on DJax in TB and the effect it'll have on Mike Evans?
     
  12. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Jameis isn't going to be turned into a game manager so quickly.

    Jackson will draw more targets but also draw more attention so I dont think you have to worry about it effecting Evans range of outcomes too much. I like him as a top 5 WR, just a tick below AB, Julio and ODB.
     
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  13. Ziggy

    Ziggy Tastemaker
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    I'm downgrading AB slightly because Big Ben always gets hurt + Martavis is legit.
     
  14. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    AB's per games are actually better with Martavis, but yeah Big Ben goes down he becomes bench worthy. Landry Jones is sooooo trash.

    AB is the best fantasy receiver when Big Ben is there. I think he's hyper aware of his #s.

    It's like Big Ben knows if AB doesn't get his, there's gonna be hell to pay. He even throws it to him late in the game when they're leading. It's glorious.
     
  15. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    Zeke suspended for the first 6 games
     
  16. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Don't think McFadden is an automatic plug and play Fill-in. They will probably go committee.
     
  17. NewRoxFan

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    Perhaps it will be reduced. But if it stays at 6 games... where do you draft Zeke? Second round? Does McCoy become the RB3?
     
  18. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    standard leagues i would say 3rd or 4th rounds. smaller league maybe a little earlier imo
     
  19. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    probably. i don't really trust either mcfadden or morris at this point
     
  20. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member
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    Agreed... DAL has a tough early schedule and a bye in week 6. Best look elsewhere for a plug-in.
     
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