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Breaking: Trump's Wall

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Carl Herrera, Dec 18, 2018.

  1. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    I was curious if there was any useful metric the government has that could demonstrate the efficacy of the border wall over time. The short answer is probably not. But, I found this pretty interesting DHS Report: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ndaa_border_metrics_report_fy_2018_0_0.pdf. Some things I think are interesting, looking particularly at their section on crossings between points of entry:

    1. They describe this "denominator problem" where they don't know how many unlawful crossings there all, which complicates the tabulation of apprehension rates, turn-backs, etc. But they also do some statistical voodoo to estimate illegal crossers and therefore a detection rate -- which is surprisingly high! They say we were doing 60-70% from 2006 to 2013 and then it went way up to ~90% in 2014-2017 (and if I understand the methodology, this excludes minors and caravans who just turn themselves in and are assumed to be 100% detected). So while I'm sure counting illegal border crossers is hard, they seem to think they are detecting the great majority of them.

    2. Estimated Detected Entries and Estimated Undetected Entries have both fallen precipitously from 2006 when they a combined 3.2 million. By 2016, it was ~700k. Turn-backs have also declined a ton (I would expect turn-backs is where we would see the impact of a better border wall, but data only runs through 2017). Not surprising because it reflects the trend we know: that Mexicans aren't trying to come over nearly as much as they used to.

    3. At the same time all the attempts to cross have been dropping, our apprehension rate has just been climbing. They have 2 models for estimating the rate, but the trends are the same. The model-based estimate climbs from a low of 32% in 2003 to a high of 73% in 2016 before dipping a little in 2017. The observational estimate starts in 2006 at 63% and climbs to 79% in 2016 before dipping a little in 2017. DHS had already significantly improved their effectiveness before any new wall was contemplated.

    It's not really new news to me or anyone else. And sure there's still room for improvement. But meandering through the report really highlighted to me how anachronistic Trump's immigration policy is. Not only has he picked the most expensive way imaginable to address the issue, he's trying to solve a problem of 20 years ago.
     
    TheFreak likes this.
  2. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    He will announce detailed specifics Wednesday November 4.
     
    No Worries and B-Bob like this.
  3. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    And Canadian tax payers will pay for it.
     
  4. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    You will also soon find that, indeed, Trump steaks are the BEST steaks, available at the Sharper Image!!
     
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  5. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    This post literally fits the subject title... guess simple tools from Home Depot are not needed after all.

    Portion of US border wall in California falls over in high winds and lands on Mexican side
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/29/politics/us-border-wall-falls-over-high-winds/index.html

    So... all border crossers need to do is "huff, and puff, and blow your vanity wall down!
    [​IMG]
     
    No Worries likes this.
  6. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    conquistador#11 likes this.
  7. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Apparently, strong winds aren't even needed to get through trump's expensive and ineffective vanity wall...






    [​IMG]
     
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  8. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    trump's lies are endless and know no bounds...

     
  9. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    trump rerouting more defense dollars to his ridiculous vanity wall... making us less safe.

     
  10. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    You can't make this up.
     
  11. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Unfortunately these republicans wait until they are on the way out the door (not running for re-election) to develop conscious and oppose trump's blatant corrupt actions...

     
  12. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    So the parts that don't blow down in the wind are too hot to touch?



    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    joshuaao likes this.
  13. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    LOL... guess it doesn't matter how hot the "wall" gets...

    'Somebody is making money off those ladders': Smugglers use 'camouflage' ladders to cross border wall
    https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/n...flage-ladder-to-cross-border-wall/4760798002/
     
  14. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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  15. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    LOL... he felt the need to explain why why the "powerful" wall fell over...

     
  16. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Maybe it’s just me but comparing doors at your house to a wall in the middle of the desert is not the greatest comparison.

    All you have to do is have some basic knowledge of the border to know it’s a stupid idea. That’s why it plays better in Michigan and West Virginia than in Texas or Arizona. Although there are still some idiots in Texas still that never go past San Antonio apparently.

    Do me a favor. Go take your family to Big Bend and the Marfa area this Spring Break. Then come back and tell us what a great idea it is to have a wall go through that. And it would be easier there than building it through the Chihuahua desert north west of Big Bend.

    Its a dumb idea. Technology, immigration reform, and coherent Central American state dept policy is a better start to seriously handle the issue. Talking about “the wall” is a waste of dead brain space.
     
    FranchiseBlade and mdrowe00 like this.
  17. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member
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    For a guy who was a developer and claims to know a lot about construction this is either ignorance or more lying. To fix the wall from falling over due to incorrect concrete curing you have to repour the foundation. It takes 28 days for concrete to fully cure so it can't be a fast fix.
     
    mdrowe00 likes this.
  18. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  19. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    As it turns out, Mexico isn't paying for trump's vanity wall, Wisconsin is...

    Sen. Baldwin blasts plan to divert millions for Oshkosh Defense to border wall
    https://www.wbay.com/content/news/S...Oshkosh-Defense-to-border-wall-567878281.html
     
  20. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    trump will break or avoid laws, in order to get his vanity wall built? Insert "shocked face" gif...

    Homeland Security waives contracting laws for border wall
    https://apnews.com/1689fa48a2e177d1f397b95ff0cb97db

    Gee, I wonder how things like this could possibly happen...

    Pentagon watchdog to audit North Dakota company's border wall contract
    https://thehill.com/policy/defense/...atchdog-to-audit-north-dakota-companys-border
     
    FranchiseBlade likes this.

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