August 31 Trade Deadline/Waived Players Thread

Hard to believe any prospect, even a Top 10 overall prospect, is worth $50M. If Tucker were a free agent I think he'd fetch somewhere between $30-40M. The analysis that has been done on valuing prospects by sites like fangraphs backs that up.

 

According to whom?... Baseball America? We have no idea how the individual teams value these guys. I'll give you an example: Francis Martes. He was generally considered an afterthought in the Cosart deal; here's what one publication had to say: Information about him is sparse, but he's posted a 5.18 ERA in 33 innings for the Gulf Coast League Marlins... He is a live-armed rookie baller who is trying to learn to pitch, like two hundred other guys.

ESPN didn't even write him up in their trade recap:

Maybe the Astros got lucky and found buried treasure. Or........ is it possible they saw his live arm and valued him differently than the baseball press, as well as the Marlins?

Here's the last line of the article I originally quoted: Obviously the Astros saw something they liked with him.

The only "approximate value" you can derive is from third-party, unaffiliated outlets. And while I'm not suggesting they're worthless or even wholly inaccurate, I am suggesting that we shouldn't assume their evaluation methods align with the teams who have much greater resources and intel, as well as their own internal agendas and priorities.

Therefore, I think it's intellectually lazy to use Baseball America (et al) to retroactively chastise the Astros. It's infinitely more complicated than that.

 

Red Sox bought Moncado for 63 million just a couple years back. Assuming that they took into account that would still have to pay him at least 10 million in arbitration costs, Red Sox valued Moncado at least at 73 million dollars.

On Fangraphs, they estimate most Top 10 hitters are worth 60-70 million in surplus value based on how Top 10 prospects have actually produced historically. Granted, it drops off really quick after the Top 10.

 

If Tucker's.... half as good as George Springer - so ~7.6 WAR through his first four MLB seasons - that's ~$60MM in value. And he'd only be 24, 25 years old at that point. The general consensus is that he's a better prospect than Springer was, too, so in terms of future valuation, 7.6 WAR is probably a conservative figure.

You're trading away potentially $100+MM in future value for the age 35 and 36 seasons of a pitcher.

(@Joe Joe will a) correct any wrong assumptions/math; b) explain this way better)

 

I don't know; will Detroit also shave off the three-year age difference? That's be awesome...

Hamels was 31 when he was dealt; Verlander is 34.

 

You want pitching. Dodgers got pitching. Washington got pitching. Yankees got pitching. Boston got pitching. CHC got pitching. Indians got pitching. It is not a coincidence that the current division leaders traded almost exclusively for pitchers and almost exclusively (not sure about the almost, it could be all) those pitchers took a Top 100 prospect.

Not one hitter got a Top 100 prospect or anything close to it. Yep, it has to be that Detroit justs sees something in Lugo that BA, Fangraphs, etc haven't seen as well as any of their MLB contacts. It isn't just Detroit that had a hitter it wanted to trade and didn't get much. Several teams just decided for draft compensation, but those teams get a much higher pick than Detroit. Astros could have traded for Martinez if they wanted and it would likely not have impacted acquiring the pitcher they didn't acquire.

It is easy to see that teams that acquired pitching traded a different tier of prospect than teams acquiring hitters if you have any faith in prospect lists. Detroit probably does see something in what they got, but they would have more than likely taken a safer prospect they could have gotten one. Third party sources aren't perfect, but good enough to see hitters not valued at deadline. Even if you don't believe in prospect lists at all and supply and demand should suggest Detroit likely got someone significantly less valued than what teams with pitchers got.

 

If Tucker was a free agent and signed for his club controlled years, $100MM +/- 15 million would not surprise me. Considering arbitration costs and minimum salaries, the number probably drops almost perfectly to the $60 million Fangraphs predicts in surplus value for a hitter in the Top 5 to 15 range.

 

This team could use another bat. Getting shut out on the regular.

 

Adding Correa will be a big boost, but I'm also not naive enough to think he's just going to come back and start raking again. Right now, this team is slumping hard, and we need to figure out an answer quickly. Boston is about to jack that top spot from us.

 

A

Agreed. Bringing up Tyler White for JD Davis should help somewhat. White is 7-for-22 with 2 HRs and 3 stolen bases since being sent back to AAA. He's still got a hot bat. Gattis returning in place of Stassi or Centeno should also boost the team OPS. And hopefully, Altuve will get his wits about him and start using his brain when he sees a ball heading for the dirt.

 

Spoiler

The Astros own the American League's best record at 74-47 and hold a commanding 12-game lead in the AL West, but lately, they've been in a funk, and members of the team have openly complained that general manager Jeff Luhnow didn't do enough to bolster the roster for the postseason before the non-waiver trade dealine on July 31. With the Aug. 31 waiver deadline still nearly two weeks today, it's not too late for the team to make moves—and they should, because suddenly they look quite vulnerable.

After splitting their first eight games of the season, the Astros went on a tear that pushed them to 29-12 (.707) through May 17 and 42-16 (.724) through June 5. They're just 32-31 since the latter date, and 5-11 this month, with shaky pitching largely to blame. Consider the monthly performances of their rotation and bullpen relative to their offense, in terms of runs per nine innings (not ERA) so as to keep all on the same scale:



...

In the days leading up to the July 31 deadline, the Astros reportedly made only limited pursuits of the top starters who were moved, namely Jose Quintana (who went from the White Sox to the Cubs), Sonny Gray (A's to Yankees) and Yu Darvish (Rangers to Dodgers). According to FanRag Sports' Jon Heyman, "[O]ne rival exec says it was his understanding the Astros made six prospects off-limits." Via MLB Network's Ken Rosenthal, Luhnow’s focus was on the bullpen at the deadline, and the Astros went into July 31 believing that they would wrap up deals for three relievers, the Blue Jays' Francisco Liriano (struggling as a starter), the Orioles Zach Britton and "a third, unidentified high-end type whose addition would have surprised the industry, according to major-league sources."

Only the Liriano deal was completed. As Rosenthal wrote on Facebook, "The mystery reliever stayed put when his team’s owner decided against trading him, while the Britton talks broke down—as negotiations with the Orioles sometimes do—when the O’s raised concerns about the medical condition of at least one player coming back to them."

Ouch. Since then, Liriano has been shaky, but the bullpen, which added Tyler Clippard in a trade from the White Sox last weekend, has rediscovered its form. The rotation? Not so much. Morton has posted a 3.32 ERA in three starts, two of them quality starts, but McHugh, Peacock, Keuchel and Fiers have combined for a 6.56 ERA with just three quality starts out of 13.

The failure to make an impact move did not escape notice in the clubhouse. On Aug. 1, Keuchel told reporters, "I'm not going to lie, disappointment is a little bit of an understatement . . . us just kind of staying pat was really disappointing to myself." Last week, outfielder Josh Reddick suggested many teammates felt similarly in an interview on MLB Network Radio:

“I think deep down everybody in that clubhouse knew we were going to make some moves to make us a really great team to a team that put us over the edge, especially with all the moves you see moving around the league. It’s nothing against our guys, we are a great team, but any time you can make your team better you feel like should have the opportunity to do that and take full advantage. I think deep down, we all were, I don’t know if you want to say disappointed or upset, I guess we were just kind of down in the dumps because we feel like we had a pretty good shot at getting somebody to help this team get over that hump to where we needed to be.”

Prior to the deadline and again this month, the Astros engaged in talks with the Tigers about righthander Justin Verlander, who has cleared waivers, but the two teams have apparently reached an impasse. As Heyman reported, "One person involved in the talks said it was his impression the talks were 'put to bed last week.' "

Detroit, which is in the midst of a rebuild, could certainly stand to unload the 34-year-old Verlander. Even with a 2.72 ERA since the All-Star break, his 4.11 overall mark is his highest since 2014; his 1.2 home runs per nine is a career worst, while his 3.8 walks per nine is his worst since '08. That's an ominous trend for a pitcher who is owed roughly $7 million for the remainder of this year and then $56 million in 2018 and '19, with a $22 million vesting option for 2020 (contingent upon finishing among the top five in the 2019 Cy Young vote). Add to that his no-trade protection as a 5-and-10 player (10 years of major league service time and at least five with his current team) and it's not hard to see how any potential deal for him could run aground.

If not Verlander, though, Houston should still be in the market for rotation help, because neither of its top two starters is in working order. Keuchel has managed a 7.23 ERA in four starts since returning from the DL, only the last of which was a quality start. McCullers doesn't appear likely to return before September; after Thursday's bullpen session, according to the Houston Chronicle's Hunter Atkins, McCullers said he would talk to the media in "a couple days, when [manager] A.J. [Hinch] and them determine what's the next step."

As to whom the Astros could acquire, it's not as though there are frontline pitchers easily available. The best bet would be a capable innings-eater who might go on a roll, like the Giants' Jeff Samardzija, the Padres' Jhoulys Chacin and the Braves' R.A. Dickey. Samardzija, whom the Astros explored dealing for prior to the deadline, still has more than $40 million remaining on his contract through 2020, not to mention limited no-trade protection (the Astros are not on his eight-team pre-approved list); he reportedly has yet to be placed on waivers.

As of Tuesday, the Blue Jays' Marco Estrada, another pitcher often mentioned in such a context, had been claimed on waivers by an unidentified team, and with more than 48 hours since then, it's safe to presume he's been pulled back and is staying put. Other options, such as the Twins' Ervin Santana and the Rangers' Andrew Cashner, are complicated by pitching for teams that still hold an outside shot at a wild AL wild card race in which nine teams are within three games of a spot.

The next week and a half should winnow the field, and in the interim, the Astros should gain more clarity about the conditions of Keuchel and McCullers. But if things haven't straightened out and Houston gets to September without further reinforcement, it won't be a surprise if the team that once appeared to be rocketing towards this year's World Series is knocked out of orbit. ​

​

 

"According to FanRag Sports' Jon Heyman, "[O]ne rival exec says it was his understanding the Astros made six prospects off-limits."

So, Whitley, Tucker, Martes, Fisher, Perez, and Alvarez?

 

1 maaaaaaybe 2 of those will have success in big league.. way to go Lunhow.....

 

And if they knew exactly which two, I bet only two of those would be off-limits.

 

Fisher, Bergman, Martes are all "off-limit" prospects because they are contributing on the big league team already.

Add Tucker and Whitley and that makes 5 clear untouchables I can peg.

Who is the 6th? Perez?

 

Mets fans floating rumor of Curtis Granderson and Rene Rivera trade to the Astros. Hope not.

 

Supposedly headed to the Dodgers

 

Dodgers are a in a major market tho

 

Granderson to the Dodgers for a ptbnl. They're just stocking UP.

 

Is Granderson even good anymore?? Isn't he like 42? I honestly haven't heard anything about him in YEARS.