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[Athletic] Bagwell 58th Best Player of All-Time

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by lnchan, Jan 29, 2020.

  1. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    The war's over, guys. Jeff Bagwell is in the Hall of Fame and whatever opposition exists is now just empty noise being shouted into a vacuum. Have at it, Joe Smith.
     
    arkoe, msn and BigM like this.
  2. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Jose Altuve is running ~10 points behind Bagwell in bWAR at roughly the same point in their careers. And Altuve's peak may very well be behind him. He's going to need a ridiculously impressive end to his career to get into Bagwell's (WAR) orbit.

    Bregman has a real shot; he's ~3 points off Bagwell's early career bWAR. Will be very interesting to see where he ends up.
     
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  3. Gray_Jay

    Gray_Jay Member

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    I think Altuve will have a longer career than Bagwell. Plus, I think 2b defense gets valued more highly than 1b, which should help make up for Altuve's lack of power compared to Bagwell. I am concerned though, like you mentioned, that Altuve's peak might be behind me. There were plenty of occasions last season where I kept expecting Altuve to turn it on, and it didn't happen. I think it'll be close. I hope Bregman continues to mash.

    It's a joy watching both of them play.
     
  4. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Depending on the methodology.... I don't think it'll be close. Altuve is nearing 60% of Bagwell's total plate appearances and trails in bWAR by 41.4. 41.4! So, essentially, his next ~3,900 PAs (6 seasons) need to be better than his first ~5,500 just to *catch* Bagwell. And Altuve will be 30 this season and is starting to show wear and tear (his PAs the past two years are down ~115/season).

    Sure, Altuve could play significantly longer - but, remember: Biggio has ~3,000 more PAs than Bagwell and still trails in bWAR by 14.4. At the end of 2003, Biggio had 9,274 PAs (Bagwell finished with 9.431) and a 61.3 bWAR. He was only able to add 4.2 bWAR his final five (full) seasons.

    Now, if Altuve creeps into the upper 50s/lower 60s, you could start to argue his postseason success makes up any difference. The emotional connection to him is going to be immeasurable.

    None of this is to denigrate Altuve, of course, and certainly not to piss all over your post - it's really more to demonstrate that even among Astros fans, Bagwell tends to be underrated. Fans know he was great - I'm not sure many realize *how* great. He is among the 50 greatest hitters of all-time and the second-best NL 1B ever.

    And this Joe Smith character can play in traffic.
     
    msn likes this.
  5. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Altuve's biggest advantage on Bagwell is and will be postseason.
     
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  6. Buck Turgidson

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    How are you valuing dipsh!ttery on the bases vs one of the best baserunners ever?
     
    NIKEstrad likes this.
  7. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    https://theathletic.com/1457115/201...-celebrating-the-greatest-players-in-history/

    No. 100: Ichiro Suzuki
    No. 99: Mike Mussina
    No. 98: Carlos Beltrán
    No. 97: Roberto Alomar
    No. 96: Larry Walker
    No. 95: Tony Gwynn
    No. 94: Roy Campanella
    No. 93: Ozzie Smith
    No. 92: Bullet Rogan
    No. 91: Mariano Rivera
    No. 90: Max Scherzer
    No. 89: Mike Piazza
    No. 88: Curt Schilling
    No. 87: Charlie Gehringer
    No. 86: Gary Carter
    No. 85: Sadaharu Oh
    No. 84: Cool Papa Bell
    No. 83: Phil Niekro
    No. 82: Kid Nichols
    No. 81: Ferguson Jenkins
    No. 80: Carlton Fisk
    No. 79: Derek Jeter
    No. 78: Clayton Kershaw
    No. 77: Miguel Cabrera
    No. 76: Willie McCovey
    No. 75: Justin Verlander
    No. 74: Frank Thomas
    No. 73: Brooks Robinson
    No. 72: Robin Roberts
    No. 71: Bert Blyleven
    No. 70: Sandy Koufax
    No. 69: Monte Irvin
    No. 68: Gaylord Perry
    No. 67: Hank Greenberg
    No. 66: Robin Yount
    No. 65: Ernie Banks
    No. 64: Johnny Mize
    No. 63: Steve Carlton
    No. 62: Smokey Joe Williams
    No. 61: Arky Vaughan
    No. 60: Pete Rose
    No. 59: Reggie Jackson
    No. 58: Jeff Bagwell
    No. 57: Rod Carew
    No. 56: Joe DiMaggio
    No. 55: Bob Feller
    No. 54: Chipper Jones
    No. 53: Buck Leonard
    No. 52: Adrián Beltré
    No. 51: Al Kaline
    No. 50: Nolan Ryan
    No. 49: Warren Spahn
    No. 48: Ken Griffey Jr.
    No. 47: Wade Boggs
    No. 46: Eddie Mathews
    No. 45: Bob Gibson
    No. 44: Cal Ripken Jr.
    No. 43: Yogi Berra
    No. 42: Jackie Robinson
    No. 41: Tom Seaver
    No. 40: Roberto Clemente
    No. 39: Nap Lajoie
    No. 38: Carl Yastrzemski
    No. 37: Pedro Martínez
    No. 36: Christy Mathewson
    No. 35: George Brett
    No. 34: Cy Young
    No. 33: Jimmie Foxx
    No. 32: Mel Ott
    No. 31: Greg Maddux
    No. 30: Johnny Bench
    No. 29: Eddie Collins
    No. 28: Randy Johnson
    No. 27: Mike Trout
    No. 26: Grover Cleveland Alexander
    No. 25: Pop Lloyd
    No. 24: Rickey Henderson
    No. 23: Albert Pujols
    No. 22: Lefty Grove
    No. 21: Joe Morgan
    No. 20 (tie): Frank Robinson
    No. 20 (tie): Mike Schmidt
    No. 18: Tris Speaker
    No. 17: Rogers Hornsby
    No. 16: Alex Rodriguez
    No. 15: Josh Gibson
    No. 14: Lou Gehrig
    No. 13: Roger Clemens
    No. 12: Honus Wagner
    No. 11: Mickey Mantle
    No. 10: Satchel Paige
    No. 9: Stan Musial
    No. 8: Ty Cobb
    No. 7: Walter Johnson
    No. 6: Ted Williams
    No. 5: Oscar Charleston
    No. 4: Henry Aaron
    No. 3: Barry Bonds
    No. 2: Babe Ruth
    No. 1: Willie Mays
     
  8. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    9 former or current Astros/Colt 45s on that list
     
  9. PhiSlammaJamma

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    I can't believe they put the steroid users in there and are just willing to pretend like it didn't matter. The mentality is f'd up. They need to clean up the list.
     
  10. msn

    msn Member

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    I can't believe Beltrán is on the list at all while several bona fide Hall of Famers are omitted. I don't think dude had a hall of fame career. Am I underestimating him?
     
  11. Cannonball

    Cannonball Contributing Member

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    Some of this may be due to his longevity, but he's 53rd all time in runs scored, 62nd in hits, 34th in total bases, 28th in doubles, 46th in home runs, 24th in XBH, 41st in RBI's, That probably warrants discussion for Top 100.

    His career numbers are extremely similar to Andre Dawson's, who is a hall of famer.

    Beltran (20 seasons) .279 AVG, 2,725 hits, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 Runs
    Dawson (21 seasons) .279 AVG, 2,774 hits, 438 HR, 1,591 RBI, 1,373 Runs
     
    msn likes this.
  12. msn

    msn Member

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    Excellent. Yes, I had underestimated his career.

    Thanks.
     
  13. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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  14. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    I’ll take Biggio. Altuve & Bregman aren’t far behind.
     
  15. smoothie_king

    smoothie_king Member

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    For bagwell to be 10 behind Griffey Jr shows accurate value. Griffey Jr was ranked slightly ahead of bagwell due to injuries suffered by Griffey.

    Then chipper Jones, an outfielder, is ranked four ahead of bagwell primarily due to national league dominance of braves. The braves went to national league playoffs more often than Astros so it makes sense that chipper Jones is ranked ahead of bagwell on the best 100 baseball players.
     
  16. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    He's a definite HOFer (though we'll see how much the scandal effects that). He was a very good player for a very long time. He'll get bonus points as a switch-hitter (something I've always thought was kind of silly since what really matters is your ability to hit both types of pitchers).

    Guys don't play 20 years, make 9 all-star teams, and then not go to the HOF, unless they are tainted by roids or ineligible.
     
  17. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Chipper played 2 seasons in the OF to make way for Vinny Castilla. Chipper Jones is one of the top 5 3B to ever play the game.
     
    arkoe, cmlmel77 and Buck Turgidson like this.
  18. smoothie_king

    smoothie_king Member

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    Glavine, smoltz, and glavine could easily replace Frank Thomas, Pete rose, and Mike piaazza.

    How is Frank Thomas on the list and Jermaine dye, white Sox world series MVP not listed!?!?
     
  19. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    i dunno a lot about baseball but I think Pete Rose and Nolan Ryan should be higher.
     
  20. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Ryan was more of a legendary pitcher than a great pitcher. They have him as the 14th best pitcher and it's hard to argue with the 13 ahead of him. Satchel Paige is probably the most arguable as we unfortunately don't know how he would have fared with a full career in the major leagues.
     

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