I agree with you on most of your points, but COVID is not marginally more dangerous than the flu. While it is nothing like AIDS and it isn't a death sentence for most people, the fatality rate is many times more deadly than the flu and it also appears to be easier to spread.
The vibe following the announcement of the big league season seems to be that the 60 man roster was put in place because there will be no minor league seasons at all. That’s a big bummer. I think the Texas League in particular could totally have a season, in front of fans at reduced capacity. I also think they could relatively safely have complex leagues with no fans, with each team fielding 2 rosters (one upper level and one lower level). It’s really unfair that all these minor leaguers will lose an entire year of development.
If the Astros and Nationals open their complexes to their minor leaguers, both teams could train this entire season and maybe un-officially play each other in inter-squad games. :shrug:
We really don’t know if the death rate is much higher than the flu or not because we have no clue how many people actually have it. It’s impossible to come up with a legitimate death rate without knowing that I fully agree that it does seem easier to spread, although there is so much conflicting info from the CDC and WHO on spreading from contaminated surfaces and whether or not asymptotic people can spread it easily, even that is unknown I do find it hard to understand why they think MLB players can travel the nation and play baseball, but it’s too dangerous for minor leaguers (yes I know it’s about the money)
Information is always changing as this is a new virus. However, we don't normally lose 125,000 people a year from the flu..... and we are likely looking at a death toll north of 200,000 from COVID and that is assuming that it doesn't flare out of control in the fall. So we know that COVID is fairly adept at killing people. We will never know the exact fatality rate as it is impossible to ever know exposure for COVID or even the flu. Many people get the flu each year and do not even seek medical attention and in some foolish cases do not even miss work. They know that COVID is quite contagious from the testing done so far. Now, there are things people can do to limit its ability to spread and we will likely learn more ways. If we have cultural changes it is possible we can limit the effectiveness of COVID and the flu. Also the virus could mutate and become less severe (more common) or more severe (less common but it has happened. However, looking at the total death toll gives us a very good idea of it's effectiveness at killing people. Either way....... we are living in weird times. The world has really slowed down.... this all gives us an idea of how bad it can be if something emerges similar to COVID but with lets say double or triple the death rate. It is quite possible that can happen.... if it did, the world would for the most part come to a screeching halt and the level of civil unrest around the world would be insane.
Saw the possibility mentioned of expanding the fall league and instructional league which to me makes a lot of sense, although I’d also like a complex league player during the mlb season. But here’s how I currently see it playing out: -Most of the guys who would normally be in AAA will be on the 60 man roster, working out with each other and many of them getting time with the major league team. -Each Org will field a full fall league team made up of the best prospects who would have been in AA, High A, and A ball. -Instructional league will be expanded to accommodate more players, likely the best prospects who would have been assigned to short season ball and A ball. That model would mean at least half of the orgs prospects would get some level of development this season.
So does that mean minor league players that don't make it on to the 60 man roster don't get paid? That's way more tragic than the millionaires negotiating with billionaires that was going on between MLBPA and MLB/owners.
Full article on Ivey here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conve...bhu3XngmpsLd-x-PeDg8j19e_7b26GST6Shfkq7m6jwOo "The 24-year-old right-hander, who as noted in a recent Sunday Notes column has recovered from COVID-19 and talked about his “yakker,” his path to pro ball, and his “violent head whack” over the telephone earlier this month."
Wouldn't that be Bielak? No plus pitches, but survives (or not survive in Martin's case) on control/command.
I would put Martin and Ivey a tier above Bielak with MORP ceilings. I think Martin's fastball is plus if not very close to plus and his secondary pitches are sold but obviously nothing spectacular. Bielak to me looks like a fringe starter even with his command.
Corbin Martin's fastball may have the velocity of plus, but it has no movement which causes it to play down. He's going to have to be surgical with it for it to be effective. He was not surgical with it last season and it got hammered a lot.
Here are the players on Houstons 60 man roster that I think would never have gotten developed if teams went to a shorter (say 20 round) draft and fewer (4-5) minor league teams: Jose Altuve Chas McCormick Drew Ferguson Colton Shaver Josh James Nivaldo Rodriguez Framber Valdez Bryan Abreu Chris Devenski Jack Mayfield Enoli Paredes Jose Urquidy Brad Peacock Luis Garcia Carlos Sanabria Ronel Blanco Humberto Castellanos Jojanse Torres Ralph Garza
Not sure about the the fewer minor league teams having much of an impact to the players on this list. Besides for some of the guys that signed internationally really young, most of these guys made full season ball the year after being drafted or signed. For the most part, I expect teams will want to keep the full season teams. Short season...I'm not sure MLB sees the point in official games over an extended spring training atmosphere. The Astros position (at least former administration) on reducing the number of teams is not about reducing the size of the initial net, but on deciding on players more quickly as they can get more views on these players through video along with more accurate pitch tracking data.
Fewer teams forces quicker decisions earlier in players’ development. That means late bloomers (like Taylor Jones) and fringey prospects (like most of the guys on the list in my comment were early in their minor league careers) get cut earlier. I don’t necessarily disagree with the sentiment of reducing the draft and number of minor league teams, I just think it’s interesting that roughly 1/3 of the guys who will play for the Astros this season never would have made it under those conditions.
Taylor Jones was in A ball after a season. As long as there is full season ball, Dominican and Tricky Leagues, and a way for teenagers to develop for a year or 2 before heading to full season ball, removing the short seasons likely wouldn't have impacted the list you provided much. The minors hasn't changed much in decades while technology has made it so much easier to evaluate players. Now, reducing international FAs and draft picks by 10-20 rounds might have an impact though I'm fine with more undrafted free agents. As much crap as Astros get for delaying Springer, not much is said that Astros get players to MLB-ready faster than other teams which helps players get paid quicker even with arbitration and service time manipulation.
