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[2019] Hurricane season

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Xenon, Jul 8, 2019.

  1. tmoney1101

    tmoney1101 Contributing Member

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    Mark?
     
  2. The Hunted

    The Hunted Member

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    Nevermind. Just a dated pop culture reference.
     
    tmoney1101 likes this.
  3. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
    Supporting Member

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    Sorry but your dates are wrong. These storms only happen every 1000 years.
     
    Buck Turgidson, Sajan and tmoney1101 like this.
  4. marks0223

    marks0223 2017 and 2022 World Series Champions
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    Yeah?
     
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  5. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    No, please do mind. It's important.

     
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  6. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Oh, Hi B-Bob
     
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  7. Buck Turgidson

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    I see what you did there. Didn't happen to check out Kirkendoll too, by chance?
     
  8. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    Can't believe Lyft/Uber were working yesterday. How much did it cost if you don't mind my asking? Downtown to Kingwood was running about $90...

    Memorial/Allen Parkway was under water, so I took Dallas into downtown then jumped on 59. it was totally fine until I got to 610, so jumped on the Hardy. Every exit was blocked, so i had to go all the way to 99 and get to Kingwood from the north. Whatever, just glad my house didn't take on any water. Came very close. Any car that was parked on our street got flooded.

    They should start calling these 1 year events instead of 100 year events.....
     
  9. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    $120ish for Lux but employer gave all commuting employees a $200 promo code so it's all good. I wasn't able to get a ride until 7:30pm or so.
     
  10. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    [​IMG]

    Jerry
    Hurricane Jerry is located about 215 miles east of Barbuda. It is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. On our forecast track, Jerry is forecast to pass north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. No signfiicant impacts are expected for these islands. Winds are 100 mph. Jerry is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm this weekend.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    Disturbance 42 is located along 49.5W, or about 780 miles east of Trinidad. It has moved to the west-southwest at about 20 mph over the past 24 hours. It is expected to slow and turn more to the northwest as it approaches the Windward Islands late tomorrow and Sunday. Squalls have increased with this disturbance. However, they are disorganized. Environmental conditions are currently somewhat favorable for development. However, there is a chance that wind shear will increase once it moves into the eastern Caribbean. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the Windward Islands over the weekend. The chance of tropical development is 30 percent.

    Disturbance 39 is drifting slowly to the west-southwest to the south of Haiti in the central Caribbean Sea. A slow westward drift is expected during the next several days. There is a large area of somewhat persistent squalls associated with the disturbance. However, the system is being affected by moderate wind shear. This wind shear is likely to persist for the next few days. Therefore, there is only a 10 percent chance of tropical development.

    A new disturbance is expected to emerge off of the coast of Africa during the next couple of days. Nearly every forecast model indicates that this system will undergo significant development. It also could bring enhanced wind and rain to parts of the Cape Verde Islands during the early to middle of next week. There is a 70 percent chance of tropical development within the next 7 days.

    Disturbance 43 is located along 20W. It is expected to move to the west-northwest at about 10 to 15 mph during the next few days. It could enhance the rainfall for the Cape Verde Islands this weekend. However, there is only a 10 percent chance of tropical development.
     
  11. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Stumbled on this incredible eyewall video from Hurricane Michael last year.
     
  12. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Sneaky 39, comin' atcha

    [​IMG]

    Jerry
    Tropical Storm Jerry is passing about 250 miles to the north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico this morning. Sustained winds are estimated to be 65 mph. Jerry is expected to restrengthen into a hurricane by the time it tracks near Bermuda by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Beyond then, the forecast becomes more uncertain.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    Disturbance 42 is located along 54W and moving to the west near 15 mph. Atmospheric rotation has increased in association with the system. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development over the next couple of days. The disturbance is expected to track over the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean by Sunday. We think beyond Sunday, increasing wind shear will begin to weaken the system. By Monday, it is expected to turn northwest and continue weakening. It has a 50 percent chance of development before wind shear increases by Monday.

    Disturbance 39 has been analyzed farther north than where it was located yesterday. It is located along 75W between Haiti and eastern Cuba. It is drifting slowly to the west. The system is expected to track to the west to west-northwest. By Monday and Tuesday, it is expected to be in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are not expected to be favorable for development. Therefore, we think development chances are relatively low (10 percent).

    Disturbance 44 is about to emerge off the west coast of Africa. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development as it tracks west to west-northwest across the deep tropical Atlantic. It is no immediate threat to land areas. The chance of development is 90 percent.

    Disturbance 43 is located along 29W. It is moving west near 20 mph. The system is weak and is expected to remain weak as it tracks west. It has a near zero chance of development.
     
  13. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Near Winnie, TX.
     
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  14. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Jerry
    Tropical Storm Jerry is located about 275 miles to the southwest of Bermuda. Sustained winds are estimated to be near 60 mph. Jerry is forecast to bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to Bermuda later today into tomorrow as it passes just northwest of the island. Beyond then, the system will likely accelerate out to sea to the east while weakening.
    Karen
    Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Karen is located about 110 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It currently has winds near 40 mph and is moving towards the north at around 8 mph. Karen will likely bring a round of heavy rain and gusty winds to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through tonight as it tracks across the region. Our forecast confidence decreases in the extended range, but we still think Karen will turn more towards the west this weekend.

    Lorenzo
    Tropical Storm Lorenzo is located about 300 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It currently has winds near 65 mph and is moving towards the west-northwest at around 16 mph. The system will likely continue to strengthen significantly over the next several days as it tracks towards the northwest. No land impacts are expected over the next week.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    Disturbance 39 has been reanalyzed just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance currently has limited shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it. Conditions could become marginally favorable for development later this week as it tracks towards the west-northwest. The system will likely bring increasing rain chances to south Texas and northeastern Mexico this weekend. The chance of tropical development is 10 percent.

    Disturbance 43 is located along 40W and is moving towards the west near 14 mph. The system continues to be disorganized, and conditions aren't favorable for development. Tropical development is not expected.
     
  15. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    :D Trash ass ABC13.

    Between that & posting old Harvey video during Imelda...:rolleyes:

     
    Sajan and TexasTofu like this.
  16. Sooty

    Sooty Contributing Member

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    Are there any negatives in getting an elevation survey for our home? Or will it likely just increase our flood insurance premium?

    We flooded during Harvey and Imelda and looking to get quote for raising our home, and potentially annoying the city about the drainage works in the neighborhood which was meant to happen a few months ago.

    We're not in a flood zone, just flooded a couple of times. Trying to find legal stuff on it but can't find anything, and don't want to flag the insurance premium.
     
  17. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    [​IMG]

    Karen
    Tropical Storm Karen is located about 340 miles to the southeast of Bermuda. It currently has winds near 40 mph and is moving towards the east-northeast at around 10 mph. Karen is forecast to meander well to the southeast of Bermuda through Sunday and weaken to a remnant low. It is likely to dissipate over the western North Atlantic by Sunday or Monday and not affect any land areas.

    Lorenzo
    Hurricane Lorenzo is located about 1100 miles to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It currently has winds near 145 mph and is moving towards the north-northwest at around 13 mph. The system will turn to the north through Sunday, then turn to the northeast early next week. Lorenzo is forecast to impact the Azores as a hurricane or strong extratropical low late Tuesday into Wednesday.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    A weak disturbance may form in the northwestern Caribbean by Tuesday of next week. This weak disturbance is forecast to slowly push to the west-northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and move into the coastal areas of northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by next Friday. Upper-level conditions may be marginal for development for later next week across the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, the disturbance will enhance showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf coast late next week. There is a 10 percent chance of development for the middle to the latter part of next week.

    Disturbance 39 has dissipated off the lower Texas coast. It has been removed from our analysis.
     
    Joshfast likes this.
  18. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Tropical Depression Fifteen

    Tropical Depression Fifteen is located about 200 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Winds are estimated to be near 35 mph. The system could strengthen into a tropical storm later today as it tracks northwestward and passes just east of the Cabo Verde Islands. It will likely bring a round of heavy rain and gusty winds to the islands later today. We then expect dissipation to occur by Thursday over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch

    Disturbance 52 is located in the far northwestern Caribbean Sea near Belize. The disturbance is expected to track northwestward and into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development later this week as it turns more towards the north across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of our model guidance is indicating that a tropical depression or weak tropical storm could form before the system tracks northeastward into the Louisiana coast on Saturday. Regardless of development, the northern Gulf coast will likely see a round of heavy rainfall and gusty winds this weekend. There is a 30 percent chance of tropical development.


    Disturbance 51 is located along 52W and is moving towards the west at around 15 mph. This general motion will likely continue this week. Conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development over the next few days as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. There is a 10 percent chance of tropical development.

    The remnants of Melissa have been absorbed into a frontal boundary and we removed it from our analysis.
     
    Joshfast likes this.
  19. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Active Systems
    None

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch

    Disturbance 55 is currently located over the Bay of Campeche. It is currently producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity. The disturbance will likely track slowly northward over the next few days across the western Gulf of Mexico. The system will have a brief window to develop on Friday before it becomes absorbed by a cold front on Saturday. The chance of tropical development is 30 percent.


    Disturbance 56 has been identified exiting off the coast of Africa. It is currently producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions are not favorable for development, and the system will likely weaken over the next few days as it tracks northwestward. Tropical development is not expected.
     
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  20. Joshfast

    Joshfast "We're all gonna die" - Billy Sole
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    I appreciate the updates Xerobull.
     
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