The FanGraphs prospect guys gave Alvarez the same grade as their third rated Astros prospect and that's with them saying before the season they downgraded him based on what their MLB contacts said. The prospect ranking is almost solely based on his defense as they didn't question his hitting. ZiPs, while not a fan of his defensive numbers, liked his bat better than Reddick and Gurriel's going into the season.
All I am saying is that anyone that closely followed the Astros farm system and watched him play, would know that he was not the 7th best prospect in the Astros system and the Astros certainly did not value him as the 7th best prospect in the organization. Analytics with minor league players are a very important tool, and must be considered but often times they are not the end all and be all. Alvarez wasn't even that bad a fielder, and has a very good arm. He has deceptive speed, and after adding weight the year before last, he lost most of it. It is just an observation but one I have noticed, they undervalue guys that can just hit and may have position or defensive questions (which I don't think is entirely appropriate or fair for Alvarez). Also, while their valuation concerning prospect ranking is better than most other publications, it is often outdated as well.
Playing DH vs left field is huge. Analytically, that's the difference from Tucker and Whitley's rankings and Alvarez's before the season. Considering how tough defense is to rate (except plus plus and better defense), I'm not that concerned with their evaluation of Alvarez. Not much publicly available analytical information on defense, but what is out there is not glowing on Alvarez in left though not bad enough to say he's definitely not a LF. They have trended away from guys that they see as bat-only and they rate pitchers and low level hitters too highly.
I understand their basis for their rankings and their decisions, I just believe they are flawed in that regard.
I'm probably more accepting of noisy data than most as I'm used to dealing with it. My flaw is that I don't care about noisy data if it is mostly right. You make a decision. If it turns out wrong because of noisy data, you fix it as soon as you can. I'm against throwing out data just because it isn't perfect. Rarely are things perfect. On Alvarez specifically, I wish I was as confident about his defense as you are. Though, FanGraphs has been much more negative than me on his defense.
Just to be clear, data is extremely important. I am not one that says it has no value or that it should me marginalized. I do think it needs to be balanced with other considerations though. We also are dealing with subjective rankings as well (as there is an element of that). Concerning Alvarez' defense, I am not saying he is an all world defender, because he isn't. He is tall and long, and there are some balls that he doesn't get to as cleanly as someone like Barry Bonds. However, he has adequate speed for left field, he is sure handed and has a strong arm. He is capable of being solid out there. His coach a month ago said he would be a Gold Glove caliber fielder, I don't see that. However I do think he can man the position for a number of years. Fangraphs has had to radically change their profile of Alvarez since he came state side. Some of that is that Alvarez has lost weight and is a good learner, but some of it is just outdated or false narratives.
This is my concern. I see too often that people suggest we shouldn't use data because it has errors over the way things have always been done. The way things have always been done often has even more errors.
Austin Dennis has 4 hits today. Marty Costes had 3. Rough debut for Jayson Schroeder, 3 er 3bb 4K in 3 ip.
Corpus hit 6 home runs today and still lost. In the "from out of nowhere" category, Jonathan Bermúdez threw three perfect innings and struck out two. Bermúdez was the Astros' 23rd-round pick last year out of Southeastern, an NAIA school in Florida. He was caught up in this latest pitcher shuffle and he ended up in Corpus.
From the article tellitlikeitis just posted: Nice article. They switched him to starter last offseason, but if he ultimately becomes a reliever for us at least he has the mentality for it, ha. Also, Rodgers built up to 94 mph last night. If he can build that up as a reliever, maybe he can actually help. He was still in the 91/92 range when he gave up the homer.
What’s the theory on Whitley? I thought he was as close to can’t miss as can get. Maybe needs more PEDs.
How long before we get the truth about Whitley. He is either hurt or there are off the field issues. He is getting hit hard.... era approaching 12-13. I don’t buy that it is a small sample like Luhnow said or he is just struggling... not to this extent.
