2019 Astros Minor League Thread

Wrenn is obviously not going to have a ~.500 BABIP, but I'm encouraged by what he's done. He's making more contact and walking more. He might be a bit of a reverse swing changer, in that he's running a career high GB rate and has yet to hit a pop up. If he can be a slap hitter with good plate discipline, that's a fine 4th OF with his speed and defense. I'm thinking something like Delino Deshields or Travis Jankowski.

 

For the Astros to have a bad long term outlook, they will likely have a lot of injuries to the wrong players and a poor attrition rate for them to not be a division contender. Though, the same regarding injuries could happen this year at the wrong time. Verlander and Cole go down just before the playoffs and Astros odds go from about 25% to standard for a division winner (probably close to 8% assuming Yankees and Red Sox rebound into behemoths). I don't expect the Astros to win the division every year for the next 5 years as stuff will happen in some year that they can't overcome.

I don't expect Luhnow to sit on his knees. While I think it will be hard to duplicate the Morton, Cole, and Verlander acquisitions, he'll do something and he likely has a decent starting point already.

I expect Altuve will regress a lot. I don't expect Bregman to play like he did last year going forward, but him having a career ending injury would be the one thing by itself that would likely dramatically hurt the Astros long term outlook.

 

Agree the increased walk rate is encouraging. But he’s still striking out too much. I won’t be surprised at all if he carves out a career as a 4th/AAAA OF, but if I’m betting on who reaches the majors between McCormick and Wrenn, for now my money is on McCormick.

 

Wrenn was at one point viewed as a top 5 draft pick in his class. He has had a lot of issues off the field involving mental health and personal issues.

He isn't ready to sky rocket up the charts, but it is possible as more time passes, we seem him get closer to what he was expected to be based on his tools.

 

Nice read on Alvarez in the Statesman:

“It’s all just part of the process,” Alvarez said. “I came out in spring training with a game plan to work harder on my pitch recognition, I’m sticking to it, and everything is turning out OK. I see myself as a high-average guy, but I also want to be a high-homer type of guy. I’m trying to get the ball in the air, and the results are starting to show.”

Are they ever. On opening weekend in New Orleans, Alvarez, whose first name is pronounced Jhor-don, cranked four homers over a 24-hour span. The most impressive part? His first five home runs went to the opposite field. The left-handed hitter, Baseball America’s No. 34 overall prospect, isn’t pull-crazy like so many power hitters today.

“The oppo power gives him even more flexibility in his approach, being able to handle velocity and off-speed,” Putila said. “He has a really good swing path. It comes naturally to him.”

Storey said, “Yordan has expanded his game, taking the ball to all fields. He lets the ball get deep into the box. Hitting to the opposite field is almost easier for him. He’ll also patient.”

“I’m swinging hard, and when I get the ball up in the air, it goes,” Alvarez said. “It’s a hot streak right now, but the pitchers are adjusting, so it’s my job to get on base, take a walk. I’ve seen this before.”

“He is making strides defensively, and more work needs to be done there,” Storey said. “But I think he can be a plus defender in left field. As for first base, we’ll keep the doors open for him.”

https://www.statesman.com/sports/20190415/scary-good-yordan-alvarez-muscling-express-to-top-of-pcl

I can definitely see the Fred McGriff comparison with his swing.

 

That is awful pessimistic. Altuve looks to still be prime- and I'd think the vast majority of his contract he's all star or solidly above average- if not MVP level.
I saw nothing Bregman last year, combined with his age and his makeup to believe that will be the best we ever see from him.

I'm not a massive raw raw homer- but the quality and quantity of arms coming through and the makeup of the regulars lead me to be very bullish long term, and the ages on Altuve and Bregman really make me question the idea of "a lot of regression" or "oh, that's probably an anomoly.

 

So, I feel like you had a blurb on everyone in the system- except for a guy I'm really curious about (as I see Springer and Marisnick being gone in 2 years when they hit Free Agency (and Brantley and Reddick are up the same year).
Ronnie Dawson. Good? Maybe good? MLB regular upside? 4th OF type? No future in the majors? What's your take on him. I'm sort of intrigued.

 

Disappointed in Dawson so far. He really raised his stock over the last 12 months by changing his body and improving his defense, but so far this season he is striking out far too much in AA to be considered a future everyday player in the majors. But he’s hitting for power and the defense/speed will be there, so there’s plenty of time to improve and reach his high ceiling. But for now I’m disappointed and would project him to be a frustrating 4th OF.

 

Tucker's life is officially over at the tender age of 22. You read it here first, people.

 

On Altuve, he'll be 32 in 2023. Very few players remain as good as he is until they are 32 and almost all of them lately have walked a lot more than Altuve. Altuve depends a lot on his power, speed, and bat speed. I expect he'll be a better version of Michael Brantley. Still good.

On Bregman, in the last decade or so, I can only think of one position player that was able to maintain MVP-caliber performance consistently over a 6-year period. I expect Bregman is in the non-Trout tier of players that put up MVP-caliber type performances in the good year(s).

 

Altuve can decline and still be an all star. I don’t see his bat to ball skills fading by 2023
I see no reason why Bregman can’t live between 4-7 WAR for the duration of his contract. Nobody is Trout, and Bregman wasn’t last year either. But I think last year will be fairly typical of his remainder of his contract. His floor is really high and I think it’s improving

 

Mickey Storey is the Astros AAA manager and Pete Putila is in charge of the Astros player development. They know what they are talking about when it comes to evaluating their own players.

Their comments should give the fans some opinions of Alvarez' defense and ability to stay there.

 

The point is, that is the great unknown. Four years is a long time in baseball. The game isn't static. Some players will get hurt or under perform. Some players will exceed expectations.

 

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I'm not buying it. Sure, right now at age 21 he can play LF. The dude is a monster. He's listed at 6-5, 225 LBS. That weight is probably 15-20 pounds low at a minimum. Astros are big on defense. If he fills out and puts on more weight as he ages... he's a DH/1B in a few years.

 

Sure. I just think Altuve declining a lot and Bregman having last year be an outlier are 20th percentile outcomes.

 

Another homer for Alvarez. **** it, call him up.

 

When do you think we'll (realistically) see him promoted to Corpus? May-June?

 

Right around the draft. Early June.

 

Lol hopefully later than sooner. Moving from Durham, NC to Austin in late June and I hope to catch a game down in fayetteville before I leave.