2019 Astros Minor League Thread

The owners want to protect the brand. I never asserted that the minors made money for the teams directly. Prospects are an investment and my point was twofold: first, that it’s hard to see why owners don’t see an extra $6M/yr max as worthwhile to maximize return on their investment in prospects, and second, that owners don’t see the loss in value as a result of damage to their brands via the PR hit. Your reference to free agency is a totally separate issue but it furthers my point. Fans aren’t as quick to chastise owners not giving tens of millions to guys who are already millionaires. But it’s pretty universal that fans think paying minor leaguers <$10k/yr is reprehensible.

The owners “fighting tooth and nail on every issue” may explain their logic, but if that is indeed true, it’s a really stupid/lazy way for them to manage their business.

 

If owners thought additional money would maximize their ROI, they would do it. I suspect they are looking at ways to improve nutrition cost effectively (i.e., it helps them make more money).

On the PR hit, they are going to get a PR hit some place. Doing one decent deed doesn't help them (is it really even a decent deed when you stop screwing someone over as much as you did before?). People aren't going to give them much credit for such a small thing while there are other issues out there being championed by proven players fans know. Also, I don't see money to minor leaguers as a separate issue for the owners. They can "fix" a lot of issues with $6M or $500K as money spent on one thing doesn't go to other things.

The owners likely see paying minor leaguers as a concession they would give to the MLBPA in exchange for something of value. So far the MLBPA has said "these aren't our members, screw them. We will collectively bargain the draft, limits to signing bonuses for draft picks, prevent draft picks from signing MLB deals so they can't take away a job from a current member, and let an MLB team be the sole judge of whether that team is manipulating service time."

 

Progress, we'll see what comes of it:

Major League Baseball suggested sweeping changes to the minor leagues -- including a significant increase in salaries, higher standard of living conditions and better transportation -- during an initial collective-bargaining session with the group that oversees the minors, sources familiar with the meeting told ESPN.

After years of weathering criticism and lawsuits regarding minor league pay, MLB appears ready to remedy what long has been considered substandard treatment of its future players. The meeting took place within the last month, around the same time the Toronto Blue Jays were finalizing a new wage scale for their minor league players, which was first reported by The Athletic. The working agreement between MLB and the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues, which operates Minor League Baseball, expires in September 2020.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26298523/mlb-eyes-higher-salaries-minors

 

At a certain point, avoiding the PR backlash has to be worth the relatively small sum. For a league that makes 10 billion dollars, it seems foolish to continue leaving yourself exposed over 50 million divided by 30 teams.

 

With just 30 guys left in big league camp (2 of which will go on the 60 Day DL), the minor league rosters should be pretty much set; my last guess before they’re official:

AAA:
C: Stubbs, Ritchie
IF: Reed, Tanielu, De Goti, Toro, Jones, Mayfield
OF: Tucker, Straw, Fisher, Alvarez, Goetzman
SP: Whitley, C Martin, Armenteros, Rodgers, F Valdez
RP: Bostick, Sneed, C Perez, Emanuel, McCurry, Deetz, tbd waiver claim
DL: Martes
Inactive/Released: Quintana, Ferrell, Winkelman, Garza, Nunez, Feldmann

AA:
C: Robinson, Flores, Canelon
IF: Birk, A Sierra, Rojas, Duarte
OF: Matijevic, Wrenn, Dawson, Julks, Benedetti, McCormick
SP: Bukauskas, Bielak, Bailey, Ivey, Adcock, J Hernandez, Javier, Hartman
RP: Scheetz, Pinales, McKee, N Hernandez
Inactive/Released: LaRue, Saldana, G Valdez, Y Ramirez, C Sierra, Duncan, Blanco

High A:
C: Papierski, Manea, R Castro
IF: Adams, T Dawson, Arauz, M Sierra, Shaver
OF: McKenna, Meyers, Beer, De La Cruz, LaCroix
SP: Solomon, B Abreu, Donato, L Garcia, Mushinski, L Rodriguez, E Sandoval, Collado
RP: Hiraldo, Paredes, Sanabria, DeJuneas
DL: J Solis
Inactive/Released: Rosado, H Paulino, Castellanos, House, H Martin, Serrano, Angarita

A:
C: Salazar, Holderbach, Campos
IF: Schreiber, L Santana, Pena, E Valdez, Dennis
OF: Taylor, Adolph, Costes, Machado, A Pineda
SP: Deason, Freure, Hansen, Conine, Hardy, Ruppenthal, Dubin, Moclair, Daniels, N Rodriguez
RP: Bermudez, France
Inactive/Released: Cabral, Figueroa, Billingsly, Henderson, Conn, J Gonzalez, Tejada, Rivera, Marquez, Encarnacion, J Pineda, Hensley, Wielansky, Mattix

Extended Spring, to be assigned to Low A:
C: Perry, N Rodriguez, R Sanchez, J Paulino
IF: J Perez, Cueta, Nova, Carrasco, Urdaneta, Y Ramirez, S Mendoza
OF: W Abreu, J Ramirez, A Santana, H Martinez, R Rodriguez
P: Schroeder, Macuare, M Ramirez, Jaquez, Robaina, Mejia’s, Bravo, Bello, Lopez, De Paula, Solano

Extended Spring, to be assigned to GCL:
C: J Alvarez, Hurtado, Toro, G Castillo
IF: Mascai, J Castillo, Espinosa, Murillo, J Mendoza
OF: Pinto, A Castillo, Giron, Y Carrillo
P: E Rodriguez, Tokar, J Lopez, Torres, Chavez, Jimenez, Bermudez, Mezquita, Medina, Garcia, Cobos

 

Based on Hinch’s comments and the Chron article today, I expect Deetz to start the year on the DL, and I suspect they are trying to find a taker for Reed.

 

Does Reed even have options anymore? Since 2016 was his first year in the majors, I think 2016 may be the first, 2017 the second, and 2018 the third, but I'm not too sure about this.

 

Yes, he has 1 option year remaining. My guess is they are waiting to option him because if a team trades for him he has more value if he has not yet been optioned.

 

I'm probably too cynical about these things. I typical see MLB as a collection of 30 rich guys trying to maximize World Series Odds and/or money with little regard to do what is right.

 

I keep looking at this lineup and think....that rotation and OF likely is better than the Orioles.

 

I put that roster at 60 - 70 wins in the majors. It's stacked

 

I really do think that AAA roster would put up >18 fWAR, which would be more than the Orioles and Marlins are projected for.

 

I think depth (negative WAR) would do it in over a season. Short series....would he tough.

 

Nobody thinks they actually give a f**k on an ethical level, but bad PR is something companies usually try to avoid if at all reasonable. It just seems stubborn on their part, particularly with a labor stoppage looming.

The players are gonna press this angle strong (never mind they are equally at fault). Pretty damn cheap all considered to remove that gun from play.

 

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2...-prospects-worth-professional-baseball-teams/

Really good article on prospect valuation.

 

What struck me about this article (among other things) is the $2M value on grade 35 prospects. By this math, a package of Kit Scheetz, Carlos Sanabria, and Osvaldo Duarte would be worth $6-12M (all 3 are grade 35+ on Fangraphs). That means theoretically they could flip those 3 guys for Nick Castellanos.

 

I think the market value for free agents is based more of $/projected WAR than $/actual WAR as teams are making deals based on what they expect to happen instead of paying guys for what actually happened. The 15% difference in $/projected WAR and $/actual WAR is mostly sunk costs from teams overpaying because they have to have "X", underestimate aging, sign too long of deal, evaluated a player incorrectly, sign a player that has an unexpected severe injury, and/or are just being stupid (i.e., the Orioles signing Chris Davis to a stupid deal doesn't impact costs for most free agents today). If teams keep signing free agents other than stars to shorter deals, I expect the 15% difference will shrink significantly. As such, I'd guess the values in this article overestimate value by about 15% for prospects, though this is a small quibble as I expect the error in their values are likely greater than 15% due to unpredictable aspects of baseball.

 

Hmmm...something tells me that the GMs don't use this same theoretical math.

 

OF Drew Ferguson has been designated by the Giants. Since he was a Rule 5 selection, the other teams will get a chance to pick him up (with the same Rule 5 restrictions), if they all pass, he will go back to Houston. Not sure they have room for him with Tucker, Straw, Fisher, Alvarez, and possibly Goetzman all slated for AAA.

 

I hope he goes through waivers and we trade him back to SF (so he gets to play in AAA for them) for somebody in A-ball. He just has no place here, like you said.