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2019 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Nov 7, 2018.

  1. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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  2. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    Every time I look at our 99-08 drafts it gets a little more disgusting. They somehow fell into 2 great players in 04 (then proceeded to give one of them away), but aside from those 2 a decade of drafting led us to...

    99 Chris Sampson (who we drafted as a f**king infielder)
    00 Chad Qualls
    01 Matt Albers
    02 Mark McLemore
    03 Josh Anderson
    05 Brian Bogusevic
    06 Bud Norris
    07¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    08 Jason Castro

    Such an utter disregard for the farm.
     
    #202 sealclubber1016, Mar 5, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2019
    vince, Marteen and Nook like this.
  3. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Yup. There is a reason Jerry Hunsicker has enough.
     
  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    2019 Rule 5 Eligibles:


    RHP Brandon Bailey
    RHP Ronel Blanco

    RHP Akeem Bostick
    RHP Chad Donato
    RHP Justin Ferrell
    RHP Ralph Garza
    RHP Jose Hernandez
    RHP Cristian Javier
    RHP Carson LaRue

    RHP Brendan McCurry
    RHP Enoli Paredes
    RHP Hansel Paulino
    RHP Erasmo Pinales
    RHP Leovanny Rodriguez
    RHP Cesar Rosado

    RHP Abdiel Saldana
    RHP Carlos Sanabria
    RHP Edgardo Sandoval
    RHP Cy Sneed
    RHP Gabriel Valdez

    LHP Brett Adcock
    LHP Kent Emanuel
    LHP Ryan Hartman
    LHP Carlos Hiraldo
    LHP Alex Winkelman

    C Oscar Campos
    C Ruben Castro
    C Scott Manea
    C Jamie Ritchie
    C Chuckie Robinson

    1B Taylor Jones

    3B Abraham Toro

    SS Jonathan Arauz
    SS Miguelangel Sierra

    INF Juan Pineda
    INF Nick Tanielu
    INF Ronaldo Urdaneta
    INF Enmanuel Valdez


    UTIL Alex De Goti
    UTIL Osvaldo Duarte
    UTIL Jack Mayfield
    UTIL Antonio Nunez

    OF Yordan Alvarez
    OF Carmen Benedetti
    OF Ronnie Dawson

    OF Bryan De La Cruz
    OF Carlos Machado
    OF Hector Martinez
    OF Andy Pineda
    OF Stephen Wrenn

    Definitely protected:
    Alvarez
    Toro
    Bailey

    Probably protected:
    Dawson
    Adcock
    Hartman
    Javier

    Protected with a good season:
    Bostick
    Donato
    Hernandez
    Paredes
    Pinales
    Arauz
    E Valdez
    Benedetti
    De Goti

    Darkhorses:
    Blanco
    Paulino
    Sandoval
    Manea
    Robinson
    M Sierra
     
  5. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    Preseason finals matchups are pretty fun bets. You can get some really good odds, and it's fun to choose teams before the season. I hit on HOU/LAD in 2017 and barely missed on the 2019 super bowl (had NO/NE...stupid refs).

    Yankees Cubs (23/1) is a great pick. I may do that. Astros Cubs is 25/1, too.

    I love the Cubs odds this year. People are sleeping on CHC. The NL is wide open. I don't think LAD, WAS, PHI, or STL are going to be as good as people are projecting. CHC is in a tough division, but they could very well be the last ones standing in the NL when it's. MIL and COL provide some truly fun odds (NYY/COL and HOU/COL are 70 and 75 to 1), but that's obviously way riskier. Gotta decide soon! I can't see myself choosing anyone in the AL besides NYY and HOU.
     
  6. prospecthugger

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    It very possibly doesn't matter, but I'm like 75% sure Alvarez isn't eligible until the following offseason.
     
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    That list was taken from a post on Orange Whoopass, and I believe the poster took it from Roster Resource. But based on his milb player page I think you’re right (it shows he signed in 2016.
     
  8. Buck Turgidson

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    Check again, lots of corrections to the Roster Resource info.
     
  9. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Ok I’m officially letting Nick Tanielu’s spring performance affect my expectation for him. There are very few stats that I think matter in spring training games, but home runs is one of them; you can’t fake hitting the ball out of the park. If Tanielu is able to take a big step in power, say from a 10 HR/year guy to a 15 or 20 HR/yr guy, without sacrificing much of his on base ability, he suddenly becomes a viable everyday 2B or 3B or at least a bench bat.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Took a look at each position player on Houston’s projected roster to see what they were like as minor leaguers and identify the common threads of each player; here are some notes that might be useful as we watch minor leaguers this year:

    The most common thread was avoiding strikeouts. Of the 14 players expected to get 100+ PA for Houston this year, only George Springer was strikeout prone in the minors. Every other player had at least one extended period where they had a k rate below 17%. 22% seems to be a threshold that (unless you're Springer) if you strikeout more than that, you won't play for the Astros (for long).

    They are ok with guys not hitting for much power in the minors. Again, except for Springer, every player had at least 1 extended period where they hit very few home runs. That said, aside from Michael Brantley and Tony Kemp, every other player showed at least double digit HR power at some point in the their minor league career.

    Given that Gurriel and White can both passably play multiple positions, every player on Houston's roster displayed some measure of defensive value in the minors.

    They are ok with guys not walking much in the minors. Every player (again, except Springer) had a single digit walk rate over at least 1 extended period in the minors. That said, the majority of guys (everyone except Gurriel, Diaz, and Marisnick) showed ability to sustain a double digit walk rate at some point in the minors.

    Based on that, here are the guys I think match Houston's preferred profile the most:

    SS Jonathan Arauz: has defensive value and low strikeout rates. Hasn't hit for a ton of power but has displayed enough that he definitely fits the mold of current Astros. Typically had a fairly low walk rate but did post double digits in A ball last year.

    SS Freudis Nova: Low k rate, very high defensive value, enough power (especially for a teenager). Hasn't shown ability to walk but given his age that shouldn't be a concern.

    SS Alex De Goti: His AAA numbers paint him as a guy Houston would like. Low k rate, decent walk rate, solid power, defensive value.

    2B Luis Santana: had more walks (11.2%) than strikeouts (9.5%) last year. Also hits for power and has defensive value.

    C Garrett Stubbs: His AAA numbers show him with average power combined with low k rate and high walk rate. The fact that he is a plus defensive catcher makes him even more appealing.

    Other who fit the bill (k rate <22%, average or better power, defensive value):
    CF Jacob Meyers
    3B Enmanual Valdez
    CF Alex McKenna
    UT Josh Rojas
    CF Ross Adolph
    C Nathan Perry
    C Mike Papierski
    UT Austin Dennis
    C Ruben Castro
    OF Wilyer Abreu
    OF Juan Ramirez
    OF Chas McCormick
    C SCott Manea
    OF Marty Costes
    IF Nick Tanielu
    C Chuckie Robinson
    C Oscar Campos
    IF Jack Mayfield
    C Lorenzo Quintana
    OF Carlos Machado
    DH Seth Beer (fits the offensive profile but doesn't have defensive value; maybe makes him a trade candidate; same could be said for Yordan Alvarez)
     
    #210 Snake Diggit, Mar 12, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2019
    Nippystix likes this.
  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Kemp hit 10 homers in AAA in 2017, though this was after his initial call up.
     
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    1B Victor Mascai is being promoted from the DSL to the GCL. He and C Carlos Hurtado are the two DSL hitters whose numbers intrigued me most last season.
     
  13. prospecthugger

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    Fangraphs finished their Astros list.

    Really positive write ups for Bielak, Paredes, Ramirez, and Solis, I thought. They seem kind of down on Schroeder, Adolph, Valdez, and Beer.

    They also didn't have a lot of names that at least intrigued me, like Jacquez, Torres, Donato, Jiminez, Meyers, Perry, Hartman, Jones, Pinales, Bostick, Adcock, Mushinski, France, Hansen, Moclair, Cobos, Tokar, and Lopez. They even teased Willy Collado as an interesting prospect, and didn't mention him. I didn't expect all of those guys to be listed, but that many surprised me. It seems like they're going less in depth as the season draws closer.
     
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  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Yeah I bet they just ran out of time and also maybe didn’t want to highlight how much deeper Houston’s system is than others (39 is already a very high number of guys to profile for them). Of the lists they have released, only St. Louis (40) and Tampa (54!!) had more prospects profiled.

    Surprised at how high they graded Armenteros, Solis, Ramirez, Paredes, Sanabria, Duarte, and Scheetz. Surprised at how low they graded Beer, Toro, Arauz, Stubbs, Matijevic, and all the guys that they didn’t even mention (mainly Tokar, Donato, Jaquez, Torres, Collado, and Jimenez).

    What a deep system considering how good the big league teams is.
     
    #214 Snake Diggit, Mar 14, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The Astros are third in covered prospects so far. I'm guessing it had more to do with guys not making the grade than the season getting closer. I don't expect them to finish by the season.
     
    #215 Joe Joe, Mar 15, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019
  16. Buck Turgidson

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    Toronto of all teams is leading the way on trying to make Minor League salaries a livable wage. Increasing all their players' salaries by 40-56%.

    https://theathletic.com/873079/2019...ague-salaries-but-acknowledge-more-is-needed/

    Comes on the heels of this now-deleted tweet from their PR guy:



    My favorite comment from the Deadspin article about this: "I’m outraged that Doordash pays its drivers so little that they have to play minor league ball to make ends meet."

    eta: from a 2nd Athletic article https://theathletic.com/873079/2019...ague-salaries-but-acknowledge-more-is-needed/

    Murov stressed that the pay increases are a natural progression from the Jays’ investments in other resources for minor-league players – high-performance medical and mental support; a greater emphasis on a healthy diet through staff nutritionists and better clubhouse food; and improved facilities (weight rooms, for example, and the major construction, now in its nascent stage, for new training quarters in Dunedin).

    I've been banging this drum wrt the Astros and competitive advantages for a while now. Hopefully they are noticing these developments.
     
    #216 Buck Turgidson, Mar 18, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2019
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  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Sadly, I expect Astros are/will look into ways of improving diet, weight rooms by doing cost effective things other than increasing pay for minor leaguers.
     
  18. Buck Turgidson

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    Snake Diggit likes this.
  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Yeah I have never understood why the orgs ever let this issue get so far ahead of them. As long as no one was complaining there was no reason to change, but once people started noticing a few years ago, they should have moved quickly before it became such a big deal. The PR hit has already eclipsed what it would have cost to just pay each minor leaguer a living salary. 200 prospects X $30,000 per year = $6M. And that’s the TOTAL outlay, not the net change. And for that price they not only get to avoid the PR hit, they could then expect more out of their prospects (I.e. dictate what activities they can engage in during the offseason, lengthen instructional leagues, etc.), which would improve outcomes and generate additional value. Hell, if each decade ONE guy who would have otherwise busted or quit ends up becoming a good big leaguer because he was able to focus year around, the system pays for itself. It’s ridiculous.
     
  20. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    MLB teams don't make money directly off the minors to my knowledge. To afford MLB free agents and 1st round pick signing bonuses, more than minor leaguers are getting the shaft. PR fixing one problem doesn't help the owners as there will still be tweets from Keuchel lamenting the struggles of the common former Cy Young winner, Verlander for free agents at large, Bregman for great players with little current financial incentive for great play, etc. As such, owners just fight every issue tooth and nail even when they look like billionaires doing stereotypical billionaire stuff. I've said this before, MLBPA needs to bring in minor leaguers as junior members.
     

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