Ancient history bro, that was so long ago. Ziggy went 7-5 and got hot in the playoffs, he's got this all figured out!
Thinking about the 30 point TOTAL number. The difference between the #40 and the #75 flex option last year was that same 30 points. Even less difference between #50 and #90. We've picked about 70 flex guys so far. At some point, there's just very little much marginal value between the guys on your roster and the guys on the waiver wire. It's all about small advantages, and hoping your top couple of picks produce.
I respectfully disagree with that logic because you are comparing flexes to flexes. My point, based on analytics: If your RB1 goes down, you have little to no chance of replacing even 50% of that production on the waiver wire. If you QB1 goes down, you could recapture 80% of that production from the waiver wire. That is all it is.
Wholly Batman you guys put a lot of thought into this... My preparation consist of a dart board, a list of names and a blindfold... And that usually puts me in strong contention every season...
I agree with you there. If you've got the handcuff already you might get 75% of your RB1 but there's no guarantee. But RB1s aren't being drafted in the same place that QB's are, for the most part. The range of flex players I described are the ones available in the mid rounds of the draft in a similar position to the QBs who get drafted in those spots (we are through 8 QBs now and I suspect 18+ will probably be drafted in our league). I'm not arguing that any QB brings the surplus value that Bell or Gurley do. But the franchise RB list is very short and those guys tend to go in the first round or two. There's a lot of mediocrity as you go a little further down the RB list.
@PhiSlammaJamma and @chrisjent, you guys are up... make sure you draft a person of need or you will be crucified...
Handcuff strategy has been proven sub-optimal because it almost always devalues your RB1 expected value. Usually these days the handcuff doesn't inherit the workload of a workhorse back. There are a couple exceptions like Tevin Coleman. Optimal strategy is selecting another team's handcuff so your team gains strength while another team loses it. The most important lesson in Game Theory is as follows: "You don't need to beat the game, you just need to beat the opponent(s)" All I can do is allocate the highest amount of capital to the RB/WR positions since they are the most scarce positions. In this league there isn't as much of a difference between RB/WR because we are only required to start 1 of each. It is a unique format because it allows you to use value-based drafting moreso than other leagues where 2RB/2WR is the norm. Traditionally in this league I have always taken more WRs because I found there was value there, but with passing trending way down last year, there is more emphasis back on RBs again in FF. Couple that with picking 1st overall and it put me in a position to select RBs that I feel could all be very productive in a standard format. I also take into consideration the bust/injury rate of RBs is the highest among any position, so selecting 4 RBs in the first 5 rounds allows me to buy insurance policies. I actually would have considered taking Cam Newton as my QB at the end of round 6 because I felt there was value there in selecting him. He did not fall to me, so I am fine waiting for a QB later. Of course, when I won the title back in 2014 it was on the strength of JJ Watt's all-time DL season in which he lapped the field in fantasy points. Go figure.
In other words... He FINDS the JJ Watts. And it pays DIVIDENDS. Y'all PAY the JJ Watts and miss the playoffs.
