I'm aware of the day-to-day variances, and even addressed that in an earlier post. If you want to label it as an exception, I'd recommend you look at a 3-day moving average, which shows a nice, steady and consistent decline since April 18th. Air Langi - these are US numbers.
While numbers in the USA are going down atm. The fear is that USA is too big that the stats can't be shown as one country. While states like New York are on the downward trend other states are upward. The question is where on the curve are these states. And where is their peak. If these other states are at the bottom of their curve with an exponential growth it could bring the USA back to the death rate of April. There is unfortunately a lot of unanswered questions.
I'm glad that Texas is testing, we need to get the correct numbers no matter what... So the question is... How many times can a person be tested? T_Man
So, here's the thing. Starting May 13th, our governor had DSHS cook the books to make it look like cases were declining. He got caught... Texas Health Officials Separate Antibody and Viral Coronavirus Tests, Trends Change Little The Texan 5/26/20 On Thursday, the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) released new data that sorted out about 49,313 antibody tests that had previously been included in the total testing numbers along with the number of viral tests. Antibody tests, also known as serological tests, are used to determine if an individual has begun producing antibodies in response to the novel coronavirus. The antibodies will typically only be discoverable late in the span of the infection or after a patient is fully recovered. Viral tests are used to determine if an infection is currently active in an individual. While combining the positive results of both types of tests is useful in showing how far the virus has spread throughout the state in total, the combination skews the trend lines used to deduce how fast the virus is currently spreading. Despite Governor Greg Abbott’s statement at a press conference on Monday that DSHS was not “commingling” antibody and viral tests, the newly released DSHS data indicates that the data had indeed been mixed since May 13 — several days prior to the press conference. On May 13, DSHS reported the highest number of new tests to date: 49,259. With those test numbers came only 1,355 new cases, marking a low daily positive rate of 2.75 percent, well below the 7.5 percent average of the preceding week. With the new data, it appears that the state added in about 30,700 antibody tests to the reported tests on that day. Excluding that number, the daily positive rate would be 7.29 percent — much more in line with the trend at the time. However, that calculation is likely a little high, since there is no delineation between the positive viral tests and the positive antibody tests on that day. Of the total 49,313 antibody tests, DSHS says that 2,114 are positive — a rate of 4.29 percent. “The information that I have is for about a ten-day period or so, during which some antibody tests were coming in — it could have been a little bit longer than that — there was the inability for the counties to separate that out as it was received by the Department of State Health Services,” said Abbott in a Fox 7 interview when asked about the mixing of data. Abbott went on to note that the addition of the antibody tests had a relatively small effect on the positive rate. He used May 19 as an example, which saw the seven-day rolling average positive rate change from 4.29 percent to 4.70 percent with the removal of the antibody testing. Abbott said that moving forward, DSHS would continue to report the antibody and viral test numbers separately. The overall trends in the data, as Abbott also pointed out, have not significantly changed with the updated reporting. However, some county officials have expressed concerns about a potential commingling of other numbers in the near future that could be even more misleading. DSHS has recently updated their coronavirus case definition to include both laboratory-confirmed cases and “probable cases.” Previously, only laboratory-confirmed cases were counted. The new inclusion of probable cases leaves room for unconfirmed infections to be included in counts if a person meets certain criteria. As Collin County Judge Chris Hill pointed out at a recent commissioners court meeting, failing to clearly delineate the two types of cases could cause an appearance in a drastic increase in the spread of the virus even if the true number of infections is declining. A health official at the county meeting said that the cases would be distinguished, but it is unclear of when DSHS might make that data available.
Republicans: Millionaires and business are risk takers and deserve their money Also Republicans: Well Millionaires and Business should not be held responsible for risking their employees lives during the pandemic . . .so since they taking that risk if an employee dies or gets sick . . .they should not be held accountable for being reckless. So let's pass this bill to make sure the employees cannot sue the employees . . .. . . .. Rocket River
They're (Republican-millionaires) also the ones saying the working class WANTS TO WORK. "Texans LOVE TO WORK". - Abbott. Lulz.
When are you going back to your cube? I believe I heard that in one instance 1 person infected 94 out of 220ish people on that floor of the office building. Please keep us updated on your economic bravery. And no, I did not take your stapler.
Out of curiosity, when did you correct me, and about what, niño? And no, I do not have you ******* stapler.
Not to worry though, it's only the state capitol... Record jump in new coronavirus cases raising concerns of a surge in Austin The reopening of Texas may be partly to blame for Austin's record jump in new coronavirus cases. Travis County just had the biggest one-day jump in new cases since the start of the coronavirus outbreak. “Yesterday we had 86 new cases confirmed which was a new record for us in this outbreak in Austin. You can also see that over the past week or so we’ve been trending in an upward direction,” said Dr. Mark Escott, Interim Health Authority with Austin Public Health. "All the models that I’ve seen over the past week indicate that a surge is likely to begin soon." Austin Public Health (APH) plans to closely watch hospitalizations over the next week to two weeks to see if hospitalizations go up along with new cases. In the meantime, APH says they’re concerned about the impact of crowded bars and restaurants along with people not wearing masks, washing hands and staying six feet apart. “If we stop the social distancing, we are going to enter a surge which is going to threaten our health care systems ability to manage individuals and it’s going to threaten our ability to keep businesses open and keep jobs going,” said Dr. Escott. Also Tuesday, APH broke down last week's hospitalizations by race. From May 18 to 24, 76-percent of those hospitalized identified themselves as Hispanic. In addition, 16-percent identified as White and six-percent as African American. “We continue efforts at outreach to this community. We have public service announcements. We have mailers that have been sent out,” said Dr. Escott. During the briefing to Travis County Commissioners on Tuesday, APH also reported that the number of new cases at nursing homes is going down significantly. “I’m hopeful that this is an indication that we are getting a handle on the nursing home outbreaks,” said Dr. Escott. Dr. Escott finished Tuesday’s briefing saying he thinks the public will need to continue to be "careful" for another year when they're not at home. “We are going to live with this disease for the next nine months before there is a real substantial chance of having a vaccine that is widely available. Perhaps another year before that’s the case,” said Dr. Escott.
I am not liking the trend in number of new C19 hospitalization at Texas Medical Center. I took the tmc data published here: https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations/ and plotted the 7 day moving average. There appears to be a recent uptick trend in cases in Houston. I like new hospitalization data better than new cases since it'll be less sensitive to changes in testing. I wish there is new hospitalization data available for Texas as a whole. DSHS's dashboard only shows total hospitalization which includes the effect of existing patients recovering and dying. I hope public officials have the courage in closing things down again if things gets progressively worse. The infection is like a freight train with tons of inertia that will take weeks to slow. Public officials will have to do the hard thing since public sentiment may not be on their side of closing things down again.
Strange thing is that 2/3rds of the country wanted a slow reopening...the minority is those out there without the masks and acting like asshats. However, I doubt we close down again, unless things just get out of control. Trump is betting everything on the virus basically going away and the economy rebounding enough for him to have a chance to get reelected. If we're closed and the economy goes under even more, he knows he's done (If he had handled this with more sensitivity and tact, he'd probably be coasting to reelection right now...but that isn't Don the Con). And, since the Republican Party has basically given up all control to Trump, they are basically tying their waists to the handrails of the Titanic. The pandemic happens last year, or next year, I think, even Trump, would ease us back into things...but, because this is Trump's reelection year, all things are done on Trump time.
Between Abbott and Patrick we are screwed. They don't care about anything other than hanging on to Trump's puppet strings.
“We’re surging:” Alabama reports largest COVID-19 increases to date https://www.alreporter.com/2020/05/...a-reports-largest-covid-19-increases-to-date/
