not surprising. i know many (ok maybe just a few) diplomats from several countries who have been posted in beijing. basically everyone says you can't take anything china says at face value. everything is super secretive
The 100,000 death prediction assumes we are stay-home until May 30th. Two problems... 1) the current order from Trump is only until April 30th 2) ~10 states have yet to issue any order
Why can't companies just suspend people's pay and benefits? They're gonna end up wasting time and money attempting to hire replacements. Maybe they're trying to get cheaper workers because new employees start at the bottom.
How does this end before a vaccine happens? Think about it, tens of cases a couple months ago led to the thousands of cases we have now. We will do mitigation until April 31, then what? We are left with hundreds of active cases and the whole thing starts over again. Maybe we are buying time until testing and tracking get to the point that we can catch people and quarantine them. But this seems like its going to be an ongoing concern for a year or more.
Even if things are contained in the US come April 31st, it won't matter as long as we allow international flights to come in because it is unlikely the rest of the world will be fully contained anytime soon. Most likely most of us will get it within a year. If you are young and not immune compromised, you should be okay. We're being locked up so we don't all get it at once. There doesn't seem to be any focus on this now but we need to start gearing up to test for antibodies to show who has had the virus so we can get a reliable estimate on what % of the population already had the virus and has built up some immunity to it. On the bright side, it seems many countries are throwing tons of resources at finding a vaccine so we hopefully will see something that works in 2021.
There is this term, dark figure. And you can only see the results of fap with UV light, that is some secretive.
Got a few. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/4f74fc222b7041cd9cc3c52e62af1b8c https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_0/ https://info.gesundheitsministerium.at https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/issues/576
I think this ends when they they find the coronavirus equivalent of tamiflu, whether its an existing drug (hopefully - this would be a lot quicker) or a new one. We don't need a vaccine right away, but we need to make this less severe, where it's not putting endless people in hospitals for several weeks, and on ventilators and all that. Without that, you're right - it doesn't seem like society can really functionally get back to normal.
What are you talking about ??! The only channel I've seen with constant 'total cases and deaths' is CNN. But even if ALL did it, I don't understand why it would bother so much. CASES and DEATH should be the main factors during this situation. Once those factors are presented, one can extrapolate other factors. - China probably (damn sure) lied - there aren't enough tests (in US at least) - USA reacted late Are you trying insinuate something else ???
There is no doubt that the official number is lower than the actual number just like some other countries, where the testing capability was limited and testing criteria was restricted during the early stages of the epidemic. However, the estimate of 40,000 is likely overblown. Here are a few problems of the number. The number does NOT exclude deaths of other causes. Based on historical numbers, estimates of regular deaths vary between 10,000 and 16,000. During the quarantine, all local hospitals significantly reduced treatments of other diseases and focused primarily on COVID-19 patients. Therefore some people were indirectly affected by the pandemic and died of non-COVID-19 diseases. There are seven funeral homes within Huhan. The 40,000 estimate assumes that each one of them distributes 500 urns a day during the 12-day period before the Tomb-sweeping Day, which is clearly not the case. The Hankou Funeral Home, which was reported to order 5,000 urns, is the largest within Wuhan and it has a processing capacity of over one third of the entire city. It is responsible to handle bodies from 8 of the 23 designated hospitals for COVID-19 within Huhan. The 500 urns / day distribution rate came from someone within the Wuchang Funeral Home, which is the second largest in Wuhan. The funeral home has a processing capacity of around 20% of the entire city and is responsible to handle bodies from another 8 designated hospitals for COVID-19. Meanwhile, it is unclear whether the distribution rate will remain the same during the entire 12-day period. The original Chinese report mentioning about the shipments of 5,000 urns also explained that people could choose between one of the three colors provided by the funeral home. Therefore it is possible that the funeral home ordered more urns than they need within the period.
I'm perfectly ok with nurses/doctors/etc. posting information showing what they are going through. The public needs to be aware of the sacrifices that they are making, and if it helps just a few more people take this seriously and take social distancing more seriously, then I consider it a win. It also gives people that are not in hard hit areas a preview of what can happen. Hopefully it also helps lead companies or people to find any possible way to help. I like to @#!@ on China as much as the next person, but at least they have the excuse of having had to deal with covid in real time. What excuse does the US government have? And yet approval ratings are still around 60%. Mindboggling.
The virus also hit China at the worst possible time, when (1) nationwide travel peaked before the Spring Festival; (2) major holiday events took place, which led to massive gatherings of people; (3) local government officials in Wuhan were busy participating in annual city- and provincial-level government meetings in the first half of January.
They had already dealt with a host of other diseases they created themselves, like SARS and H1N1, so had the fast hospital building protocol in place. And once the emergency hits, socialist communism works a lot better than democracy where everyone thinks they can do their own thing and it will "work out". Millions of Americans have not listened to quarantine measures until a few days ago when the death toll domestically started rising. Even today, there is socializing between younger people who could be symptomless.
Darwinism. Only the fittest will survive now. Protect yourself and don’t give this disease to anyone else. I’m shut in and will come out my bunker in 6 weeks. Good luck everyone. Estimate at least 100,000 in America (but likely more) will die when it’s all over
One detailed case Man in 60s with no existing pathologies. First 3 days very mild symptoms low fever 37C,fatigue, chills, cough Next 5 days high fever 39 C Hospitalisation in the 8th day, recurring fever 39C every 4-5 hours. Given Oxygen, azythromycine + hydroxychloroqinue + antivirals Dramatic sudden deterioration, very low oxygen saturation Positive X-Ray in all 4 quarters, very high ferritine, d- dimer and infection indicators Ready to be put in ICU, was given anti-IL-6. Immediate improvement in all symptoms, left the hospital 9 days later. Doctors diagnosed Haemophagocytic syndrome. Looks like cytocine storms are very common.
It won’t completely end until a vaccine is found. But, something that could make a huge difference is massive amount of testing. If this new five minute test can be rolled out and is available in many many locations all over the country then I see where life could get back to normal fairly quick. But, these tests need to be able to be administered everywhere. I don’t know how practical that is, but maybe it’s possible. Quick easy tests, with instant results.
