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[OFFICIAL] Potential Dem brokered covention thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by ThatBoyNick, Feb 24, 2020.

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Should the candidate with the most delegates going into the convention be the nominee?

Poll closed Jul 24, 2020.
  1. Yes

    44.0%
  2. No

    16.0%
  3. It depends on how wide the margins are

    40.0%
  1. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    Donny?
     
  2. Major

    Major Member

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    What is Bernie's "situation"? When has the Dem party decided to toss out a viable candidate for their nomination?
     
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  3. Major

    Major Member

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    Except no one did that. All the reporting out of Iowa was that Bernie nearly won and missed it by less than 1%. The big story that night was Bernie almost pulling an unexpected upset - not Clinton amassing 700 delegates. That's total nonsense.

    It's an argument against your claim that it's impossible to overcome, given that it was literally overcome the last time the opportunity arose in a much more difficult situation.

    Yes, absolutely. Superdelegates are not how Pete or Amy or Liz hope to win this. Suggesting that it is, again, shows a lack of understanding of the race and the role of Superdelegates. There's no scenario where superdelegates are going to put those people over someone with many more delegates like a Biden or Bernie or maybe Bloomberg, depending on how campaign goes. Pete/Liz are hoping that no one will be close to a majority and they can present themselves as a compromise - or more likely, trade their haul of delegates to someone in exchange for something. Pete could, for example, go to Biden and say "I'll pledge my delegates to you in exchange for Sec of State". He can't have that influence if he has no delegates. Warren, in particular, can argue she's the only person that can bridge the gap between Bernie's delegates and the Never-Bernie delegates - but she has to still be relevant to do that.

    Here's some insight into Pete's delegate strategy - he's targeting districts he thinks are winnable to collect pledged district delegates even if he can't win states. He'll use that to have influence at the convention if even if he's not the nominee. He'd have even *more* influence if there were no superdelegates that the top contenders could alternately use to get over the top.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/27/buttigieg-super-tuesday-delegate-117816

    If a Biden is at 45% of pledged delegates after, for example, winning over Bloomberg delegates and Bernie is at 35%, Superdelegates could give it to Biden to get it over with. If there were no Superdelegates, Pete could use his 5% to extract more that much more from Biden.

    Pete/Amy's original strategy was to hope Biden/Bloomberg falter and they are the last moderate standing and go head-to-head vs Bernie and, again, pick up pledged delegates. But that seems highly unlikely at this point with Biden recovering and Bloomberg's money.
     
    #123 Major, Feb 27, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
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  4. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    This is exactly right. I've laid this out before for Warren. Her path to the nomination is entirely built around no one getting a clear win on the first ballot and her winning the compromise argument that holds the party together. It's not about convincing the super delegates to nominate her because there aren't enough of them to make any kind of difference. It's about convincing the pledged delegates who become free to vote their own way that she's the only one who can hold the party together.

    I'm less convinced Amy has any real strategy here personally beyond the Kasich "stay in to win my state" idea.
     
  5. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    I agree that's the most likely way Warren wins and I'm a Warren supporter. My only problem is if she is so far behind Bernie by the time of the convention, she would piss off most of her base if all the moderate delegates moved to her camp and caused her to overtake Bernie. It's not good for the party in the end.
     
  6. Major

    Major Member

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    Her scenario would have to have buy-in from Bernie - his delegates aren't going to move unless he's on board. That's one underrated aspect of his support - when delegates are free to vote, others are more likely to do their own thing whereas his delegates will probably be true to him until the end. The basic plan would have to be that he didn't ever intend to run for President in 2016 because he wanted her to run. And moderates aren't going to come on board with him but would support her. So he'd be magnanimous and in the best interests of the country, he'd step aside if moderates would agree to her. At least, that's the theory.
     
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  7. TheresTheDagger

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    Nate Silver weighs in after South Carolina. Buckle up Dems! Its gonna be an interesting July!

    p.s. I find it very interesting the Democrat National Convention is in July (13-16) almost 6 weeks before the Republican National Convention.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    What is the point of superdelegates if they're forced to give it to whomever has a plurality? it's like building a firewall that lights everything on fire.
     
  9. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    mass transit is good in places that build up, and bad in places that build out.
     
  10. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    Are you referring to Tesla's supercharging network as the reason why? Because I agree that is a important reason to want a Tesla over any other EV on the market currently.

    But I think Porsche made the better EV car in the Tycan. They obviously don't have the Tesla infrastructure so that is a huge negative.
     
  11. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    Tesla vs other EV's is a bit like comparing Apple to Android. Not completely though.

    Like Apple, Tesla has built everything from ground up. That is what make Apple phones so great, even though I will never buy an apple product. Its a superior product and lots of fore thought (like Tesla infrastructure) that they are a good decade ahead of everyone else. Musks goal is not to control the market (unlike Jobs), his goal is to keep Tesla alive long enough to force mass adoption. At that point, Tesla will return back to being a premium product with the latest innovations. Musk already has some genius project in the works to take advantage of the mass adoption of EV's.

    Starlink is another great example. Everyone thinks its so cool to have the globe surrounded by internet. But where people do not see the value is that Starlink drastically improves latency. In what companies spends tens, if not hundreds of millions a dollar a year to have the fastest data information possible at any given millisecond. Starlink will control the fastest internet in the world.
     
  12. Major

    Major Member

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  13. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Yeah ... we all understand that.

    But what you are doing is essentially adding transportation (not a means to) to the list of government duties.
     

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