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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Here is a very interesting analysis of the expected outcome of the election on a seats per party basis by Electoral Calculus. This model was apparently within three seats of predicting the Tories total seats in the 2017 election. Anyway, who knows if this will be right, but they are predicting a 46 seat Tory majority, as follows:

    348 - Tories
    225 - Labour
    013 - Lib Dems
    000 - Brexit
    001 - Greens
    041 - SNP

    This is there final prediction scenario, but they provide others and the explanation behind them at the link. This includes a "Worst case" scenario, which has the Tories winning only a 16 seat majority. Which would be enough to get Brexit done, if that is what it comes down to.
     
  2. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Here are the final numbers from the Guardian poll average, as of today - UK general election day.

    43% - Conservatives
    33% - Labour
    12% - Lib Dems
    03% - Brexit Party
    03% - Greens

    Again, there is a very nice graph at the link. Also, it is clear that the Conservatives and Labour have consolidated their support over the last couple of months at the expense of the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, respectively.

    The final margin in this poll average is 10 points. But of course just like here in the US, the vote is actually conducted in more bite-sized portions. The MP's will be elected district by district. So, what is the latest expectation for how that will play out?
     
  3. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    According to the latest YouGov Survey on a per constituency basis, the Tories expected margin of majority is now at 28. That is down substantially from an expected margin of 68 in an earlier model.

    Tories still set for majority but lead narrows, latest poll shows

    The Conservative party is on course to win a majority in Thursday’s election, although a new model of the British electorate suggests that Boris Johnson’s polling lead has shrunk and the outcome could be a hung parliament.

    According to a comprehensive survey by the pollsters YouGov, the Tories are set to win 339 seats, with Labour on 231, the Liberal Democrats on 15 and the Scottish National party on 41. This would hand the prime minister a majority of 28 in the House of Commons, down from 68 in an earlier model.

    The prediction suggests that Jeremy Corbyn has succeeded in narrowing Mr Johnson’s lead, particularly as some pro-Remain voters have returned to Labour.​

    But if the 28 seat majority comes to fruition, then Brexit should be finalized on schedule on or before the end of January.
     
  4. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Here is a primer for anyone wanting to get up to speed on the current UK election quickly:

    How it works

    General elections in the U.K. use a "winner takes all" system. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system, MPs each represent one of 650 constituencies which gives them a seat in the House of Commons. To become prime minister and form a government, a party needs to win more than half the seats in the House of Commons (though the exact number is lower than half the total because of Sinn Féin MPs not taking their seats plus non-voting members such as the speaker and his deputies). If all parties fall short, Britain has a hung parliament and deals must be done to form a government. When parliament was dissolved for the election last month, Johnson was 19 seats short of a majority (taking into account Sinn Féin MPs, vacant seats and the speaker).

    Scenarios

    A great night for Johnson: A majority of 50 or above would mean that Johnson’s election gamble has paid off handsomely. It should allow him to pass his Brexit deal comfortably by January 31, allowing his government to begin negotiations with the EU on a post-departure trade deal. Last month YouGov’s MRP model, which was the first to predict a hung parliament in 2017, forecasted a 68-seat majority for the Conservatives. But a new poll on Tuesday gave the Tories a 28-seat majority.

    A win, but only just: A majority of 15 MPs or fewer would allow Johnson to press ahead with his plans, but make him vulnerable to rebellions from backbench MPs. All Tory MPs are signed up to the deal Johnson agreed with the EU in October but a coordinated effort by Brexiteers on the right of the party could force him in the direction of a harder position in the next phase of negotiations. Theresa May called the 2017 election because she thought the 12-seat majority won by David Cameron in 2015 was too small to pass a Brexit deal.

    Hung parliament: A hung parliament would represent a humiliation for Johnson after weeks of leading in the polls. If the Conservatives won the most seats they would get the first chance to form a government, but doing so would be tricky — their erstwhile allies, the Democratic Unionist Party, are refusing to back the existing Brexit deal. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party would fancy their chances of passing legislation for a second Brexit referendum, which many MPs would then consider the only way to end the deadlock.​

    It takes 326 seats to win an outright majority in the House of Commons.
     
  5. Andre0087

    Andre0087 Member

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  6. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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  7. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Trump just screwed up the UK.(and many other countries).

    He vetoed and in effect forcefully closed down the WTO judge body
    which means that any country without bilateral agreements like Post Brexit UK, can be bullied and undermined by trade blocks (ie the EU) without any protection whatsoever
     
  8. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The WTO is probably not salvageable and needs to be shut down. However, it appears that President Trump is actually pushing for massive reform of the organization and its operations.

    With 165 members all needing to agree unanimously, I do not believe it is possible. But it probably makes sense to at least go through the motions so we can say we tried. In the meantime, the WTO is effectively shut down.

    Bilateral relations are the way to go. These multinational bodies sounded intriguing at the time they were first negotiated. But they have had their time and now it is time to move on.
     
  9. malakas

    malakas Member

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    What is almost certain is that it won't get fixed after the 11 months that the UK's transition period ends. So in the end they will be the ones who end up getting screwed and becoming free game for trade blocks to bully.
     
  10. malakas

    malakas Member

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    The "Red Wall" :rolleyes: are the Labour Leaver areas in the Northern England that have been voting Labour for decades.
     
  11. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The polls close in just under an hour. They are supposed to publish an "Exit poll" at about that same time. If this exit poll is correct - and many times they are not - then we may some idea about how this is going.
     
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  12. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Yeah..I think I read this morning that every exit poll was right, except the last one or smth..but they seem very reliable.

    My main focus point is to see Nigel Dodds lose his seat in NI.
    I despise this fool, a former terrorist who smuggled guns to kill people and who denied women and homosexual brits their rights for decades, and in his narcissism tried to play it kingmaker to get his ass handed to him and screw up his people.
     
  13. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Conservatives: 368

    Labour: 191

    SNP: 55

    Liberal Democrats: 13

    Plaid Cymru: 3

    Greens: 1

    Brexit party: 0

    Others: 22

    Conservative majority: 86
     
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  14. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    Well I guess Boris's "deal" will be implemented. This is better than a narrow Tory majority. I think you'll at least see some lousy deal get implemented instead of no deal since the ERG won't be able to block a deal on their own anymore.
     
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  15. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    This would be a majority of 86 seats, if it happens. This is a bigger majority for the Conservatives than any projection that I have seen prior to this moment. But this is only a projection, so we will see.

    Jeremy Corbyn will surely have to resign. This is beyond awful for him and the Labour Party.
     
  16. malakas

    malakas Member

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    If the exit poll figures turn out to be correct, this is how much the parties would be gaining or losing compared to two years ago.

    Conservatives: 368 - up 51

    Labour: 191 - down 71

    SNP: 55 - up 20

    Liberal Democrats: 13 - up 1

    Plaid Cymru: 3 - down 1

    Greens: 1 - no change

    Brexit party: 0

    Others: 22 (18 of these will be Northern Ireland MPs)

    As expected the SNP rolled over Scotland.

    It looks like it's projected that the Tories didn't in fact lose London..?
     
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  17. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Hmm who knows. Maybe he will change his deal and backtrack and have a harder Brexit.

    I am not one to underestimate Johnson lying.
     
  18. malakas

    malakas Member

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    You have to go back to 1974 for an exit poll like this to be so wrong.
    At most the difference will be about 10 seats.
     
  19. malakas

    malakas Member

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  20. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    What is also interesting about that to me is how Labour has been wiped out in Scotland. How can they hope to be a majority party in the foreseeable future if they cannot win in Scotland?
     

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