AP-NORC poll: 62% disapprove of how Trump’s handling his job https://apnews.com/1ad13f32984a4480a45738ead2b4c0d8
At this point I really only care about individual state polling. Michigan, Penn, Wisc, Iowa, FL, and yes Texas. These general polls only really tell us what to expect with the popular vote which is a given. Trump isn’t changing... he’s losing the popular vote.
Everyone should read this article on the Wisconsin poll they did. https://crooked.com/articles/pollercoaster-2020-wisconsin/ The Dems have to win these states where it is STILL very close. We also don’t know what kinda of conspiracy theories will be trafficked in these states on Biden or Warren that could impact closer to the election. Anyone who thinks Trump cant win is fooling themselves. Then again if he lose Wisconsin, it means he’s probably getting creamed and losing all the other key states like FL, and maybe Texas which would crush the GOP.
This is still a toss up 2020 election IMO, Trump's base is very loyal. Everyone who is against Trump have to come out for the Democrats in order to remove agent orange from the white house.
Yeah I think the push for Never Trumpers to create a third party or primary to suck in Trump voters will ultimately backfire & help Trump. The contrast needs to be Trump vs. a Sane Adult. Not the ideologies of Conservative vs. Dems. Creating a primary challenge will hurt Trump in a way (suck resources, have a member of his own party bashing him daily, etc.) but in the general, assuming Trump wins a primary, those voters that were never Trumpers will be left with a decision that is based on "well I preferred another Republican vs Trump, but I'll stick with Trump just because he's not a socialist" vs. those never Trumpers making the case to those voters now that they MUST vote for the Dem. The primary process on the right just allows those voters to think that Conservativism regardless is still better than voting Dem. It's encouraging them to stay on the team which makes them more likely to hold their nose and vote or Trump again. The case from a Joe Walsh type needs to be made to voters that "I know you don't like Democrats typically, but its a must to create balance again in our Democracy & remove Trump from office. After the GOP gets wiped out, you have my blessing for us to reform the party in 2021, but for now.... VOTE DEM". But yes I keep coming back to this poll as a great example of your point... its a toss up base turnout election, and Wisconsin is the state to watch now. The signs are there that he can still win if those voters stick with them. They just might if the Dems don't run an amazing general election to turnout every vote imaginable in these key states: https://crooked.com/articles/pollercoaster-2020-wisconsin/
I was a firm believer in this being a tight race. but now I am starting to think this will be a landslide. I just don't see Trump getting that same enthusiasm to vote for him in 2016 and no candidate will be as despised as Hillary. And he still won on a razor thin margin. i think this will be a turnout vote and I don't see Trumps base as enough to overcome the anti Trump vote.
I am still pessimistic since I believe republicans will still vote for "the republican" no matter how much they know or believe about what he does and/or has done. Hopefully I am wrong...
I have to agree with you they will as they always have vote for party over what's best for the country.
Trumps base is less than 15% - the republicans represent about 42%....overall - so there is 27% republicans that trend from conservative to centrist. DD
They voted for him in record numbers in 2016 and he still barely won. It's not about the republicans, it's about swing voters and Democratic turnouts. I am not saying it's in the bag but it is a myth that he should be favored to be reelected.
